The Youngs have always been forthright about their goals and racing schedules, so if they say the 10k is not on their radar, then no reason to doubt them.
Nico didn't get the full spring senior campaign because of the pandemic. He ran the 7:56 early in the season and then got in a 13:50 5000m in hot conditions with poor pacemaking but most of the season was gone. However, it's arguable that both of the twins are faster this year, with the possible exception of xc (Nico has the dominant titles, but Leo was first at world qualifying and 16th at World Jr. XC). Lex already ran nearly the same 3k as Nico, but as a junior last year, and while he's behind Nico in fitness right now, he has every shot at breaking 4, 8:30, and 13:37 this year after running 13:43 last year along with 3:47 and 14 already this month. Leo has already run well under 4 flat converted with his 3:40.86, and backed it up in windy conditions with a 3:42.2 and a 1:51. I see them as potentially breaking 7:50 and 8:30 and having a shot at breaking 13:30. Chapa's record won't be touched this year but I actually don't think it is as strong as people here are saying. High schoolers in this country almost never run track 10k's, and getting it would require at least a 13:45 5000m time (figure about 30 seconds slowdown per 5k from 5 to 10k), which has been done in hs by Ritz (who stood a great shot at it), Gerry Lindgren, Lex Young, and Galen Rupp.
I think they can both definitely take down 13:37. Lex was only 5 seconds off a year ago, and Leo might be better. I'm glad they're skipping CIF. Literally no one cares about winning a state title in HS, but people remember fast times and records. No one says "Fernandez was such a good runner he got 2 state titles his senior year" they talk about how crazy a 4:00/8:35 double is. As long as they hit a few races with other top HSers, I'm happy.
The Fernandez double existed because it was in the CIF state meet. It was the biggest part of his legend after the Mount SAC course record.
Agree with this. If Lex and Leo want to skip CIF that's fine, obviously, but I think getting state titles in the dominant manner that Fernandez did is what make you have a legendary resume. I'm also a little surprised they don't want more individual state titles but it seems like they're more interested in fast times and racing against college/pro competition. Also the fact that German owns the state meet xc record, 1600 record, and 3200 record is a competitive state like CA is just insane.
Maybe it’s just me, but I view the times people are talking about in regards to the Youngs differently than great high school times. I look at them as being trained by a college coach, not practicing with their high school team and competing against collegians and pros. So, more like college athletes. When their times are compared to other college runners, they’re good, but not as crazy as if they were running those times at high school meets, running in the typical high school environment. I think they’re super talents, but their upside doesn’t seem quite as high knowing their college situation probably won’t be drastically different than it is now, where other top high schoolers may see a huge jump in college, coming from a traditional high school situation.
When their times are compared to other college runners, they’re good, but not as crazy as if they were running those times at high school meets, running in the typical high school environment.
Yeah the typical high school phenom who runs 3:40 and 13:43 as a junior in highschool meets on 30 miles a week in the typical highschool environment.
Maybe it’s just me, but I view the times people are talking about in regards to the Youngs differently than great high school times. I look at them as being trained by a college coach, not practicing with their high school team and competing against collegians and pros. So, more like college athletes. When their times are compared to other college runners, they’re good, but not as crazy as if they were running those times at high school meets, running in the typical high school environment. I think they’re super talents, but their upside doesn’t seem quite as high knowing their college situation probably won’t be drastically different than it is now, where other top high schoolers may see a huge jump in college, coming from a traditional high school situation.
That low upside runner is a sophomore in the NCAA with a 13:11.
You don't get credit for running a sub-4 minute mile for a sub-4 conversion from 1500m, but you are intrinsically a 3:57-58 miler if you run 3:40.86. So, what is exactly the stupidity of saying that it is worth what the 1.08x factor says it is worth (that is, 3:58.5)?
Does the fact that they are literally being coached by the guy who was their high school coach for the previous three years not register for you? It's the same guy.
Maybe it’s just me, but I view the times people are talking about in regards to the Youngs differently than great high school times. I look at them as being trained by a college coach, not practicing with their high school team and competing against collegians and pros. So, more like college athletes. When their times are compared to other college runners, they’re good, but not as crazy as if they were running those times at high school meets, running in the typical high school environment. I think they’re super talents, but their upside doesn’t seem quite as high knowing their college situation probably won’t be drastically different than it is now, where other top high schoolers may see a huge jump in college, coming from a traditional high school situation.
