Noonan with his fourth sub-14:00 clocking this season. Has that been done before?
A lot of posts on here have been reported as "factually incorrect" but we have not deleted them as we don't follow the CA HS scene and don't know what is factually incorrect. If you want to email us about something you know to be factually incorrect, please do so at letsrun@letsrun.com.
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According to this interview, FastHorse was sick before the race
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San Clemente - #1 in the merge
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Highly doubt it, just until recently sub 14 was nearly unheard of at the high school level.
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hulnne wrote:
San Clemente - #1 in the merge
I mean it makes sense. They ran in the most competitive division and earlier time. Although I will state that they are a flat course team and wouldn’t be surprised if Great Oak beats them at Woodward. Dana had a subpar race with no competition. They will be better next week when running against Oakdale. But wouldn’t be surprised as well if the didn’t end up first in the merge because of running at a later time than D1. Still Dana has beaten San Clemente the past three times they’ve gone against one another.
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Any word on Westin Brown? Will he be running at the state meet?
It will be hard for Great Oak to autoqualify if he doesn’t return
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Coach B
you are just a grumpy old man that can’t coach. You have had one 800 guy and you think you are something special. All of us think you are so strange to post on the board all the time with all the high school kids. I just could not hold back. I will make sure to say hi next time you walk by with your boot on.
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tryouts wrote:
Curiousinbama wrote:
Hi, I'm not sure if this is the right place, but I'm looking at some of the times for the Orange County schools, and their slowest runner is still so fast. Do these schools have B teams? So for instance a freshman boy who could run maybe a 7 minute mile still gets to run? For example, looking at a school like Dana Hills, do they have freshman squads, jv squads? How are tryouts even conducted? Do they just have everybody run a 5k, and if you can't do it something like 18 minutes you get cut?
I believe Dana does have time trials to make it on the team. Last I heard, freshman had to run under 20 mins for 3 miles. For Sophomores and above, I think its faster than 19 mins. Dana used to be D1 (2470+ students) and currently is D3 (1481-2020 students). They do have a frosh, soph, and jv squads.
Good to know. They have such a strong program. Maybe because of all the hills in the Dana Point/Laguna Niguel area!
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Looking ahead at Clovis weather Saturday 11/25. It looks amazing. Mid 50’s to low 60’s. Sunshine. No wind. Dew point around 40 degrees. Should be a PR party.
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Southern section speed ratings
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Tully's SRs for the SS finals has 14:00 as a speed rating of 188, exactly the same as Woodbridge, and that was the number I was expecting after looking over several runners who I thought were running all out and a similar level of performance. The times matched up well. Most of the top teams had very few season best performances, but some teams (Santa Barbara and Millikan) looked better in this race than all season.
I collected the average boys speed ratings (top 5 runners) across the different sections that were speed rated (just the section finals race, not season best scores), and came up with the following list combining the divisions (I only used Tully pre-calculated teams, so the SS ends at Newbury Park, even though there were plenty of other teams in the mid 160s):
1 Dana Hills (SS) 178.6
2 San Clemente (SS) 177.6
3 Great Oak (SS) 175.2
4 Trabuco Hills (SS) 174.6
5 Ventura (SS) 174.4
6 Clovis East (CS) 173.8
7 Santa Barbara (SS) 173.6
8 Beckman (SS) 173.2
9 Mira Costa (SS) 173
10 Oakdale (SJ) 172.2
11 Millikan (SS) 171.2
12 ML King (SS) 171
13 Crescenta Valley (SS) 170
14 Newbury Park (SS) 168.4
15 Buchanan (CS) 168
16 Westview (SD) 167.4
17 San Luis Obispo (CS) 166.2
18 Ponderosa (SJ) 164.2
19 Bellarmine College Prep (CCS) 163.6
20 Matilda Torres (CS) 163.6
21 Canyon Crest Academy (SD) 163.4
22 St. Ignatius College Prep (CCS) 162.6
23 Jesuit (SJ) 161.8I realize an argument is that the SS finals are much more competitive, and teams have a real incentive to run hard, where top teams in other sections don't. But...12 of top 14 teams were from the southern section. Including Millikan that **didn't even qualify for the state championships**! We will see how this holds up when matched up at the state champs, and I assume it won't be this extreme. Oakdale at #10 is a prime candidate to move up if their top 5 are healthy.
I am hoping that next year is different. I have high hopes for Buchanan and Jesuit to be NXN qualifying level teams. And the southern section this year is very senior heavy, and may not be as strong next year.
Aside from all that, it is still impressive that 11 teams in one sub section of a state had an average team SR of 170 or higher on the same day.
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Missinger wrote:
Any word on Westin Brown? Will he be running at the state meet?
It will be hard for Great Oak to autoqualify if he doesn’t return
Westin Brown is not listed on the entries list that you can see from a Rich Gonzalez X post.
If things go as they did at SS finals, there is very good chance GO won't make NXN. But they are deeper than San Clemente, Dana Hills and Oakdale, and those teams don't have much margin for subpar performances from their top 5, so an auto-bid is still very much in play.
If NXN doesn't happen for them, they could also do very well at RunningLane if they chose to go there.
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WaitForMoreData wrote:
Missinger wrote:
Any word on Westin Brown? Will he be running at the state meet?
It will be hard for Great Oak to autoqualify if he doesn’t return
Westin Brown is not listed on the entries list that you can see from a Rich Gonzalez X post.
