Official 2023 NBIGP Discussion thread- full event schedule, discussion and predictions

I predict the men’s mile will be a small bummer for U.S. fans with the top spots dominated by foreigners.

Although I’m not picking either of them to win, my word of advice for the casual fan is: fear the Irishmen. Luke McCann and Andrew Coscoran enter the race with strikingly similar form cards: both ran 3:53 at this race last year for 1st (Coscoran) and 3rd, both set 3:35.x 1500 PBs in 2022, and both won 1Ks in 2:19 in the U.S. last weekend.

Neil Gourley of Great Britain is another man to watch, having run 1:44.8/3:32.9/3:52.9 PBs last summer, and a solid 13:16 5k PB at BU in December. He placed 6th in the World Indoor Championships 1500 last March.

The man I’m picking to win has the second fastest 1500 PB in the field (behind the relatively floundering Charlie Grice), 22 year old Sam Tanner. Tanner ran 3:31.34 at last year’s Commonwealth Games to move to #5 all time in Oceania. He’s fit, having run a 3:54.56 outdoors in New Zealand last Saturday, and has performed well at this meet before: in 2021 he set a New Zealand indoor 1500 record of 3:34.72.

Top-8 predictions:

1. Samuel Tanner NZL 3:52.7

2. Andrew Coscoran IRL 3:53.5

3. Luke McCann IRL 3:53.9

4. Neil Gourley GBR 3:54.2

5. Sam Prakel USA 3:54.6

6. Hobbs Kessler USA 3:54.7

7. Isaac Nader POR 3:55.1

8. Johnny Gregorek USA 3:55.6

HS Boys Mile is outside the viewing window I believe..might be best race of the meet, ,\maybe watchable on other medium stream?

What has Hoey done to earn a spot on the starting line. he is not a rabbit that will be Swinski.

You can watch the whole meet. The first hour plus is on USATF.tv (but you need a runnerspace+login). The regular times (4-6pm est) are on NBC the NBC sports app.

Short of Athing Mu, Keely Hodgkinson or Gudaf Tsegay being in the race, it’s a fool’s move to bet against Ajee Wilson in an indoor 800, and I expect the reigning indoor world champion to keep her indoor win streak alive on Saturday. I don’t think it will be an easy slam dunk, however, as there’s a host of 1:58-2:00 type challengers in the field and we know some of them are in great shape.

Namely, I expect Olivia Baker and Kaela Edwards to put up a good fight. Baker, the 17th ranked 800m runner in the world who ran 1:58.x four times in 2022, has won both of her 800 races to open the year. After a 2:00.78 clocking over Heather MacLean at BU last weekend, in which her closing 200 was the second fastest off the race, she looks poised to require Wilson to run sub-2 indoors for only the 6th time in her career. Edwards looks as fit as ever, having won a 4:32/1:27 mile/600 double a few weeks ago and then eased away from the field at the Lilac Grand Prix in a 2:01.27 indoor PR—expect that PR to last for only 8 days.

Also deserving of a mention is 22 year old Briton Isabelle Boffey. Boffey has been on the radar since running 2:04.64 a month after her 17th birthday, but had stagnated at 2:01 the last 3 seasons. That changed 4 weeks ago when she clocked 2:00.99, a new PR indoors or out.

Predictions:

1. Ajee Wilson USA 1:59.5

2. Olivia Baker USA 1:59.8

3. Kaela Edwards USA 2:00.5

4. Isabelle Boffey GBR 2:00.9

5. Ellie Baker GBR 2:02.5

6. Sammy Watson USA 2:02.8

7. Kristie Schoffield USA 2:03.0

8. Lynsey Sharp GBR 2:03.9

The women’s 3k should be Laura Muir’s race to lose. The last time we saw Muir, who will turn 30 in May, she was crushing the field at the 5th Avenue Mile with a gutsy push from over halfway out to clock a stellar 4:15.0. One of the best 1500m women of all time, Muir is a handful at 3k with an 8:26.4i European record and two European indoor titles at the distance.

The greatest potential challenge could come from Ireland’s Ciara Mageean, one of the breakout stars of the 2022 outdoor season. After placing 2nd to Muir in the European Championship 1500, Mageean ran a massive 3:56.63 PR to upend Muir at the Brussels DL meet, and then backed it up by beating Muir again in the Zurich DL final, finishing 2nd only to 1500 GOAT Faith Kipyegon. It remains to be seen whether her breakthrough will translate to equally competitive 3k results, but it would be rather surprising if she wasn’t ready to take a chunk out of her 8:47.2i PR run in January of last year.

