Kipchoge has been doing 40k mostly uphill training runs @ 8200 ft: yeah, he’s ready for Boston

Hmmm

Until Kiplimo runs one….

I think EK stays on top through Paris and then he retires with his record unblemished.

This is Kipchoge. If you can count on one athlete to be prepared, it's him. A side note: Jake Smith said that when he was training with Ugandan marathoners, they would do downhill fartleks. If they're doing that, I'm sure Kipchoge has practiced running down a few hills as well. I'm expecting another comfortable win for the great man.

There were those two underwhelming races in a row: London 2020 when he had an infection, and then that race around a Dutch airfield where he ran 2:04. I had my doubts after that and I thought the slide had begun. He then dominated the Olympics, broke the course record in Tokyo, and ran the WR in Berlin. He's waging the most successful war against Father Time that we've ever seen. Across all sports, only LeBron James is comparable in terms of continued excellence so late in their careers. Even someone like Federer and Serena Williams, though still very good, were not at the very top of their sports when they were 38/39.

It will be raining and windy and near freezing, and Yuki Kawauchi will PASS him at 40k and destroy his dreams in 2:14.

Only 40k? He’s gonna get whooped by CJ!!!

Source?

2013 Berlin and 2020 London.

He is undoubtedly the GOAT of marathoning but unblemished is not completely accurate.

So this guy Eliot Kipchoke thinks he can take down CJ Albertson? Yeah right!

2013 berlin wasn’t a bad race by any means,

do you remember who beat him?

Boston does not favor the fastest/swiftest athlete. It is a very unpredictable race that catches us off guard year after year. The downhill start (first 15K) leaves the legs dead and not as responsive. This is a sensation that no athlete chasing time will want to feel. Then the pounding starts up hill/ down hill. pace/HR jump all over the place and not in a good way. You are adjusting to to this not so well. maybe losing time. Then the disintegration of form and energy resources hits with 9K remaining. Down hill and more down hill. I will be more than impressed if Kipchoge on his first attempt runs a CR and effortlessly runs away for his competitors like in the past. Boston is unlike any course on the elite schedule. Eccentric loading from the very start and how efficient he can handle this is a different beast to master than a flat or gently rolling course. Good luck to the athletes, this is a master class athlete attempting something great.

Yes, I didn’t mean to say he was undefeated. London 2020 was a “blemish,” but who has the next best winning percentage with 10 or more marathon major, wc, Olympic races and what is it? I think from here to the end of his career, say Boston 23, NY 23 (?), something very fast spring 24 to try to get under 2:01(?), Paris 24, he runs the table, and yes, gets a 2:00:59 somewhere. Back to Berlin this fall instead of NY? Not sure….

Yeah, a second place 2:04:05 in Berlin and a 8th place in the 2020 London Marathonwith a time of 2:06:49 are blemished races.

I wish I was that "bad".

In the words of Captain Pete Mitchell, "Maybe so sir, but not today."

In spite of all that, many elite runners have been successful there.

You're describing unprepared hobby joggers.

Any well prepared elite runner would fly down those hills, and hold their own quite well on the uphills, which at Boston are hardly anything to speak of.

I am hoping this race will be an absolute slugfest, ultimately with Kipchoge coming out on top. Not necessarily worried about time, but it would be awesome to see him come away with the CR. Certainly this is the best opportunity he has to give it a shot.

Would I be surprised if he outclasses the field and ran away with it? No.

Would I be surprised if he gets outclassed and repeats the London 2020 finish? No.

Somehow Kipchoge's career gets more and more interesting as he ages. I know one day he will fall short to the up and comers, but I'm enjoying watching him for now.

If he is doing 40k hilly training runs, he is probably training on a lot of downhills. I doubt he is getting driven/transported back down the hills in these long workouts.

Maybe for the first downhill 10k or a bit more. Then, after that (unless they switch the race to a treadmill), as they like to say in Boston, "It's OOH- vahhh!"

You do not suddenly fall off a cliff with your performances due to age. It's a slow decline. And he ran a PR six months ago. There has been zero evidence he is slowing down. And remember that this is a downhill course, so a 2:04 equivalent on a different course would result in a 2:03 or better at Boston. Just really depends on the weather, a strong headwind would negate the net downhill. If he has a strong tailwind he could run sub 2:01.