Rank in order of difficulty for Noah Lyles: 100m Gold, 18-second 200m, 400m WR

If he comes in shape like he was in during the WCs, he is winning the 100 and the 200m

Sub 19 is ridiculous, I don't think he can do it. I could see the 100m Gold, that is all about the start. He has better top-end than Coleman, Bracy, Kerley or Jacobs. Only Jacobs seems to be mostly immune to the pressure, though Coleman in 2019 was at a high level. Tebogo might be the real danger going forward, though. The 400m World Record I just can't see because he'd have to commit to it and he is insistent on doing the 100, even though the 400 would be the easier path to Gold.

So I'd go:
1) 100m Gold 2) 400m WR 3) Sub-19

If it was merely a 200m World Record, I'd slot it just behind 100m Gold.

There’s a line between confidence and being delusional. The easiest is obviously the 100m gold. Then I’d go with the 400wr even tho he doesn’t even do this event. The sub 19 is just ridiculous. There was a time when Bolt could of had a realistic chance at it but no one else shoukd even be considered.

anyone who is saying that 100m gold is unrealistic is crazy. 9.8 is winning major championships right now. Lyles is more talented than any of the top 100 guys right now. Kerley, bromell, crazylongjumper.

I’m not sure I can agree with that, Kerley has run 9.76 now and has proven very solid in the Olympics and WC finals. Jacobs has one of the highest top speeds, ever. He ran down Coleman in the 60 at the world indoor champs last year in a time .1 seconds faster than Lyles has ever run for the 60. If those two are healthy Lyles would have a very difficult time winning the 100, it could take a mid 9.7 to beat both of them. Lyles has never been a good starter and Kerley and Jacobs don’t fade at the end of the 100 the same way Bromell and Coleman do, so there’s little chance of Lyles running the two of them down even with his great speed endurance.

Agree with this. Lyles just ran a 6.51 60m dash, which means he has really finetuned his start. I could see him lowering that a few hundredths in the outdoor season, which would put a 9.7 well within his reach. Of the three feats, I think the 100m gold is by far the most likely.

Unless Noah has trained for the 400m, and has already tested his speed endurance in training to know that he can keep close to WR pace over that distance, I’m not sure how he would know his body can adjust to that distance. That being said, the way he was talking, it sounds like he has done some training for the long sprint.

As to the 200m, well he said as low as 18.6, which is just plain crazy talk.

As an aside, there were a couple of Lyles quotes in the article that I thought were pretty awesome, especially coming from a professional athlete:

“Confidence is a weird thing. There’s so many different key components to it. Some people gain confidence by having good practices back to back. Some people have confidence just by beating certain people. Some people have confidence by winning races. But for me, my confidence comes from the fact that I know that whatever I choose my goal to be, I will achieve it. Now, when I achieve it, I don’t get to determine, but I know that I will achieve it.”

“I feel that mental health is [presented as] ‘Oh, you need to go to therapy.’ That’s not mental health. Mental health is a part of everyday life. The fact that you look at your friend and see that they’re down and say, ‘Hey, you want to talk about it?’ Or, just maybe ‘I can help. Let me take a load off of you.’”

Pretty intelligent and articulate, certainly not your average sprinter.

When Johan Blake ran his 19.26, his reaction time was slower that .260 (.269 to be exact), so he netted sub-19. This was before the super shoes era. So with a very good reaction time, decent legal tailwind, and everything going right that day, it can be done.

Can Lyles do it? We'll see. Hard to stay healthy doing the 100-200 double as Tyson Gay found out in 2008 and Kerley found out last year.

I think the 400 WR would be the hardest for Lyles, mostly because he hasn't done anything of note yet in the 400.

I hope he achieves all 3 of his goals.

1. 18 second 200m

2. 400m world record

3. 100m Gold Medal

Both 18 second 200m AND 400m world record would be out this world for Lyles. I really can’t see him being a 400m record holder or an 18 second 200m runner. Depends on how fast he can run 400m and whenever he is close to his maximum potential in that distance.

Impossibl;e?

A low 19 200m guy? Impossible.??

We're not talking rtounds here, we're talking one run and out.

Everyone thought Bolt could do it. And he could have on a one off.

Very possible. But he wouldn't make a career of it. MJ should have run sub 43, but he made more money running 200s.

with a good rabbit and pace lights i’m sure both sub 19 and the 400 wr is doable for him

lol. his politics are 10 year old level.

Really off topic: but why am I seeing speed endurance thrown around so much for 100m? I’d assume they just don’t have the speed period, or mechanics to keep the ball rolling and fail to continue to accelerate after a good start. I can’t see the body running out of any kind of energy in under 10 seconds. Haven’t really looked into the science, but endurance doesn’t seem like the right word, maybe maintenance.