Other candidates to round out the podium include Melissa Courtney-Bryant of Great Britain (8:38.2i PR), Julie Ann Staehli of Canada (8:43.6i PR), and Olympic and Worlds 1500 finalist Marta Perez of Spain (8:44.4i PR).

Top-8 Predictions:

1. Laura Muir GBR 8:36.6

2. Ciara Mageean IRL 8:39.7

3. Marta Perez ESP 8:42.0

4. Melissa Courtney-Bryant GBR 8:43.7

5. Julie Ann Staehli CAN 8:44.0

6. Hannah Nuttall GBR 8:47.5

7. Katie Snowden GBR 8:48.0

8. Millie Paladino USA 8:51.1

Tanner does not win this race. Goes to Coscoran.

JG's meet preview is now out. Share it with your friends.

letsrun.com

A Fan's Guide To The 2023 New Balance Indoor Grand Prix: Lyles v Bromell, Sydney v Shericka, Kincaid Returns & a Loaded HS Mile

Jonathan Gault

World champions Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone & Shericka Jackson are both in the 60 while Grant Holloway is debuting in the 60 hurdles. Plus Connor Burns vs Simeon Birnbaum vs Aaron Sahlman in a LOADED boys HS mile.

Link:www.letsrun.com/news/2023/02/a-fans-gu...

For American fans, the men’s 800 is an early glimpse at our prospects of rebounding from a disappointing 2022 season in the event. Two of our Tokyo Olympians in Bryce Hoppel and Isaiah Jewett will have the chance to test their fitness against reigning World indoor champion Mariano Garcia of Spain.

Hoppel owns the fastest 800 PRs in the field both indoors (1:44.37) and out (1:43.23); this time 2 years ago he looked like the U.S.’s next 1:42 man and global medalist, but 2 years of injuries and lackluster performance have since tempered expectations. Jewett went from 1:43.85 in 2021 to a 1:45.68 SB last year, and only time will tell if that marks a trend or merely a period of transition.

Garcia won this race last year in 1:45.12 on his way to the indoor world title. He performed well outdoors, holding off Jake Wightman to win the European 800 championship in a 1:44.85 PR, but his diminutive build and shifty acceleration seems to make him especially dangerous indoors.

Other noteworthy competitors include: Daniel Rowden, whose 1:44.09 PR is 3rd fastest in the field; Mark English, 2022 European bronze medalist; Hiroki Minamoto, Japanese record holder at 1:45.75; and Kyle Langford, who let’s never forget once choked an official.

Predictions (I’m assuming Sowinski is pacing both this and the mile):

1. Bryce Hoppel USA 1:45.5

2. Mariano Garcia ESP 1:45.5

3. Mark English IRL 1:46.5

4. Kyle Langford GBR 1:46.6

5. Isaiah Jewett USA 1:46.9

6. Daniel Rowden GBR 1:47.3

7. Hiroki Minamoto JPN 1:49.5

8. Drew Piazza USA 1:49.9

Agree Wilson will likely win this.

I am excited to see Schoffield make her pro debut. She gave an interview recently on Citius pod. She almost quit the sport. Switched coaches and became a champion.

I would bill the women’s mile as a clash between 3:58.76 1500 performer Heather MacLean, and the new North American indoor record holder at 1k, Lucia Stafford—though without a doubt, there are several women with every right to take issue with that characterization.

MacLean is ranked #8 in the world at 1500; she’s the defending U.S. indoor champion and placed 7th in the 2022 World Indoor Championships at that distance. She opened her season with a 2:01.33 800 at BU last weekend, the second fastest indoor 800 of her career.

Nozomi Tanaka, 8th place in the Tokyo Olympic 1500, owns the second fastest PR of the field at 3:59.19.

Jemma Reekie is the 5th fastest indoor miler of all time with her 4:17.88 from Millrose 3 years ago—however, she entered that race fresh off a 1:57.91i British record, compared with a 2:02.10i for 5th out of 6 in Karlsruhe last week.

Cory McGee has run 4:00.x in each of the last two seasons and made the 1500 final at both the Tokyo Olympics and the Eugene World Championships.

But there’s a basic rule in running, that when you’re hot, you’re hot—and after running a 2:33.75i 1K Lucia Stafford is hot and she’s my pick to win. (2:33.75, by the way, is equivalent to 1:58.7/4:02.5/4:20.9 according to WA scoring tables).