Like Galen Rupp? I remember the no upside arguments about Nico/Tuohy/Ritz/Rupp/Webb before as well. This mentality is stupid.
Its too bad Jakob didn't train with his HS team, maybe he would have more upside now.
You don't get credit for running a sub-4 minute mile for a sub-4 conversion from 1500m, but you are intrinsically a 3:57-58 miler if you run 3:40.86. So, what is exactly the stupidity of saying that it is worth what the 1.08x factor says it is worth (that is, 3:58.5)?
There is a small list of high schoolers that have actually run a sub-4min mile. It is somewhat off-putting and disrespectful to diminish that accomplishment by trying to join that select group with a bogus conversion of a different distance.
Does the fact that they are literally being coached by the guy who was their high school coach for the previous three years not register for you? It's the same guy.
It does. They’ve been training like college kids for several years. I think people are feeling like I’m knocking on them. I’m just saying the jump may not be as significant as others because their next environment will probably be pretty similar to what it is now. Doesn’t mean they won’t be good or improve, just means the probability of a big jump is less than some of the other elite kids coming from more traditional high school programs.
I think they can both definitely take down 13:37. Lex was only 5 seconds off a year ago, and Leo might be better. I'm glad they're skipping CIF. Literally no one cares about winning a state title in HS, but people remember fast times and records. No one says "Fernandez was such a good runner he got 2 state titles his senior year" they talk about how crazy a 4:00/8:35 double is. As long as they hit a few races with other top HSers, I'm happy.
The Fernandez double existed because it was in the CIF state meet. It was the biggest part of his legend after the Mount SAC course record.
Everybody talks about the Fernandez double because the 1600m and 3200m are races other HS runners actually run. It is a comparable for all HS runners. Nobody cares about the HS 5000m record, or the HS10000m record, or the HS marathon record, or the HS steeplechase record. Almost nobody runs those races in HS. Even if one of the Youngs sets one of those records, they will be remembered more for their races at RunningLane, Woodward Park and Arcadia. You know, HS races.
y’all read to deep into it! just let them run! I’m sure that they and their coaches have a reason for what they do! they are pretty good for the sport. I wonder what their next race is!
I don't follow the high school boys scene super closely, but from what I've seen, I'm not sure if you're correct. I've seen the Youngs say multiple times that their mileage tops out in the mid-60s as high school seniors. Hasn't Gorze been running in the 80s? Burns goes into the mid-70s every few weeks. I know mileage is just one piece of the equation, but I've also heard of some pretty intense workouts (Burns had a 10 mile tempo at 5 minute pace) from other top HS boys. If what the Youngs share about their high school training is true, I actually do think they're saving a good stretch of runway to improve further once they get to Stanford and bump up to the 90+ weeks those guys are doing.
Sure, the Youngs are training harder than the "average" high school runner, and probably more than the average kid who is state-champ caliber. But I haven't really seen evidence that they train any harder than their peers at the top of the 2023 class (or, for that matter, than their brother did in high school, and he's continued to improve significantly).
Young might have dipped significantly under 29:00 right after Worlds. The college runners very often profit from XC fitness with a very early season 5K to get in a qualifier. Heck, Ritz would have had a good 10K in him after his World XC run in HS. He2 never did better his 2 Mile HS PR during his senior year as he chased Lindgren. So Young's 1500 is actually pretty encouraging seeing as he was training for 8K until a month ago.
I don't follow the high school boys scene super closely, but from what I've seen, I'm not sure if you're correct. I've seen the Youngs say multiple times that their mileage tops out in the mid-60s as high school seniors. Hasn't Gorze been running in the 80s? Burns goes into the mid-70s every few weeks. I know mileage is just one piece of the equation, but I've also heard of some pretty intense workouts (Burns had a 10 mile tempo at 5 minute pace) from other top HS boys. If what the Youngs share about their high school training is true, I actually do think they're saving a good stretch of runway to improve further once they get to Stanford and bump up to the 90+ weeks those guys are doing.
Sure, the Youngs are training harder than the "average" high school runner, and probably more than the average kid who is state-champ caliber. But I haven't really seen evidence that they train any harder than their peers at the top of the 2023 class (or, for that matter, than their brother did in high school, and he's continued to improve significantly).
They were in the mid 60's as juniors and intended to slightly increase that as seniors (likely low to mid 70's). They've often stated that every mile is well thought out and that they are not afraid to hammer workouts when necessary (which merits can be debated). Some of their hard sessions of junior/senior years are very impressive.