Smart move by him to be self coached. Considering his last two (Nike) coaches have been directly linked to doping, he probably doesn't trust that Nike will send him to one who runs a clean group.
On the 5,000 front, yes Fisher is good but Woody may be in decline and then you're onto Abdi Nur and Cooper Teare (who might run the 5,000) who are good, but to me beatable. I guess this might be beside the point, but globally the 1500 is the tougher ask for Centro at this juncture — I'd find it way more likely he can run tactically great at 5,000 and have a big kick like Oscar Chelimo or Grijalva (sp?) after just one tactical round of racing. It'd be surprising if he can make it through 2 fast rounds and be competitive and running 3:28-3:31 in any 1500 final on the global stage.
Kincaid is 3 years younger than Centro and really hasn’t shown much evidence of a decline. 13:05i/13:06 with a huge kick in ‘22, and would have likely made the WC final if he hadn’t fallen in the heats. Last we saw of him he was kicking to win a 7:38 3k against a solid field in Zagreb.
Nur could well be running low 12:50s come 2024. After running a 13:06 collegiate record and getting a WC final auto-qualifier, if he gets any significant boost from joining a pro group he could be a lock for U.S. 5k/10k teams before you know it. He’ll be 26 in ‘24 vs. 34 year old Centro.
Paul Chelimo had a terrible year (his best result was a 7:42 3k), but it was still better than Centro’s surgery year, he’s younger than Centro, and it was still very recently that he netted Olympic bronze in a sub-13 race.
Joe Klecker ran 13:04 twice this year and is evidently still improving. He’ll be 27 in 2024 and could decide to double.
A handful of collegians appear primed to break into the pro ranks based on recent 5ks. Nico Young 13:11, Alex Maier 13:11, Drew Bosley 13:13, Dylan Jacobs 13:14. At least one of these guys could be running sub-13 come summer of ‘24. Eduardo Herrera is a little older, but seeing as he just ran 13:11 to beat 3 of those guys I’d feel guilty not mentioning him. A guy like Morgan Beadlescomb (3:52.0/7:43/13:17) could factor if he responds well to a pro training scenario.
I haven’t even mentioned Fisher, Teare, McGorty, or Bor. But in short, making the U.S. Olympic 5k team isn’t as simple as you make it out to be.
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If he did somehow make it to the Olympic 5k final, I can’t imagine he’d factor. I doubt that the best from East Africa will be content to wait around to get torched in the final K after what Jakob did to them in Eugene. More likely it will be a fairly fast race with surges, and if Centro held on until 400 to go (and this absolutely will not happen) he would be absolutely knackered compared with the real medal contenders—the guys capable of running ~20 seconds faster than him over 5k.
I don’t think Centro will make the 1500 team either, but it’s his best bet and who knows, maybe he can finish 9th in an another Olympic semifinal if everything goes well for him between now and then. I sincerely wish him the best.
Smart move by him to be self coached. Considering his last two (Nike) coaches have been directly linked to doping, he probably doesn't trust that Nike will send him to one who runs a clean group.
Well, that implies that Centro is opposed to doping, though he stayed with NOP for years, and then moved to BTC...
I’m surprised a little bit he’s so focused on the 1,500. He’s shown promise at the 5,000, and I’d tend to think the 1,500 would be more of a young man’s game. I do understand the US is stronger at 5,000, so maybe that factors. We haven’t really seen him in a tactical 5,000, so can’t say I know how he’d do relative what will likely be 1500 finals on the slower side.
The truth is Matthew is finished as an Olympian or World Chamionship competitor. The man has had a stellar career but he cannot make the team at either event anymore. He will be almost 35 when the 2024 Olympics are held and it will be over for him.
Kincaid is 3 years younger than Centro and really hasn’t shown much evidence of a decline. 13:05i/13:06 with a huge kick in ‘22, and would have likely made the WC final if he hadn’t fallen in the heats. Last we saw of him he was kicking to win a 7:38 3k against a solid field in Zagreb.
Nur could well be running low 12:50s come 2024. After running a 13:06 collegiate record and getting a WC final auto-qualifier, if he gets any significant boost from joining a pro group he could be a lock for U.S. 5k/10k teams before you know it. He’ll be 26 in ‘24 vs. 34 year old Centro.