If things go as they did at SS finals, there is very good chance GO won't make NXN. But they are deeper than San Clemente, Dana Hills and Oakdale, and those teams don't have much margin for subpar performances from their top 5, so an auto-bid is still very much in play.
If NXN doesn't happen for them, they could also do very well at RunningLane if they chose to go there.
Great Oak also got beaten pretty handedly last year in cif finals but beat san clemente at state and nxn. I wouldn’t count them out considered they run the same strat every year since when soles was there it always works somehow.
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Here are the current rankings using this years best speed ratings for each individual, and creating a team score using my "Cal merge scoring", which is using a table based on the last 3 years data for the Cal merge, and mapping a speed rating to the number of points that would score in a average merge.
1 San Clemente 213.8
2 Dana Hills 237.7
3 Great Oak 289.1 (W. Brown is not included)
4 Ventura 315.6
5 Trabuco Hills 371.1
6 Oakdale 378.4
7 Beckman 396.5
8 Mira Costa 405.2
9 Clovis East 450.9
10 Santa Barbara 468
11 Glendora 511.9
12 Crescenta Valley 512.9
13 ML King 513.6Oakdale only has 1 really competitive race that was speed rated (Clovis). Many other teams have about 5 races. As somewhat expected if everyone runs their best, the pack is pretty tight. Usually it takes a score of much less than 200 to win. For comparison, although in the actual race last year the #1 team was extreme, the rest of the top 10 were not as tightly bunched. The actual team scores:
1 Newbury Park 52 1:14:34
2 Great Oak 214 1:17:58
3 San Clemente 264 1:18:18
4 Granada 303 1:18:35
5 Oakdale 361 1:18:31
6 Ventura 442 1:18:54
7 Crescenta Valley 550 1:19:54
8 Crystal Springs Uplands 577 1:20:04
9 San Luis Obispo 579 1:19:42
10 St. Francis 602 1:20:1520 -
How can we fill TR’s missing ratings for NCS?
i.e. Campolindo girls + Hanne Thomsen,
Granada boys + Trey Caldwell
They ran last Saturday on a very muddy rainy course, so results are useless.
Both schools have very high variance for runners 4,5. So each of them can surprise in both directions.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.10 -
Rar76 wrote:
How can we fill TR’s missing ratings for NCS?
i.e. Campolindo girls + Hanne Thomsen,
Granada boys + Trey Caldwell
They ran last Saturday on a very muddy rainy course, so results are useless.
Both schools have very high variance for runners 4,5. So each of them can surprise in both directions.
I wonder if Tully held off on NCS speed ratings because times were so slow.
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WaitForMoreData wrote:
Missinger wrote:
Any word on Westin Brown? Will he be running at the state meet?
It will be hard for Great Oak to autoqualify if he doesn’t return
Westin Brown is not listed on the entries list that you can see from a Rich Gonzalez X post.
If things go as they did at SS finals, there is very good chance GO won't make NXN. But they are deeper than San Clemente, Dana Hills and Oakdale, and those teams don't have much margin for subpar performances from their top 5, so an auto-bid is still very much in play.
If NXN doesn't happen for them, they could also do very well at RunningLane if they chose to go there.
We’re they just taking the roster from the state meet? The lineup may be different than the entries list.
Because I found the entries list from last year. Guevara/Schohn were listed on the Newbury Park entries list (because they ran in the section finals), but Cantu/Shetty ran in the actual state meet like they should have. And Granada’s Bromley was listed instead of Walton who ran at the state meet / NXN.00 -
Missinger wrote:
WaitForMoreData wrote:
Westin Brown is not listed on the entries list that you can see from a Rich Gonzalez X post.
If things go as they did at SS finals, there is very good chance GO won't make NXN. But they are deeper than San Clemente, Dana Hills and Oakdale, and those teams don't have much margin for subpar performances from their top 5, so an auto-bid is still very much in play.
If NXN doesn't happen for them, they could also do very well at RunningLane if they chose to go there.
We’re they just taking the roster from the state meet? The lineup may be different than the entries list.
Because I found the entries list from last year. Guevara/Schohn were listed on the Newbury Park entries list (because they ran in the section finals), but Cantu/Shetty ran in the actual state meet like they should have. And Granada’s Bromley was listed instead of Walton who ran at the state meet / NXN.Were* they just taking the roster from the state meet?
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WaitForMoreData wrote:
Here are the current rankings using this years best speed ratings for each individual, and creating a team score using my "Cal merge scoring", which is using a table based on the last 3 years data for the Cal merge, and mapping a speed rating to the number of points that would score in a average merge.
1 San Clemente 213.8
2 Dana Hills 237.7
3 Great Oak 289.1 (W. Brown is not included)
4 Ventura 315.6
5 Trabuco Hills 371.1
6 Oakdale 378.4
7 Beckman 396.5
8 Mira Costa 405.2
9 Clovis East 450.9
10 Santa Barbara 468
11 Glendora 511.9
12 Crescenta Valley 512.9
13 ML King 513.6Oakdale only has 1 really competitive race that was speed rated (Clovis). Many other teams have about 5 races.
I’m a little surprised that Ventura is up there this high based on the later results.
Must have peaked early.
D1 and D3 are much stronger than the division they are in (D2).
If they want to get top 2 in the merge, they will need to do more than just win.
Seems like Trabuco Hills is getting close to where we thought they would be before the season started
This year San Clemente could win their first D1 boys state title
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Looks like Tully has speed ratings from the NCS meet up now.
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