Bill Meylan/Speed Ratings

10000%

I followed Meylan when I was coaching and was pleased to see my teams’ ratings year after year. I retired from coaching several years ago and still follow as a fan. It must take a ton of time to do what he does, but it’s one of the most useful sites we have. Uncannily accurate.

still there are those neanderthals who refuse to recognize Speed Ratings as a legitimate tool to use when comparing races, teams, courses, etc... of course it is not infallible....and yes, Bill Meylan is owed a debt of gratitude..

There are those who choose to focus on the 1% of SRs they think are odd and not the 99% that make perfect sense and prove to be a good forecasting tool.

It's actually not that hard to do if you have all of the data. If you just graph the race and then compare it to older graphs you have, it's not that much time!

I'm not saying it's not cool that he does it and it's a good service but if he gave all his old graphs and data to someone they could definitely keep it going if he wanted to stop

Yeah it would be pretty arduous for someone to do it from scratch because you would have to look up a bunch of old races and graph them out... Or at least do some calculations on average race time and margin of victory and all that!

But I think if you just draw out the median line.. of any race then you can just measure how far anyone's performance is above or below that... And then he probably has a standard for all the different courses that he compares it to!

Please volunteer to take this over. It's only 16-20 hours per week as a volunteer/hobby task.

It's not really my thing. Some people love that stuff...

Again my point was just that to do one or two races if you have all the past data isn't that much time

I'd be curious to know what Parker valley would have got speed rated for her huge 92 second win this year

That's the big problem with speed ratings is that it's very much dependent on the effort of the field

And in a smaller type race you could have one runner go all out and you could have the rest of the field pretty much tank it!

That's probably what happened with the Amber trotter race and that's what happened with Parker valby!

I mean it's a fun website and I like Bill and it's cool to look at... But a lot of people don't understand data and they get all confused with how to interpret it

It's like cyber metrics in baseball...

The Parker Valley PTA race was collegiate, so you'll be waiting a long time for that speed rating lol.

Amber Trotter was indeed the anomaly of all time, but 'tanking it' is implying the field performed poorly on purpose. That's hard to believe at a pre-nxn Foot Locker race.

My opinion as to what happened was:

Trotter ran her best race ever.

Somehow she was completely uneffected by heat and humidity.

The rest of the field was effected quite dramatically by conditions.

So you got the huge gap between winner and a high quality peloton needed to produce an absurd speed rating.

I'm not an Amber Trotter fan, but there definitely was a perfect storm for her on that particular race day.

I believe that she took a shortcut somewhere. I know it sounds ridiculous bt there are several spots where it can happen. Did everyone see the issue at NXN? She technically should have been disqualified even though going off course cost her time. It was on camera and noboy said anything. Imagine doing it on a remote spot at Balboa.

Trotter was from CA. 1/2 the field was from the MW and NE where it was winter. FL was hot and humid that day. Trotter ran fast. Others suffered with the conditions. Most of the S team all ran pretty bad as well.

I wonder if there’s someone he can train as an apprentice so he can pass the torch when he’s done. There’s gotta be others with the passion for it. Maybe aussiestatman?

The valby race is a good example though where one runner goes 100% and the rest of the field doesn't!

By tank I wasn't saying they don't give any effort I'm just saying they don't go all out! They ease up

That's exactly what happened with Amber trotter race!

Guy seriously it's foot locker and it's like a group get together in some respect... where they all hang out before the race... they all hang out after the race

I mean it's not hard to think that most of the field in that race didn't kill themselves and was just looking forward to some ice cream after the race!

I mean Amber trotter runs a 1622 And that gets a 180 speed rating cuz the rest of the field ran slow

Other girls have run way faster than that in high school 16 minutes 1558, 1606, and those all get slower speed ratings cuz the rest of the girls weren't looking forward to ice cream after the race as a group

I mean it's not rocket science that the Amber trotter race was not representative of the reality of how those girls historically compared to the rest of runners

I mean speed ratings are supposed to be worth, 3 seconds each point

So trotter would have ran a 1615 at Balboa Park today on a tougher course, on a much tougher course, then where she ran seven or eight seconds slower

Just like valby would have got a 10 point higher speed rating than tuohy but lost head to head!

I don't know why everyone has to argue against an obvious point and that being that speed ratings only are reflective of how well you run compared to the rest of the field!

And it's not incomprehensible that in a small get together type field like foot locker that one girl could go 100% and the rest of the girls could all run at 85% or whatever

You're a complete idiot. You obviously know nothing about how seriously the girls take the Footlocker / Champs race.

These girls work their butts off for years just for the opportunity to do well at Footlocker. They aren't going to throw that opportunity away for a scoop of ice cream.

That this thread is anything other than a steady stream of emphatic “thank yous” to Bill is indicative of why, when he stops doing it, speed ratings will go the way of the ARRS database post-Ken Young.

It’s time-consuming work for no pay, a truly thankless labor of love.

I'll just repeat this because it's so obviously proves I'm right

So Jenna Hutchins a 1530 5K runner gets a 165 speed rating or whatever

So trotter would have beat her by 45 seconds! Meaning trotter was close to world record 5K shape!

Or certainly a US record I mean what was the US record in 1990 or whatever one trotter ran that rating!

Anyway if you had any brains you would realize that a speed rating just gives your performance relative to the other girls and that at a group performance where everyone is hanging out is a much bigger chance that people will just ease up a little because they're enjoying the full festivities!

Interesting. And I think your facts are all true. I didn't compare to Cook but I am guessing similar analysis. Cook ran 15:25 on the track so I guess Trotter would have been well under 15.

1134 mark is a Great clip of the rest of the field who doesn't look that impressive and doesn't look like they're running that hard

And trotter only one by like 40 seconds which is the same as tuohy at nxn but somehow she got a much higher speed rating!

Makes no sense! so trotter was 45 seconds faster than cook a 1525 5k runner... 1440? Yeah right!

Yeah I appreciate that and it's funny I didn't even see your post but I also thought of cook who I think was also rated no higher than high 160s

Anyway Bill is a great guy and he does his thing and he keeps a great record and has tons of data but honestly it's just his version of how he interprets the data

I mean look at Irene Riggs she just ran an incredible 16 minutes and beat the competition by 80 seconds and only got rated a 171

And I just double checked and cooks highest rating ever was 165

Tuohy 178

I'm sorry trotter was No way 45 seconds faster than cook! She ran 1622 on an easy course winning by 40 seconds and gets a 180 and Irene Riggs runs 16 minutes on a similar type course wins by 80 seconds but gets a 171