Paul Chelimo had a terrible year (his best result was a 7:42 3k), but it was still better than Centro’s surgery year, he’s younger than Centro, and it was still very recently that he netted Olympic bronze in a sub-13 race.
Joe Klecker ran 13:04 twice this year and is evidently still improving. He’ll be 27 in 2024 and could decide to double.
A handful of collegians appear primed to break into the pro ranks based on recent 5ks. Nico Young 13:11, Alex Maier 13:11, Drew Bosley 13:13, Dylan Jacobs 13:14. At least one of these guys could be running sub-13 come summer of ‘24. Eduardo Herrera is a little older, but seeing as he just ran 13:11 to beat 3 of those guys I’d feel guilty not mentioning him. A guy like Morgan Beadlescomb (3:52.0/7:43/13:17) could factor if he responds well to a pro training scenario.
I haven’t even mentioned Fisher, Teare, McGorty, or Bor. But in short, making the U.S. Olympic 5k team isn’t as simple as you make it out to be.
…
If he did somehow make it to the Olympic 5k final, I can’t imagine he’d factor. I doubt that the best from East Africa will be content to wait around to get torched in the final K after what Jakob did to them in Eugene. More likely it will be a fairly fast race with surges, and if Centro held on until 400 to go (and this absolutely will not happen) he would be absolutely knackered compared with the real medal contenders—the guys capable of running ~20 seconds faster than him over 5k.
I don’t think Centro will make the 1500 team either, but it’s his best bet and who knows, maybe he can finish 9th in an another Olympic semifinal if everything goes well for him between now and then. I sincerely wish him the best.
I think there is potential for depth in the 5,000 in the US scene no doubt. The NCAA guys are solid, but while the standard has been raised, it's still a long way from 13:11 in a perfect time trial to being a real contender. Klecker/Nur you are right to point out would likely be in the driver's seat to beat Centro. Maybe I'm calling it too early, but I think Chelimo's days are pretty much done. Centro did run his 13-flat without it being a true focus of his. I'd like to see him give it more of a shot, I guess is where I'm at. I tend to think that Centro's 2023/4 is gonna similarly to how Jenny Simpson's 2021 went. It is just exceedingly difficult to run at the highest level in the 1500 once you get to a certain age. Centro has had a ton of injuries as well. What you foresee for the Worlds 5,000 is certainly possible, and it is closer to what the Kenyans tried to do at the Commonwealth Games vs. Jacob Kiplimo. It didn't work however, and making the championship final 5000 faster just rarely does for the athlete doing it. If Centro can run 3:31 or 3:32 the next couple years, then he's making the right choice. I'm skeptical and think he will be a 3:33-34 guy which to me means he should be putting his energy in the 5,000 where tactical savvy will remain a big asset and speed will be a strength not liability.
Centro's been off since he won gold in 2016, with a few very bright moments since then, the 13 flat time trial and the Centro mile, in which he ran 3:49, I think, but knew that he was in shape for better and had poor pacing. So, it doesn't seem like he'll be coming back to his old self, but that would be fun to see, especially at a newer event for him, the 5000m, which his dad excelled at.
Kincaid is 3 years younger than Centro and really hasn’t shown much evidence of a decline. 13:05i/13:06 with a huge kick in ‘22, and would have likely made the WC final if he hadn’t fallen in the heats. Last we saw of him he was kicking to win a 7:38 3k against a solid field in Zagreb.
Nur could well be running low 12:50s come 2024. After running a 13:06 collegiate record and getting a WC final auto-qualifier, if he gets any significant boost from joining a pro group he could be a lock for U.S. 5k/10k teams before you know it. He’ll be 26 in ‘24 vs. 34 year old Centro.
Paul Chelimo had a terrible year (his best result was a 7:42 3k), but it was still better than Centro’s surgery year, he’s younger than Centro, and it was still very recently that he netted Olympic bronze in a sub-13 race.
Joe Klecker ran 13:04 twice this year and is evidently still improving. He’ll be 27 in 2024 and could decide to double.
A handful of collegians appear primed to break into the pro ranks based on recent 5ks. Nico Young 13:11, Alex Maier 13:11, Drew Bosley 13:13, Dylan Jacobs 13:14. At least one of these guys could be running sub-13 come summer of ‘24. Eduardo Herrera is a little older, but seeing as he just ran 13:11 to beat 3 of those guys I’d feel guilty not mentioning him. A guy like Morgan Beadlescomb (3:52.0/7:43/13:17) could factor if he responds well to a pro training scenario.