As for original topic:

100m/200m gold easily if you he comes back in 19.31 shape or faster. There’s not a lot of depth in either events since bolt retired. And it’s open season for a talent like Lyles to swoop in and get the double.

the 18.99 is impossible, but I like his attitude might drag him down to WR territory.

The 43.03 I think he should just forget about, I don’t think it’s impossible, but it’s like less than 1 percent that he achieves it.

Didn’t realize Lyles was a Congressman

Okay. Firstly. Noah is extremely wild for making these claims and it is pretty classic at this point. But for years I have had the opinion that he could run a sub-44 on his current training. His speed endurance is absolutely blisteringly absurdly different from anyone I've seen run the 200. He dropped a 300m indoor WR YEARS ago, and he is now faster than MJ over 200m. When he competes against Michael Norman in the 200m (I know it is not the same), it's pretty obvious Noah's speed endurance is better (which is crazy).

Of course Michael is likely to smoke him at the moment head to head in an outright 400m without preparation, but I think that Noah actually is one of three or four people currently competing who actually could break WVN's record. And after that 60m I think he can probably pull off a 9.7x. But all of that is speculative and does not take into account that having such broad goals is a disadvantage when it comes to achieving any individual one of them. As my late coach used to say: gotta be able to walk and chew gum at the same time.

Well, most people in America only understand politics at a 10 year-old level, so...

Also, some issues only require an understanding of a 10 year-old.

Anyway, I just thought it was kind of weird that someone said that they didn't like his politics.

I had no idea what his politics were. I thought, what, is he a Black conservative or something?

So I looked it up, and it was like, "Oh, okay." He did a little Black Lives Matter thing or whatever. And of course some people here (and in America in general) don't like that sort of thing, so that explained everything. So no big deal.

On topic:

Yes to a 100m gold.

No to a 18-second 200m. That person may not be born yet.

And don't waste your time on the 400m because it's not a prestige event at the level of the 100m... so don't waste your time.

No one is running a 9.7 anything off of a 6.51 60m. The fastest last 40 meters ever run was by Bolt in his world record and that took him 3.29 seconds. If Lyles could match that he would barely be able to run 9.80 seconds for the 100. That 3.29 seconds also contains Bolt's fastest 10 meter segment ever of .81 seconds, a speed which no one else has matched, let alone Lyles. Lyles 6.51 is probably indicative of about the same speed he had when he ran 9.86 for the 100, I hope he runs faster, I think Lyles is good for the sport, but I don't think we've seen anything at this point to indicate he will.

Meanwhile we have 3 active sprinters in Coleman, Bromell and Kerley that have 9.76 PRs to their name. Kerley ran 9.76 and 9.77 back to back at US nationals last year. Bromell just ran a 60 in 6.42 seconds, I don't think he liked getting nipped at the line by Lyles last week. Then there's Jacobs who has a 9.80 to his name and 6.41 60 to his name along with the Olympic gold and Indoor WC gold to match. Lyles would have to have a very good day to beat all 4 of these guys.

Personally I think the 400 record would be the easiest for Lyles, it fits his training and running style the most. He will also benefit from his Adidas super spikes in the 400 more than the 100 or 200. With a 19.3 second 200 PR he could very comfortably go out in about 20.5 seconds for the first 200 and he should have no problem finishing in less than 22.5 seconds for the second 200.

You must have missed the bolded. Anyways, the first 60m of an outdoor 100m is often faster for a sprinter than their indoors; Bingtian for example has run .13 faster outdoors than indoors, Bolt has run a 6.29 split outdoors, and Coleman has run a 6.32 split. So a 6.45 would be reasonable for Lyles.

Regarding the fastest last 40m, you are incorrect. Bolt himself ran a 3.27 last 40m. And while Gay's fastest 40m was from 50-90m, it was even faster at 3.25.

I can't find splits for Lyles's Shanghai Diamond League 100m run from 2019, but there is a YouTube video that claims he ran the first 60m of it in 6.64. He clocked 9.86 in that race, meaning his last 40m was run in 3.22. This of course sounds insanely fast, but then again Lyles's fastest indoor 60m at that point was 6.57, so that's not unreasonable. Video of the race shows him well behind at the 60m point.

All of which is to say, if he can drop his 60m just marginally, and run near his max top speed, he can definitely get into the 9.7's. He certainly ran better last year than he did in 2019.

Exactly. Hips don't lie.

Lyles first 30m (in 100m), going on his recent 60m races, is pretty slow by top 100m runner standards, but his top speed is right up there.

Maybe he can run in 9.7s this year with right conditions.