Will Aaron Sahlman get the 800 and mile records this year?

No to 800, 1500, Mile. Maybe the 1600 or 3000.

Awe I've made this same critique before lol

I agree with pretty much everything you said, but I don't think a ton of hype around an athlete is inherently detrimental to them. I think the issue comes when the athlete doesn't perform up to expectation and then it feels like all the support they've been getting from fans turns into hate, ie how Hocker was insanely hyped in 2021 while he was having a great season, then in 2022 when he had his first bad race everyone turned to trashing him. Not good at all. It's worse when someone like Drew Hunter finally runs 3:34 after years of struggling and people say it's not that good anymore.

I think as fans, the better way to act is to hype up athletes who are performing well, and to give support to those who aren't, and I think I always act in accordance with that. I've pretty much always defended TME, even when they weren't performing well. I've supported Morgan McDonald through his injury issues, Hoare through his disappointing Worlds performance, Tuohy during her injury year, and plenty more. If you look through my post history I don't think you'll find a single instance of me hating on an athlete. I voice disappointment, but generally it's like "Dang, I was really hoping X would run faster today. I hope they get through their injury issues" as opposed to "This mf is finished they need to hang up the spikes".

I agree that we shouldn't place unrealistic expectations onto athletes, but we may disagree on what realistic means. Like I think 3:53 is realistic in the sense that I think he could do it, but not in the sense that he's likely to. By virtue of being a record (20+ years old at that) it's unlikely that any athlete will break it. That's why in my post I said if he got in the right race he would. It's also why I didn't say Kessler's 1500 record, because I don't think anyone's gonna be able to get that one soon. I also think that athlete's parents and coaches have more of an obligation than I do to be more realistic because their input has a far greater impact than mine.

The pros are right in that the kids should absolutely have balanced lives outside of running, but I don't think them being hyped up changes their ability to do that. I think that having a balanced life outside of running means that even if you are hyped up, you won't tie your self worth to your PRs. Top HS athletes are in some ways in a better position to figure out that balance than collegians and pros, because at those levels you have to perform well or you lose your scholarship/sponsorship.

That’s not what Michael Granville thinks. for the 800 record, that is

You don't know what you're talking about.

Tracks and shoes are faster than ever. More high school boys are running sub 4 per year than ever before. Hobbs Kessler already ran a 1500 that was the equivalent of sub 3:53.

Aaron Sahlman might not break Webb's mile record, but it's just a matter of time for an American born boy to break that record. No need to import boys from East Africa.

Yeah and what is that nonsense about needing to be top-10 in the world to break the record? 3:53.43/1.08 = 3:36.14 for 1500. 71 men ran faster than that outdoors in 2022.

I agree that A. Sahlman has a better chance of breaking the 3k or 2mi. records (7:56.97/8:29.46) than those at 800/mile. They are not as strong, and he obviously has the prerequisite speed and elite endurance through at least 5k XC.

Bruh....Aaron Sahlman is a legend but he isn't running 1:45 / 3:52 this year...

Granville like 1:51 as a freshman and just under 1:48 as a junior. He did run some really fast 400s(want to say like 46.5).

If you go back we have had a bunch of juniors who have run 1:48.5 800ms over the last 25 years. My impression is that few of those guys run faster senior year. I think it is hard for most of them to get in 1:46.x races.

But in the end guessing who keeps improving and who stagnated is impossible. I have no clue if he has legit sub 49 speed to have a future in the 800m. But spending a season trying to be a fast 800 guy isn't going to ruin his future if he is really a 1500/5000m(his 3k PR is solid) in a couple years...

The Young twins' lower bodies seem to have filled out already. They'll probably plateau sooner than most expect. On the other hand, the Sahlmans look anything but physically mature. Should see more dramatic improvement from both of them as their careers progress.

Statgangsta (probably the most accurate calculator of the 800 I’ve found, as long as you have a solid 400 and mile PR around the same time you run the 800) put his 800 at 1:46.5 if he runs 3:54 and 48.5, which seems doable at least.

Lol. Why would you import from somewhere with slower milers? All the fast milers are from Europe & Australia. Would it be too expensive to import?

Buddy, you can super-train all the mid-talent guys you want and I bet my mothers life you won’t come close to a specimen like Aaron Sahlman.

People said the same thing about Nico and now he’s competing at the top of the deepest NCAA distance field in history.

The contrast in writing styles in your two paragraphs is rather remarkable. A steady train that quickly went off the rails and off the deep end.

Granville ran 47.x as a freshman (In the same race as Calvin Harrison's 45.25) and 46.15 as a senior (alongside a 21.0 200, apparently he was thinking about doubling in the 200 and 800 at states that year, but they f*cked up the timing at masters, which meant he would have had to run a solo time trial that weekend. He said nope, and went to states to just do the 800).

Agreed. The 800 also seems like an event where people can show flashes of brilliance that they never show again in their high school careers. I remember there was that freshman than split 1:47.99 FAT on a 4x800 at NBON a few years back - never ended up getting anywhere close for the rest of high school.

I think last year the reason we saw two guys running under 1:47 was because they were just able to get into fast races. Flatt and sumner had racing opportunities, training, and technology some of the guys in the 80s and 90s would have only dreamed of.

I think he has good speed (I could see him going sub 49 this year) but he doesn't strike me as the type to have the kind of speed you need to be elite in the 800.

I just want to add that I'm surprised Alan Webb never went for the 800 record in high school. He definitely should have been able to get it - Guy was running 3:53 and 47 high, and he split 1:47.1 that year at nationals.

another often forgotten runner is Andres Arroyo (Colonial HS in Florida, 2013 graduate). never had a focus on the 800 m as he only ran 3 total 800 m races his senior year (often focusing on other events at the meet). his first 800 m of the season was 1:47.79, winning by 4 seconds, and he never ran another hard 800 that year.

I think this is a perspective a lot of people don't have unless they've seen it (or experienced it) first-hand. Being a great 800 runner (for whatever level you're at) comes down more to being able to run close to your PR a high number of times in a season. The sport requires prelims/semis/finals a few times a year and I knew plenty of guys coming into college with a one-time 1:52 or 1:53, or even who randomly split 1:51 in a 4x800 who would struggle to run under 1:55 or 1:56 for years after. Hell, I was in high school with a runner who split 1:52 as a high school freshman and 1:51 open as a soph and never PRed again. It's a weird event and I've never fully grasped what it is about the event that allows someone to pop a fast time and struggle to ever touch it again.

Similarly, you'll often see runners underperform their relative 400/1500 ability. There are plenty of runners out there with excess foot speed and mile endurance that can't run an equivalent 800. It's a different animal. I'd love to hear other's perspective on what causes this.

This was me. I was running far worse times than you were but I had this problem. My 800 was far slower than it should have been for the times I was running in the 1600 and 400 and I could never figure out why.

+1. I've seen this happen with friends, with kids i've coached, and with the opponents of kids i've coached. The 800 is such a strange event.

Great post and insight.

“I wonder if he's just not motivated a lot of the time.”

Dumbest thing I’ve heard this week.

He's got a better shot at the mile record and he won't break the mile record.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Birnbaum run sub 3:55 in the Spring.