Go in a grocery store and tell me things are good...
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11
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Knower of economics wrote:
applied economics wrote:
Show your math.
So many people don’t understand YoY vs monthly inflation rate. So naive. Prices are ~6% higher than a year ago but they’ve stayed constant since July.
Since July the monthly rates have been:0%, 0.1%, 0.4%, 0.4%, 0.1% and -0.1% through December. That’s 0.92% in aggregate since July. Not very hard math.
No… the total inflation since July 2022 is < 1%, so if things continue, the year starting in July 2022 -> June 2023 will have ~ 1.85% inflation or below average for yearly inflation from 2010-2020.
This is basic math. You guys just don’t want believe it.
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runnerboy70 wrote:
Go in a grocery store and tell me things are good...
I don’t shop at pricey millennial, hip stores. I pay $3.5 for ground beef. I posted the BLS calculated price averages. They are consistent with 2 years (2021,2022) of 6-7% inflation (~14%).
You cannot convince me with “feelings,” show data.
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Knower of economics wrote:
runnerboy70 wrote:
Go in a grocery store and tell me things are good...
I don’t shop at pricey millennial, hip stores. I pay $3.5 for ground beef. I posted the BLS calculated price averages. They are consistent with 2 years (2021,2022) of 6-7% inflation (~14%).
You cannot convince me with “feelings,” show data.
You should re-ask your mom what she pays for ground beef. If you're paying $3.50 per pound it's either 50% fat or it isn't beef.
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TheAdultInTheRoom wrote:
Knower of economics wrote:
Impressive backtracking. I’ll accept your retreat.
Inflation, as measured, is < 1% since July.You're confusing the month to month change with the actual value...
The actual value of what? Inflation is a function of what you are measuring and what interval your measuring it over. If you change the definition, the resulting values will change.
Republicans hated the decrease in unemployment in 2012, so they tried to change the definition for political reasons. Now you're trying to change the definition of inflation because you don't want the US to have a strong economy.
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OH...TX wrote:
TheAdultInTheRoom wrote:
You're confusing the month to month change with the actual value...
The actual value of what? Inflation is a function of what you are measuring and what interval your measuring it over. If you change the definition, the resulting values will change.
Republicans hated the decrease in unemployment in 2012, so they tried to change the definition for political reasons. Now you're trying to change the definition of inflation because you don't want the US to have a strong economy.
If you don't have an initial point of comparison what exactly do you think we're inflating from?
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Knower of economics wrote:
I don’t shop at pricey millennial, hip stores. I pay $3.5 for ground beef. I posted the BLS calculated price averages. They are consistent with 2 years (2021,2022) of 6-7% inflation (~14%).
You cannot convince me with “feelings,” show data.
There's plenty of data out there, you just choose to ignore it:
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joedlrt wrote:
Knower of economics wrote:
I don’t shop at pricey millennial, hip stores. I pay $3.5 for ground beef. I posted the BLS calculated price averages. They are consistent with 2 years (2021,2022) of 6-7% inflation (~14%).
You cannot convince me with “feelings,” show data.
There's plenty of data out there, you just choose to ignore it:
Yes these are the data that are used to calculate the inflation rate. Literally, consistent with my statement that since July total inflation is < 1%.
This is becoming circular.
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TheAdultInTheRoom wrote:
Knower of economics wrote:
I don’t shop at pricey millennial, hip stores. I pay $3.5 for ground beef. I posted the BLS calculated price averages. They are consistent with 2 years (2021,2022) of 6-7% inflation (~14%).
You cannot convince me with “feelings,” show data.
You should re-ask your mom what she pays for ground beef. If you're paying $3.50 per pound it's either 50% fat or it isn't beef.
I’ll take a photo next time I’m at the store for you. Don’t live in expensive cities and don’t shop at expensive stores. Then you can complain.
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TheAdultInTheRoom wrote:
OH...TX wrote:
The actual value of what? Inflation is a function of what you are measuring and what interval your measuring it over. If you change the definition, the resulting values will change.
Republicans hated the decrease in unemployment in 2012, so they tried to change the definition for political reasons. Now you're trying to change the definition of inflation because you don't want the US to have a strong economy.
If you don't have an initial point of comparison what exactly do you think we're inflating from?
What did you mean by "the actual value"? There is not some inherent inflation rate that exists in the wild absent some economists definition.
Are you just waking down the isles of the piggly wiggly, picking random items, and calling that price change the inflation rate? When they have a sale, does that mean the economy is deflating?
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For two years inflation was high. Since July it has been very low.
Unless you disagree with either statement, there’s no need to post literal CPI data! We agree!
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joedlrt wrote:
Knower of economics wrote:
I don’t shop at pricey millennial, hip stores. I pay $3.5 for ground beef. I posted the BLS calculated price averages. They are consistent with 2 years (2021,2022) of 6-7% inflation (~14%).
