There won't be unless the new rule is reversed in the court.
My point was that at some point down the line there would be an athlete wanting to compete.
That athlete "wanting to compete" will not come anywhere close to qualifying any WA sanctioned event.
If "wanting to qualify" counts, we already had Cece Telfer who tried to run in the 2021 Olympic Trial. She was declared ineligible because there was some lapse in her blood test data. But even if she had been eligible, she would have had the slowest time among all the qualifiers.
Future athletes like Telfer will be stopped at even lower levels. Now this WA rule will also be applied to NCAA, starting next season. Many states have copied the currentv NCAA policy for their HS sports. So they may copy the new policy again. There may still be some trans athletes in HS sports in some states, but none of them will be eligible for NCAA unless they started transitioning before puberty.
Better late than never. Better to be proactive than reactive--and this was a reactive change because damage was already being done. Women lost money, dignity and opportunity due to the woke mob. Seems ironic but these SJWs who push for nonsense are merely seeking self validation under the guise of helping everyone. Pure toxicity.
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Should have been stricter. Males can’t compete in female sport full stop.
The DSD regulation is interesting. Do they have some kind of data/example that suggests that DSD athletes who supress T below 2 mmol or whatever for 24 months loses their XY advantage?
How would that be measured? More to follow I’m sure.
While I agree that ALL biological males should be banned from competing against females, having the DSD biological males reduce their testosterone below 2.5 for 24 months will have the same effect.
Caster Semenya only had to reduce testosterone below 10 and Semenya wasn't competitive. So going below 2.5 means that no biological males will be anywhere close to being in the world top 10 in their event. Which then means that there won't be any more biological males taking away medals from females.
Plus the fact that there isn't a total ban means that this new rule will hopefully hold up in court. World Athletics had to make sure that the new rule wouldn't get overturned by a court and I think that allowing DSD biological males to still compete in female events (if they meet the new criteria) will make it very tough for Semenya and friends to get the new rule overturned.
If I'm reading this right, they only have 4 full months to squeeze in 6 months of reduced T so they can compete in Budapest? Last time they pulled this they at least arranged the window so it was achievable calendar wise. Bottom line: no DSD athlete can compete in Budapest unless they were ALREADY under supervised restriction and knew what the new rule was going to be?
" Interim provisions will be introduced for those relevant athletes who are already competing in what were the unrestricted events (distances below 400m and above one mile, plus field events). These provisions include a requirement to suppress their testosterone levels below 2.5nmol/L for a minimum of six months, before they are eligible to compete again. The six months period is consistent with the previous regulations, which required six months of testosterone suppression (below 5nmol/L) for DSD athletes to compete in the restricted events."
If I'm reading this right, they only have 4 full months to squeeze in 6 months of reduced T so they can compete in Budapest? Last time they pulled this they at least arranged the window so it was achievable calendar wise. Bottom line: no DSD athlete can compete in Budapest unless they were ALREADY under supervised restriction and knew what the new rule was going to be?
" Interim provisions will be introduced for those relevant athletes who are already competing in what were the unrestricted events (distances below 400m and above one mile, plus field events). These provisions include a requirement to suppress their testosterone levels below 2.5nmol/L for a minimum of six months, before they are eligible to compete again. The six months period is consistent with the previous regulations, which required six months of testosterone suppression (below 5nmol/L) for DSD athletes to compete in the restricted events."
They won't be eligible for Budapest, Seb Coe said that in the press conference.
If I'm reading this right, they only have 4 full months to squeeze in 6 months of reduced T so they can compete in Budapest? Last time they pulled this they at least arranged the window so it was achievable calendar wise. Bottom line: no DSD athlete can compete in Budapest unless they were ALREADY under supervised restriction and knew what the new rule was going to be?
" Interim provisions will be introduced for those relevant athletes who are already competing in what were the unrestricted events (distances below 400m and above one mile, plus field events). These provisions include a requirement to suppress their testosterone levels below 2.5nmol/L for a minimum of six months, before they are eligible to compete again. The six months period is consistent with the previous regulations, which required six months of testosterone suppression (below 5nmol/L) for DSD athletes to compete in the restricted events."
They won't be eligible for Budapest, Seb Coe said that in the press conference.
They also said that the 13 current DSD athletes competing in the non- restricted events (sprints and mile & above) have refused to suppress so far, so the interim restriction is a compromise to give them an opportunity to continue competing after 6 months. Otherwise the policy is 2 years. They have to agree to the restriction by July 1.
If I'm reading this right, they only have 4 full months to squeeze in 6 months of reduced T so they can compete in Budapest? Last time they pulled this they at least arranged the window so it was achievable calendar wise. Bottom line: no DSD athlete can compete in Budapest unless they were ALREADY under supervised restriction and knew what the new rule was going to be?
" Interim provisions will be introduced for those relevant athletes who are already competing in what were the unrestricted events (distances below 400m and above one mile, plus field events). These provisions include a requirement to suppress their testosterone levels below 2.5nmol/L for a minimum of six months, before they are eligible to compete again. The six months period is consistent with the previous regulations, which required six months of testosterone suppression (below 5nmol/L) for DSD athletes to compete in the restricted events."
They won't be eligible for Budapest, Seb Coe said that in the press conference.
Well I was thinking particularly of Niyonsaba but time will tell if she was already reducing and gets to run. Otherwise it looks like the rules had been deliberately set to equate to a total ban for this year.
If I'm reading this right, they only have 4 full months to squeeze in 6 months of reduced T so they can compete in Budapest? Last time they pulled this they at least arranged the window so it was achievable calendar wise. Bottom line: no DSD athlete can compete in Budapest unless they were ALREADY under supervised restriction and knew what the new rule was going to be?
