Seventh lady might be Nazret Weldu, fourth at Worlds in a NR of 2.20.29. Won Daegu last year in 2.21.56
Next should be Mary Wacera, third here both the last two years. Her first two marathons back in 2019 were both outside 2.27.
PB of 2.20.22 in London last year when 7th.
The depth of the women’s field is monumental. Next may be Angela Tanui. Fourth in Tokyo last year in 2.18.42 then sixth at Worlds. PB of 2.17.57 when winning Amsterdam in 2021.
I am confident I am choosing the top eight men in correct order. Last of those is Albert Korir. Winner in NY in 2021 in 2.08.22. Sixth here last year and seventh in New York but is still yet to cross the line in a sub 2.08
Next may be Herpasa Negasa, PB of 2.03.40 when second in Dubai in 2019. Best since was second in Seoul last year in 2.04.49
Tenth may be Daniel Do Nascimento. You know he is going to be near the lead at some point early. His NR is 2.04.51 when third in Seoul last year. Went on to finish 8th at Worlds. Ran 2.06.11 when ninth in Valencia in 2021.
Next should be Mary Wacera, third here both the last two years. Her first two marathons back in 2019 were both outside 2.27.
PB of 2.20.22 in London last year when 7th.
The depth of the women’s field is monumental. Next may be Angela Tanui. Fourth in Tokyo last year in 2.18.42 then sixth at Worlds. PB of 2.17.57 when winning Amsterdam in 2021.
Tenth could be Ababel Yeshaneh. Second here last year and third in New York in 2021. PB when 2nd in Chicago in 2019 in 2.20.51 a long time behind the WR.
The question that I need to answer in choosing the 11th man is: who could be the second American?
Maybe 11th is too high? 14th or 15th if all the internationals run to their potential?
At 11th I would have to have a man who wins everywhere he goes: Andualem Belay Shiferaw. Won Lisbon on a course not eligible for records in Oct last year in 2.05.45. The previous year won in the same city in 2.05.52.
The depth of the women’s field is monumental. Next may be Angela Tanui. Fourth in Tokyo last year in 2.18.42 then sixth at Worlds. PB of 2.17.57 when winning Amsterdam in 2021.
Tenth could be Ababel Yeshaneh. Second here last year and third in New York in 2021. PB when 2nd in Chicago in 2019 in 2.20.51 a long time behind the WR.
11th lady, first American? Or an Ethiopian who was second in Berlin in 2021?
Tenth could be Ababel Yeshaneh. Second here last year and third in New York in 2021. PB when 2nd in Chicago in 2019 in 2.20.51 a long time behind the WR.
11th lady, first American? Or an Ethiopian who was second in Berlin in 2021?
Taking the second option: Hiwot Gebrekidan. 2.21.23 in Berlin. Won Milan that year in 2.19.35, more than three min in front. PB in Tokyo last year, 2.19.10, finishing fifth.
Maybe 11th is too high? 14th or 15th if all the internationals run to their potential?
At 11th I would have to have a man who wins everywhere he goes: Andualem Belay Shiferaw. Won Lisbon on a course not eligible for records in Oct last year in 2.05.45. The previous year won in the same city in 2.05.52.
Next could be Mark Korir, second in Berlin last year in 2.05.58 between Kipchoge and Tadu Abate. Mark's PB is 9 sec better when winning Paris in 2015.
11th lady, first American? Or an Ethiopian who was second in Berlin in 2021?
Taking the second option: Hiwot Gebrekidan. 2.21.23 in Berlin. Won Milan that year in 2.19.35, more than three min in front. PB in Tokyo last year, 2.19.10, finishing fifth.
12th might be Sara Hall. Almost 40 now, second in London 2020 then third in Chicago the next year. Fifth at Worlds last year. PB of 2.20.32 at the marathon project in 2020.
At 11th I would have to have a man who wins everywhere he goes: Andualem Belay Shiferaw. Won Lisbon on a course not eligible for records in Oct last year in 2.05.45. The previous year won in the same city in 2.05.52.
Next could be Mark Korir, second in Berlin last year in 2.05.58 between Kipchoge and Tadu Abate. Mark's PB is 9 sec better when winning Paris in 2015.
13th should be Nobert Kigen. Has 3 finishes under 2.05.35. PB of 2.05.13 when second in Amsterdam in 2017. Returned there last year and was 7th in 2.05.32. In 2018 was fifth in Valencia in ten sec quicker.
Taking the second option: Hiwot Gebrekidan. 2.21.23 in Berlin. Won Milan that year in 2.19.35, more than three min in front. PB in Tokyo last year, 2.19.10, finishing fifth.
12th might be Sara Hall. Almost 40 now, second in London 2020 then third in Chicago the next year. Fifth at Worlds last year. PB of 2.20.32 at the marathon project in 2020.
Next could be Viola Cheptoo. Last year was 6th here then 5th in NY. PB of 2.22.44 when second in NY on debut the previous year.
14th may be Ghirmay Ghebreslassie, PB last year when third in Seville in 2.05.34. Has won Worlds in 2015 and 4th at the Rio Olympics the next year. Also won NY that year, 2016.
Maybe 11th is too high? 14th or 15th if all the internationals run to their potential?
Second American might be 15th overall. I am going with Ben True. On debut was seventh in NY in 2021 in 2.12.53
Next should be Lelisa Desisa. His best was a decade ago but occasionally can get back to it. PB of 2.04.45 when winning Dubai in 2013. Twice winner here: that year and 2015. Second here 2019 in 2.07.59 and won NY the year before in 2.05.59