I haven’t even mentioned Fisher, Teare, McGorty, or Bor. But in short, making the U.S. Olympic 5k team isn’t as simple as you make it out to be.
…
If he did somehow make it to the Olympic 5k final, I can’t imagine he’d factor. I doubt that the best from East Africa will be content to wait around to get torched in the final K after what Jakob did to them in Eugene. More likely it will be a fairly fast race with surges, and if Centro held on until 400 to go (and this absolutely will not happen) he would be absolutely knackered compared with the real medal contenders—the guys capable of running ~20 seconds faster than him over 5k.
I don’t think Centro will make the 1500 team either, but it’s his best bet and who knows, maybe he can finish 9th in an another Olympic semifinal if everything goes well for him between now and then. I sincerely wish him the best.
I think there is potential for depth in the 5,000 in the US scene no doubt. The NCAA guys are solid, but while the standard has been raised, it's still a long way from 13:11 in a perfect time trial to being a real contender. Klecker/Nur you are right to point out would likely be in the driver's seat to beat Centro. Maybe I'm calling it too early, but I think Chelimo's days are pretty much done. Centro did run his 13-flat without it being a true focus of his. I'd like to see him give it more of a shot, I guess is where I'm at. I tend to think that Centro's 2023/4 is gonna similarly to how Jenny Simpson's 2021 went. It is just exceedingly difficult to run at the highest level in the 1500 once you get to a certain age. Centro has had a ton of injuries as well. What you foresee for the Worlds 5,000 is certainly possible, and it is closer to what the Kenyans tried to do at the Commonwealth Games vs. Jacob Kiplimo. It didn't work however, and making the championship final 5000 faster just rarely does for the athlete doing it. If Centro can run 3:31 or 3:32 the next couple years, then he's making the right choice. I'm skeptical and think he will be a 3:33-34 guy which to me means he should be putting his energy in the 5,000 where tactical savvy will remain a big asset and speed will be a strength not liability.
That’s interesting. I would have argued the opposite. I would think Matt’s tactical savvy and positioning are more likely to come in to play in the 1500 than the 5000. Anyway, it seems like the days of the slow tactical race are on the wane wold-wide and in the USA at both distances. Certainly in the 5000, Fisher has learned his lesson and will never allow himself to be Kleckered again at the 5 or 10.
He made the Olympic team for the 1500 as recently as last year. It's not evident that he needs to move up yet. He has always been consistent (rarely a bad race).
He made the Olympic team for the 1500 as recently as last year. It's not evident that he needs to move up yet. He has always been consistent (rarely a bad race).
This. Also, the 5k is way deeper and stronger than the 1500. Staying in 1500 would be the smart move.
I'm still looking forwards to what he can do. Nick Willis was running fast enough to get to the Olympics at like age 37, and I think they're pretty comparable since they're both Olympic Champs…
Nick Willis is NOT an “Olympic Champ”. He is a talented and successful runner, having won both an Olympic silver medal a bronze, but he has never won an Olympic gold.
I'm still looking forwards to what he can do. Nick Willis was running fast enough to get to the Olympics at like age 37, and I think they're pretty comparable since they're both Olympic Champs…
Nick Willis is NOT an “Olympic Champ”. He is a talented and successful runner, having won both an Olympic silver medal a bronze, but he has never won an Olympic gold.
Considering he got beat by a convicted doper, I'll give him the honorary title of Olympic champ
After Tokyo it should be pretty clear that he has no future on the world stage at 1500m. Sure he could probably make another team but to what end? Not even making the finals again? Surely that cant be seen as an accomplishment for someone with his pedigree.
Centro winning Olympic gold in 3:50 literally changed the race so that nobody let it get that tactical anymore. All the global finals and many DL races at 1500m will probably be won in 3:30 or lower with the pace pushing athletes in those races now.
It depends on what Centro wants- does he want to compete to be US champ a couple more times, but probably not be a factor at the Olympics/worlds? Choose the 1500m. Does he want to compete for a U.S. team that is harder to make and he probably won't be a U.S. champ, but maybe he has a better chance at making the world final and placing higher? Choose the 5k.
Also the person posting about Willis winning Olympic gold knows that he got silver- they are just implying that they think he deserves gold since Kiprop was in front of him and Kiprop has since been busted.