How fast would I have to be to transfer to an elite d1 program?

Also I should say I'm smart but not Ivy smart

Verse 1:
Yo, listen up, I'm on a mission to go
From D3 to a blue-blood flow
I got dreams of CU and the like
But first I gotta prove I can spike
My times, they're good, but not great
I got a disaster injury, can't escape my fate
But I'm determined, I don't party or drink
I'm focused on the track, that's what I think

Chorus:
I'm gonna run faster than the rest
Gonna put my skills to the test
From D3 to blue-blood, I'm on my way
I'll work hard every single day

Verse 2:
To transfer to the big dogs, I need to grind
My PBs are good, but they're not prime
I gotta shave off some seconds, make it quick
To be a top prospect, I gotta be slick
The 1500's my event, I'll own the mile
Gonna put in the work, stay for a while
To be a real contender, I need to run
A sub-4 minute mile, that's where I'm gunnin'

Chorus:
I'm gonna run faster than the rest
Gonna put my skills to the test
From D3 to blue-blood, I'm on my way
I'll work hard every single day

Verse 3:
But even if I don't make it to CU
I won't stop chasing what I wanna do
I'll keep pushing, keep getting better
My dreams won't fade, they'll just get wetter
And if I end up at Gonzaga or Nova
I'll still be proud, I won't be no poser
I'll give it my all, and that's a fact
Gonna run fast, no turning back

Chorus:
I'm gonna run faster than the rest
Gonna put my skills to the test
From D3 to blue-blood, I'm on my way
I'll work hard every single day

Outro:
So watch out, I'm on the rise
Gonna shock the world, it's no surprise
From D3 to blue-blood, I'm making moves
Gonna leave my mark, it's time to groove.

Not saying it's impossible but you are not likely to ever get to a level where a top 5 school would take you / need you. That's not a personal slam, just an observation that you have solid (but not impressive) HS PRs along the lines of what probably 200-300 HS juniors have each year. Just work on improving each year at your D3 school and re-evaluate where you stand in that 3rd year. You are getting way ahead of yourself if you are already envisioning yourself running at a place that is competing for DI XC titles each year. Incremental gains are what you should focus on by season (either PRs or increases in training volume).

Sub 30 min 10k on 60 mpw.

It's not happening given your PRs. And that's okay. You could still run elsewhere just need more realistic expectations.

Well to defend myself somewhat, I have talked to a runner friend who is working on being a pt, he said I'd probably be running these times as a junior if not for the injury, which means I'm probably a 4:10 or under talent with poor circumstances. I dont find it totally unbelievable that a guy who could have run that fast could go to a blue blood. However, I'm not totally delusional, I think if I could even get on any of those teams I'd squeak on with no money.

I am legitimately just curious what it would take to run at these top schools. I am aware its very likely, but some guys go nuclear in college, and I dont think thats impossible. Also, if anyone would know how fast I'd have to be to go to a school around 20th-30th best in the nation, I would be very interested in that as well.

Once aguin, genuinely just curious. Ignore my prs if you'd like.

I think if you could break 4 you could do it. No scholarship money, because you’d only be there for a year but a guy like that can potentially score some points at conference or maybe regionals, can’t hurt to have another pair of legs. Far from a guarantee, but not impossible. I think if you have an awesome spring and run 4:12 you could definitely do it, but you haven’t run too fast in the mile yet. If you only run 4:18 or something I think that would be damn hard

It can happen. Matt Wilkinson didn't make it to state in high school track (he was in a tough section), went to D3 Carleton, became national champion, transferred to Minnesota, and this week he was the top college finisher at the Raleigh Relays steeplechase and was named USTFCCCA National Athlete of the Week.

His improvement is unusual, but don't ever say someone can't do it.

You may not get to your preferred college, but every year there are decent DI teams that need to fill roster spots. Enter the transfer portal and see where it takes you.

coach at an almost top tier program told me 4:12 for an underclassman, 4:04 for an upperclassman

Do you know the standards needed to transfer to a college like Penn/Duke or even better?

Others on threads like this have said that as an upperclassman transfer you have to have times ready to be top 7 in XC or scoring points at the conference meet in track or at some schools even make it to nationals.

Sounds accurate, but really I have no idea. If you have specific schools in mind go look at their rosters and see it what the bottom end of their varsity runners look like.

Minnesota doesn't have indoor track. So yes he transferred sort of. This kid is asking about Wisconsin or OK State or Stanford. Itnwould take sub 4 mile or 13:45 5000.

Thanks

Being a D1 regional qualifier and potential conference scorer would be a good start. So approx 1:48, 3:42, 13:50, or low-29:00s. Coming from D3 you might be able to make it work with a low-14:00s 5k or ~3:45 1500.

Mark whetmore has definitely let slower guys on his team. You might not race a lot but training with the team in that area, getting your masters at a good school, and just living the life in boulder sounds like a good deal to me if you are cool with it. Can’t hurt to try. If they say you aren’t good enough then you can’t really have hurt feelings because this program literally has trained Olympic athletes. I feel like you are going to buy into a system somewhere and be a way better runner in a year.

Hoping to do the same thing. Am currently a freshman and should be in sub 14:00 shape by the end of the season, but I don't like my school. My parents told me to stay one more year (which, in my opinion, was dumb - I'd rather have 2 chances instead of 1), but I'm like 90% sure I'll be entering the transfer portal next year

Coaches have all different ranges on what type of kids they want as a transfer If you have 1 year of eligibility and have run sub 14 and are free, pretty much everyone will give you a shot. If you are a 14:30 kid, they would rather spend that spot on some HS kid who ran 9:10. There are always some coaches who have space to let in a slower kid and a few who only want proven national scorers. When it is time, you will have to talk to some and see what they say.

Playing the would of or should of game is useless. You will run what you run. In 2 years you will either have kept improving to be a 4:05/14:00 guy or you will have stalled. All you can do is put in the work and see where you end up. As you say plenty of people have improved a ton in college from the combo of higher training loads and maturity. Focus on winning some titles and if you are good enough opportunities will open up.

I'd say this is a pretty solid estimate. Coaches tend to take on older transfers with much quicker times than their younger transfers, so you gotta have some solid and consistent improvement if you want to transfer as grad. However, it really depends on the style of the coach and how full the roster is, how many years of eligibility you have left, etc etc. As someone who transferred from a D3 to a consistently nationally ranked D1 off of pretty mediocre freshman times (like 5:04 in mile-women) I think its totally doable. Another piece of advice (take it or leave it, but letsrun is built for unsolicited advice) is to focus on a program and coach that work for you, not a status that you want. In my transfer search, I had a chance at much "flashier" programs, in terms of gear, facilities etc, but focused on the coaching philosophy.