Finished 12 week HM training plan - have no idea how to pace race coming next week (Houston). Thoughts?

W1: 8x(2' on(5:30), 1' jog) 2 x 2mile (5:57), 1 mile recovery at 7:30 12 miles (7:30)

W2: 5x(3'on (5:27), 2' jog) 3xmile (5:55), 6x(200 (5:06), 200 jog) LR with 8miles at 6:17

W3: 3x(3' on (5:30), 2'jog), 4x(2' on (5:28), 1' jog) 4x(200 (5:06), 200 jog), 2miles (5:52), 4x(200 (5:06), 200 jog) 13.1 miles at 7:30

W4: 6x(3' on (5:28), 2' jog) 6x(200 (5:00), 200 jog), 3 miles (5:58), 3' jog, 4x(200 (5:00), 200 jog) LR with 10 at 6:17

W5: 10x(2' on (5:28), 1' jog) 8K super hilly race (28:42) LR - 10 at 7:30, 2 at 5:55, 1 easy

W6: 5x(4' on (5:30, 3' jog) 4x(200 (5:00), 200 jog), 3 miles at 5:58, 4x(200 (5:00), 200 jog) 15 miles at 7:37

W7: 2 miles (5:46), 6x(2' on (5:23), 1' jog), 6x(200 (4:56), 200 jog) 6 easy into 3 miles (5:52) no LR - partied and was too hungover

W8: 1 mile (5:53), 8x(2' on (5:23), 1' jog), 4x(200 (4:56), 200 jog) 8 easy into 3 miles (5:53) LR with 11 miles at 6:13

W9: 4x(200 (4:56), 200 jog), 3 miles (5:52), 4x(200 (4:56), 200 jog) 4 x mile (5:50), 1' jog between LR - 5 easy in 7 miles at 6:13

W10: 3 easy into 3 miles (5:48, 5:42, 5:42) 2 x 2 miles (5:47, 5:45) with 2' jog recovery 11 miles at 7:20

W11: 2 x 2 miles (5:50, 5:50), 2' jog recovery 4 easy into 2 miles (5:53)

Your best workout is 3 miles easy followed by 3 miles splitting 5:48, 5:42, 5:42. 11 miles at 6:13 pace is also decent. I would have liked to have seen something like 8 miles at 5:50 flat or a 5 mile in 27:30 to take a crack at 1:15-1:16 .

I recommend going out at 6:00 flat pace for the first four miles and go from there. If you can pick up the pace, do so gradually and bring it home. That should yield you somewhere between a 1:17 to 1:19.

You might have the ability to go 1:15 in the next 6 months. Still, if you go out at 5:40 pace for the first three miles without having recent sub 28 5 mile, sub 35 10k performances you will likely bonk before 10 miles.

Good luck-

Apologize for yet another post. But formatting this so it’s even remotely legible is next to impossible for this guy

W1: 8x(2' on(5:30), 1' jog)

2 x 2mile (5:57), 1 mile recovery at 7:30

12 miles (7:30)

W2: 5x(3'on (5:27), 2' jog)

3xmile (5:55), 6x(200 (5:06), 200 jog)

LR with 8miles at 6:17

W3: 3x(3' on (5:30), 2'jog), 4x(2' on (5:28), 1' jog)

4x(200 (5:06), 200 jog),2miles (5:52), 4x(200 (5:06), 200 jog)

13.1 miles at 7:30

W4: 6x(3' on (5:28), 2' jog)

6x(200 (5:00), 200 jog), 3 miles (5:58), 3' jog, 4x(200 (5:00), 200 jog)

LR with 10 at 6:17

W5: 10x(2' on (5:28), 1' jog)

8K super hilly race (28:42)

LR - 10 at 7:30, 2 at 5:55, 1 easy

W6: 5x(4' on (5:30, 3' jog)

4x(200 (5:00), 200 jog), 3 miles at 5:58, 4x(200 (5:00), 200 jog)

15 miles at 7:37

W7: 2 miles (5:46), 6x(2' on (5:23), 1' jog), 6x(200 (4:56), 200 jog)

