Bill Meylan/Speed Ratings

I watched both races yesterday. Yes there are some minor cuts that ca be made. May of those corners just have a white line and cones 20 feet apart. How about Shea running down the sidewalk?

Speed rating is just another type of obsession with statistics (no offense to Bill) that Americans seem to love (like in baseball) that, frankly, have little relevance to anything. Tracks have an automatic reference to time (flat and largely consistent, especially these days with artificial surfaces). Cross comparisons are always debatable as even the same course can be set up differently (even if only slightly). Not sure why it is necessary to have these comparisons - except for those anal enough to HAVE to compare to others. I just don't see the point. If you want to compare times/performances - go to the track.

i'll put in the usual disclaimer that some people just don't understand what speed ratings are. they never will. and they are not meant for these people.

At least in distance races, track is actually less comparable than we like to pretend. The Boston indoor track, the increase in 3200 peloton style races (not just Arcadia), a HS kid getting drafted along in a pro race, altitude, wind, heat, difference in expertise or budget with shoe choices, etc. all lead to times that don’t compare well.

There is some humor here as Bill's concept of speed ratings comes from horse races, which are run on tracks. They are used to compare a performance on a cold sloppy track vs a warm hard pack track for betting purposes.

Technically, we could have speed ratings for track times as a 15:15 5k on BU's indoor track might equal a 15:40 5k at Colorado's indoor facility. Similarly, a Gary Martin 4:09 mile on a cold wet windy cinder track might equal a Colin Sahlman 3:59 at Arcadia in perfect weather.

It's human nature to compare performances, and even to wonder "man, what could that kid do on the bu track", or "he'll break 9 for sure in the right race at Arcadia", or "imagine what she'll run if towed by the pros at the Pre meet."

Bill just gives us a tool to make comparisons in xc. (not track lol) He's never claimed it was perfect, and he recommends using multiple ratings over a season, not a single race to compare runners. Turns out his tool is remarkably accurate, and it's given to us for free.

Then explain to me why so many girls end up running over 18 minutes and over 19 minutes at the footlocker finale? If you compare the times you'll notice a lot of girls run their slowest race to the year at foot locker? Why cuz they're happy to be there and they're happy to get some ice cream after the race!

It would be great if we could return the thread to its original sentiment.

the top, top girls might be training to peak for this last race, but the majority probably started peaking 4 or weeks ago for state level competitions, etc.

Yeah that is far more likely than them peaking a month ago for states...

High school cross country is a team sport. The team aspect is what is most important to most people. Speed ratings are a fantastic tool for handicapping the runners in a race to help compare how teams will stack up against one another. I visit the tullyrunners website every day during cross country season. I am very thankful for Bill continuing to do the great work that he does. The couple of people complaining need to leave. You are serving no purpose with your negativity. Bill's speed ratings are a great resource for us and most of us love the site. And it is way more work than what the poster earlier in the thread makes it seem like. Thank you Bill!

I found Bill's speed ratings to be a very good comparison tool, particularly later in the season. His projections meshed pretty well with what I had projected my team running at the end of the year. He correctly predicted where we would finished at NXN based on the speed ratings from the California state meet and the other NXR regional meets. It's never going to be perfect but it's great that Bill puts in the work throughout the XC season to give us these reference points!

The sidewalk is part of the path, so obviously that's totally fine. You saw the cones there, right? So why are you pretending there was something wrong with what Shea did?

There are three reasons why many girls run their slowest time of the year on the Balboa Park course.

1. It's the hardest course many girls run on so it will be their slowest time.

2. They go out way too fast and fade at the end of the race.

3. Balboa is a tricky course that most runners don't know how to run, especially the first timers.