" Interim provisions will be introduced for those relevant athletes who are already competing in what were the unrestricted events (distances below 400m and above one mile, plus field events). These provisions include a requirement to suppress their testosterone levels below 2.5nmol/L for a minimum of six months, before they are eligible to compete again. The six months period is consistent with the previous regulations, which required six months of testosterone suppression (below 5nmol/L) for DSD athletes to compete in the restricted events."
Yeah, I think they've been notified already. Niyonsaba ran 68:45 for the Lisbon half this month, which is quite a bit down on where you'd expect her to be.
Should have been stricter. Males can’t compete in female sport full stop. The DSD regulation is interesting. Do they have some kind of data/example that suggests that DSD athletes who supress T below 2 mmol or whatever for 24 months loses their XY advantage? How would that be measured? More to follow I’m sure.
It's very difficult for XY persons with testes and functioning male androgen receptors to lower their T to below 2.5 nmol/L using medication. They can only get their T that low by having their testes removed or going on a heavy-duty GnRH analog drug like Lupron that totally shuts down the production of gonadal and pituitary sex hormones. Such drugs come with a host of horrible "side effects." Even men with late-stage prostate cancer and no other treatment options are reluctant to take them.
Most males who "identify as" women but still have their balls (as most of them do) can't get their T below 2.5 nmol/L even when they take the standard regimen used today for "medical transition" - high-dose exogenous estrogen AND a strong testosterone suppressant (Spirolactone or cyproterone acetate).
Having such low T might be particularly difficult for some XY DSD athletes currently competing in women's elite athletics because some of them have conditions that can result in T levels that are high compared to males without DSDs.
For example, XY persons with the DSD that Caster Semenya has, XY 5-ARD, have been found to have T levels as high as 47.2 nmol/L - well above the 29.4 nmol/L that WA uses as the upper limit of the normal male reference range. Some persons with XY PAIS have been documented to have T levels of more than 68 nmol/L.
I doubt that having T below 2.5 nmol/L for 24 months would cause adult males to lose all their XY advantage, but it will definitely make them feel very poorly.
Semenya said that the time Semenya took BC pills to lower Semenya's T was "torture," like being "stabbed every day" - and back then, the upper limit Semenya had to reach was a much higher 10 nmol/L. Since 2.5 nmol/L is such a difficult goal to reach via medication alone, I suspect few XY DSD athletes will try. But those who do try and succeeed will definitely not be at their best.
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These rules now apply across all events, not just the 400-mile. That's Niyonsaba's career done for the second time. It's probably the right decision but I feel sorry for her to lose her world like that. At the same time, I also feel sorry for athletes like Alicia Monson who was denied what would have been by far the biggest win of her career by Nyonsaba in the DL last year.
Maybe Niyonsaba has known this was coming and has been lowering her testosterone in advance. Her results this year we're already pretty mediocre.
Agreed. I think that Niyonsaba should absolutely be prohibited from competing at her natural T-levels in the women's category, but we can acknowledge that this has to be very hard on DSD athletes. She probably grew up having no idea she didn't fit cleanly into either category. She played by the rules, had to reinvent herself as an athlete once already, and the rules keep changing.
Also, I can't help but respect the fact that she never fought these rules. (Though, I admit it's probably unfair to blame Caster Semenya for taking the best shot she had to preserve her career; I'd probably have done the same.)
They won't be eligible for Budapest, Seb Coe said that in the press conference.
Well I was thinking particularly of Niyonsaba but time will tell if she was already reducing and gets to run.
Otherwise it looks like the rules had been deliberately set to equate to a total ban for this year.
You're missing the main point.
Even if Niyonsaba started reducing testosterone below 2.5 on January 1 (making Niyonsaba eligible on July 1) Niyonsaba would be a shadow of her former self by the time of the World Championships in August. Niyonsaba wouldn't be in the ballpark of being competitive against the best biological females.
Look back at pre 2016 when Niyonsaba had to reduce testosterone below 10. Niyonsaba wasn't very good. Now Niyonsaba has to reduce testosterone all the way down to sub 2.5. If Niyonsaba couldn't be competitive at sub 10, theres no way that Niyonsaba would be competitive at sub 2.5 .
Any way you look at it, Niyonsaba's career is permanently over unless there is a successful challenge in court. 4 months vs 6 months is irrelevant.
Itll be interesting to see what happens to her,christine mboma,beatrice masilingi and aminatou seyni.I wonder if the two namibians and seyni will try to suppress their testosterone,and return to the 400 meters?thatll be interesting.i think mboma could still do reasonably well in the 400,because shes so young.
Itll be interesting to see what happens to her,christine mboma,beatrice masilingi and aminatou seyni.I wonder if the two namibians and seyni will try to suppress their testosterone,and return to the 400 meters?thatll be interesting.i think mboma could still do reasonably well in the 400,because shes so young.
Mboma was my pick to win gold in the 200 outdoors this year. Guess that’s not happening.
Itll be interesting to see what happens to her,christine mboma,beatrice masilingi and aminatou seyni.I wonder if the two namibians and seyni will try to suppress their testosterone,and return to the 400 meters?thatll be interesting.i think mboma could still do reasonably well in the 400,because shes so young.
From the way it sounded in the press conference, any DSD athletes currently competing in the restricted categories 400m-1 mile (which they are currently allowed to do if they lower testosterone to 5 nmol for 6 months) will now have to restrict testosterone to 2.5 for 2 years. But it wasn't totally clear.
Coe also said that WA does not believe lowering to 2.5 is enough for the sprints to be fair.