6 easy into 3 miles (5:52)

no LR - partied and was too hungover

W8: 1 mile (5:53), 8x(2' on (5:23), 1' jog), 4x(200 (4:56), 200 jog)

8 easy into 3 miles (5:53)

LR with 11 miles at 6:13

W9: 4x(200 (4:56), 200 jog), 3 miles (5:52), 4x(200 (4:56), 200 jog)

4 x mile (5:50), 1' jog between

LR - 5 easy in 7 miles at 6:13

W10: 3 easy into 3 miles (5:48, 5:42, 5:42)

2 x 2 miles (5:47, 5:45) with 2' jog recovery

11 miles at 7:20

W11: 2 x 2 miles (5:50, 5:50), 2' jog recovery 4 easy into 2 miles (5:53)

I truly appreciate your feedback. That sounds like a good plan to me. 6 flat, in theory, should feel super comfortable. Then make a decision for the last 2/3 of the race. Will update.

I agree with both the target and the pacing strategy. Start at 6:00 and then see how you feel. My best long tempo when I went sub-1:18 was at a slower average pace than your 11 miler at 6:13, and I couldn't have done 3 miles at 5:44 in a workout.

Not my day. 1:22:40. Not sure what happened. Was cruising right at 6 flat through 7 and just started to melt down. Had to walk multiple times.

It was warm(er) than I’ve been training but nothing crazy. 56F, 54 dew point. I was in the ER on Thursday with kidney stone pain (I have a history of them) but no pain to speak of during race.

Definitely a letdown as this was the biggest running block I’ve had. Felt super fit and 6 flat should have been easy. Plan was 6s until 10miles and then hammer. On to the next.

It’s ok- solid time, and your fitness can be expressed in the next race. You will benefit from all the training you have done. Definitely better performance coming.

Sometimes disappointing performances are what is needed to improve. Keep at it! It often takes running multiple races of this distance and longer to figure it out.

It’s just super frustrating that I can run 1:20 off of 25-35mpw and then I spend 12 weeks ramping up to 45-55mpw with no payoff.

Nailed workouts, felt great and thought I’d crush a new PB. Body just wasn’t having it. So you’d still recommend keeping up the mileage and chugging along?

Going to the emergency room 3 days before your race is the most obvious reason why your time was off. If you felt that bad, there's going to be an impact on your body.

So take some time to recover, and then plan your next race. If you can't stomach the thought of another HM build, try 10K or a marathon. Or there's no reason not to do some focused mile or 5K training.

You ran 1:22 and you are upset . Really ?

When you were training lower mileage were you also swimming and biking for the tri? If you doubled your running but then cut out all the swimming and biking you maybe be doing less vs more. What may of seemed like an increased In workload may of been the same or less overall.

I’m sure I was biking some, yes. Never put much time into swimming (I was terrible and why I decided to give up on tri). I’ve given this some thought and didn’t think it was consequential because of the non-sport-specific fitness I was gaining. It would obviously be worth something but nothing earth-shattering.

At no point in that dual sport phase could I have gone out and run a 10-12 mile tempo at 6:13s and not died. It was a breeze for me during this block.

Personally I think your threshold workouts could be a little longer. 4 miles is a little low. Maybe 5-6 miles to start eg 5-6xmile, 3x2mile. How has your easy pace changed? How fast are you running your easy runs?

honestly, you basically doubled your mileage for 12 weeks and just had an ER visit. the fatigue probably just finally got to you at the worst time possible. take a couple weeks easy and get back at it. you know you have the fitness so you shouldn't be too upset. not everything is achieved on the first try even if you think it should be.

Thanks, will keep that in mind moving forward. So instead of 3 miles at 5:50 move toward higher volume at a little slower pace? Something like 5 x 6 miles closer to 6:00/mile and play with the recovery as race day approaches?

My easy pace ends up being somewhere between 7:10 and 7:50 depending on the day and how I'm feeling. It has definitely gotten faster.