Top-8 predictions:

1. Lucia Stafford CAN 4:23.2

2. Heather MacLean USA 4:24.5

3. Dani Jones USA 4:25.2

4. Jemma Reekie GBR 4:25.6

5. Cory McGee USA 4:26.5

6. Nozomi Tanaka JPN 4:26.8

7. Allie Wilson USA 4:28.7

8. Helen Schlachtenhaufen USA 4:29.1

The last little write-up I’ll do is for the men’s 3k. Coming off his 12:51.61 American indoor record, in which he ran the last 3k in 7:37.71 with a 26.27 closing 200, Woody Kincaid is obviously the man to beat. After a performance like that, it would seem that sub-7:30 and even a shot at Nuguse’s new 7:28.24i AR would be in his wheelhouse, but I don’t think anyone in this field will pull him to such a time, and he’s not the type of racer to force the tempo from a long way out.

That said, the target pace is said to be 7:30, and Ethiopia’s Addisu Yihune showed in the BU 3k that he’s inclined to run aggressively, having passed the pacer midway and split 5:01.1 through 2k. Fans wanting to see fast times should hope that Yihune volunteers as the de facto pacer once the hired rabbit drops out.

Kincaid and Yihune (a 12:58 man last year) are the only entries who could realistically approach 7:30–in fact, only one other man on the start list has ever broken 7:40, Germany’s Maximilian Thorwirth. Thorwirth has an odd history of showing up big time for this meet: the two best performances of his career were run here in 2021 (8:17.78 2 mile) and 2022 (7:38.14 3k); for that reason alone he’s someone to keep an eye on Saturday.

Brian Fay of U. Washington/Ireland ran a 3:52.03 mile at Dempsey last weekend, to go with two 13:16 clockings at 5k last year. He has a realistic shot to join the very exclusive but burgeoning NCAA sub-7:40 club if he has a good day.

More than any other race at this meet that I’ve made predictions for, I found it hard to decide who’d make my top-8 and who’d be omitted. Charles Philibert-Thiboutot was the last man cut, but he definitely has the credentials to race for top-5, and James West has the talent.

Top-8 predictions:

1. Woody Kincaid USA 7:32.6

2. Addisu Yihune ETH 7:34.8

3. Morgan Beadlescomb USA 7:39.1

4. Maximilian Thorwirth GER 7:39.6

5. Brian Fay IRL 7:39.8

6. Ben Flanagan CAN 7:40.8

7. Darragh McElhinney IRL 7:42.5

8. Mason Ferlic USA 7:45.7

I think Hoey would be the pacer?

Official schedule has the HS boys mile at 3:52 PM, but LRC preview has the race at 5:16. Hoping it is in the TV schedule, but I'm inclined to trust the official meet program more than an LRC preview.

The official schedule you linked to has the race at 5:16

Respectfully, the Boys mile is at 3:52PM as per the schedule. Women's 60m Hurdles is at 5:12 and Women's 800m is at 5:19.

2:00PM
Men's High Jump
2:40PM
Women's Masters Mile
2:50PM
Youth 4x200m Relay
3:00PM
Men's Masters Mile
3:10PM
Women's 60m Heat 1
3:18PM
Women's 60m Heat 2
3:27PM
Viva Tequila Seltzer Men's 60m Hurdles Heat 1
3:34PM
Viva Tequila Seltzer Men's 60m Hurdles Heat 2
3:42PM
Junior Girls' International Mile
3:52PM
Junior Boys' International Mile
4:02PM
Women's 500m
4:05PM
Women's Pole Vault
4:08PM
Men's 60m Heat 1
4:13PM
Men's 60m Heat 2
4:20PM
Women's 60m Final
4:28PM
Jesse Loubier Memorial Men's 400m
4:35PM
Women's Mile
4:44PM
Men's 800m
4:51PM
Women's 3000m
5:04PM
Viva Tequila Seltzer Men's 60m Hurdles Final
5:12PM
Women's 60m Hurdles
5:19PM
Women's 800m
5:26PM
Tommy Leonard Memorial Men's Mile
5:36PM
Men's 60m Final
5:43PM
New Balance Men's 3000m
5:55PM
New Balance Women's 300m
6:05PM
John P. Prendergast CHSAA Girls' Sprint Medley Relay
6:15PM
George T. Eastment CHSAA Boys' 4x800m Relay

So? I have now seen three listings for HS mile..which is a very very compelling event.

I saw 3:52 ..outside the window

5:12..easily inside

and 4:02, which I believe is a stretch given the preamble they usually do for intro?

Can someone connected.please confirm final schedule and time of the HS mile as well?

Thanks

Great write up thank you. Really excited about this one. Do you think it will be tactical?

I am rooting for Jemma Reekie to have a great performance as she seems to have had a long road back since having glandular fever.

The Irish national record in the 3000 is 7:38.59 by Alistair Cragg. I think Fay’s got a realistic shot at it.