You cannot convince me with “feelings,” show data.
There's plenty of data out there, you just choose to ignore it:
Some of the highlights:
Food at home increased 19.1% over two years. Fuel oil increased 99.5% over two years. Total energy increased 38.7% over two years. Utility gas increased 48.1% over two years. Electricity increased 21.5% over two years. Car insurance increased 18.8% over two years. Two items decreased last year: gasoline (by a fraction of a percent, due to releases from the SPR, with those no longer in play, prices have started to rise again, which will push all other items up as well, unless Biden relaxes his executive order) and used car prices (due to a combination of interest rate increases and increased demand for EVs).
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Knower of economics wrote:
Newname wrote:
Food inflation is over 10%
This is a meaningless statement. Since when? Can’t get your can of beans for a nickel anymore?
Since July inflation has been at Pre-COVID levels and employment, GDP, and wages have been fine.
Since 2021 XD Fastest inflation rise in 40 years. And inflation has not gone down to pre-covid rates, they've just plateaued.
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joedlrt wrote:
joedlrt wrote:
There's plenty of data out there, you just choose to ignore it:
Some of the highlights:
Food at home increased 19.1% over two years. Fuel oil increased 99.5% over two years. Total energy increased 38.7% over two years. Utility gas increased 48.1% over two years. Electricity increased 21.5% over two years. Car insurance increased 18.8% over two years. Two items decreased last year: gasoline (by a fraction of a percent, due to releases from the SPR, with those no longer in play, prices have started to rise again, which will push all other items up as well, unless Biden relaxes his executive order) and used car prices (due to a combination of interest rate increases and increased demand for EVs).
Thank you for quoting the exact stats that go into calculation of the CPI. Again. I agree with the BLS numbers for 2020, 2021, 2022, etc. they are consistent with the statement that total inflation since July is < 1%.
This isn’t an argument. What’s your point?
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Let it Rupp wrote:
Knower of economics wrote:
This is a meaningless statement. Since when? Can’t get your can of beans for a nickel anymore?
Since July inflation has been at Pre-COVID levels and employment, GDP, and wages have been fine.
Since 2021 XD Fastest inflation rise in 40 years. And inflation has not gone down to pre-covid rates, they've just plateaued.
Go look at the data. The Monthly inflation rate is down to <0.3%. The past 6 months have had an annualized inflation rate of <2% (<1% since July… again). Below average for preCOVID. I don’t get it… the data are right there. It’s simple math.
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Knower of economics wrote:
For two years inflation was high. Since July it has been very low.
Unless you disagree with either statement, there’s no need to post literal CPI data! We agree!
No. your argument was that the Biden economy shows no signs of slowing down, and that couldn't be more untrue. The signs are everywhere right now. The reasons inflation declined the past two quarters is because of the SPR releases and slumping demand. Unfortunately for Biden, there is not an unlimited supply of oil in the SPR to continue to hide his policy lapses. Gasoline has started to come back up, which will drive everything else back up:
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joedlrt wrote:
Knower of economics wrote:
For two years inflation was high. Since July it has been very low.
Unless you disagree with either statement, there’s no need to post literal CPI data! We agree!
No. your argument was that the Biden economy shows no signs of slowing down, and that couldn't be more untrue. The signs are everywhere right now. The reasons inflation declined the past two quarters is because of the SPR releases and slumping demand. Unfortunately for Biden, there is not an unlimited supply of oil in the SPR to continue to hide his policy lapses. Gasoline has started to come back up, which will drive everything else back up:
Yes the original post. Sure.
Since then we’ve been arguing about inflation numbers.
Go on the record. What will be the total inflation rate from Jan-June 2023.
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Good lord people here are dumb.
But I can already see what's gonna happen.
In June/July when the YoY inflation 'magically' drops to 1-2% they are gonna start screaming how the numbers are fake even though the signal (minimal MoM inflation changes) has been there for literally 12 months.
It's like working at a daycare and you run out of scooby doo gummies.
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Knower of economics wrote:
joedlrt wrote:
No. your argument was that the Biden economy shows no signs of slowing down, and that couldn't be more untrue. The signs are everywhere right now. The reasons inflation declined the past two quarters is because of the SPR releases and slumping demand. Unfortunately for Biden, there is not an unlimited supply of oil in the SPR to continue to hide his policy lapses. Gasoline has started to come back up, which will drive everything else back up:
Yes the original post. Sure.
Since then we’ve been arguing about inflation numbers.
Go on the record. What will be the total inflation rate from Jan-June 2023.
It will likely be down as we plunge deeper into recession. We've had some smoke in mirrors the past two quarters. Factory orders with China are way down. I'm too much of a realist to think this is simply a result of us making our own microchips and companies moving their operations out of China due to COVID shutdowns and the looming war with Taiwan.
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517K jobs added in January.
What an amazing recession. Truly devastating the economy.
51
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