I agree- American Fork has to be the leading team to return. NP is cooked. From the midwest, I see only Downers North coming back; Plainfield and Hinsdale lose too many runners, though Hinsdale has state champion Aden Bandekwala back, and he was 8th in team scoring this year. Plus Hinsdale has good coaching.
Looks like Plainfield South does seem to have a good top 5 for next year kinda: -The big 3 that all ran at NXN (Maloney-4:24i, Viger-4:24i, Borger-4:27i). All 3 went under 9:27 at Hoka. -Fink-9:59 3200 / 16:23 3-mile -DeAlba-4:40 1600 / 16:30 3-mile
Hinsdale Central also returns 3 varsity guys: Bandukwala / Lowe / Kamenev And they also have 2 solid youngsters that could step up and help out next year. Revord - 10 - 4:38 Younger Gamboa - 9 - 4:43
But still, these two teams got long ways to go to return to NXN.
Just gonna say it. Watch out for Farragut TN next year. Yes losing 4 guys including Coggin will be tough but they do return their #2-4 guys (juniors Tonnos, Ebbert, and Cunningham), and also a 16:28 / 4:31 guy Beeler who is a sophomore now. Now, if they can find a fifth guy, they could challenge for an NXN spot, and maybe get 3rd at NXR and get an at-large bid to NXN
Vestavia Hills AL will be a team to watch. According to the attached thread, they ran a 7:38 in the 4x800. They also beat Huntsville for the xc state championship in the tiebreaker without Strand who is returning next year. They only lose 2 seniors.
If they all continue to have season over season drops, and they find a 6th to add some depth, Boise is quite competitive. Also it's important to note that Boise is very good at racing high level races like the State meet and NXR.
Coeur D'Alene - 4:18/9:13, 4:22, 4:23, 4:30, 4:46
If CDA's 5th man can continue to improve, and the rest of them continue to be solid (and improve a bit), CDA is looking at an NXN berth. (as has been mentioned on here before)
Rocky Mountain - I wasn't going to include Rocky in here until about a week ago when they suddenly had a huge jump in depth. Here are the mile times they return:
With stupid depth that rivals the old CBA and Greak Oak teams, I don't think anyone can count them out. With a low stick in Heemeyer followed by a mob of guys in the 4:40's, I think that if some of these guys figure out how to make their XC times look like their track times, it's not hard to imagine Rocky being just as good as they were this year
If they all continue to have season over season drops, and they find a 6th to add some depth, Boise is quite competitive. Also it's important to note that Boise is very good at racing high level races like the State meet and NXR.
Coeur D'Alene - 4:18/9:13, 4:22, 4:23, 4:30, 4:46
If CDA's 5th man can continue to improve, and the rest of them continue to be solid (and improve a bit), CDA is looking at an NXN berth. (as has been mentioned on here before)
Rocky Mountain - I wasn't going to include Rocky in here until about a week ago when they suddenly had a huge jump in depth. Here are the mile times they return:
With stupid depth that rivals the old CBA and Greak Oak teams, I don't think anyone can count them out. With a low stick in Heemeyer followed by a mob of guys in the 4:40's, I think that if some of these guys figure out how to make their XC times look like their track times, it's not hard to imagine Rocky being just as good as they were this year
That district is actually looking really deep.
Timberline is returning 4:29/9:39 (So), 4:44/10:08 (Jr), 4:36 (Jr), 4:37 (So), 4:41 (So), 4:47 (So), 4:48 (Fr). A bunch of those guys made monster jumps this season and if they do even moderate jumps over the summer, they will be really good.
Mountain View has historically reloaded time and time again. Tracy Harris gets big numbers out and they are usually better at cross than they are track.
Centennial is returning a guy that was 6th at the State Meet that has run 1:55 and 4:16, a 9:54 freshman, 4:35/10:07, 1:59/4:37, 4:47/10:16 (Fr), and 4:38/10:17. It looks like they are going to pretty much run back their state team with the exception of one guy.
Eagle needs to find a 5th, but they return 9:13, a 9:59 freshman, 1:57/10:21, and a 10:18 sophomore. Current next best guy is a 10:37 guy that ran 18:09 in cross so he's a lot better than he was last fall but he needs to make another considerable jump for them to be competitive. It doesn't look like they race the 1600 very much so hard to tell what those times are.
It looks like a lot of these teams made big jumps from cross to track with improvement in times. Lots of young guys on these teams so just growing up they should see pretty big improvements.
How many qualify out of that district to state? It used to be top half of the district were auto qualifiers. Not sure if it's the same.
As a side note, why is Eagle's team so small? Isn't it 2000+ kids? Having 19 boys and 22 girls isn't great for a school that size. That makes it pretty hard to have any sort of depth.
Teams that finish in the top one-half, or major portion thereof, of the full teams that complete the district meet shall qualify for the state meet.
Qualifying as an Individual: Runners whose team does not qualify, may qualify as individuals by finishing in the top one-third of the total number of competitors that complete the district meet. A maximum of seven runners per school shall be counted in determining the total number of competitors.
How many qualify out of that district to state? It used to be top half of the district were auto qualifiers. Not sure if it's the same.
I believe its the top 7 teams. Last year, Owyhee got 8th and didn't go to state, while Eagle got 7th and did go.
I think it's the top half rounded up then. There's 13 teams in that district. It looks like there's one spot that really is going to be up for grabs out of the remaining 7 teams. Capital loses 4 of their top 8, Owyhee loses 5 guys in the 4:40's or faster, but returns 4:26/9:52, 4:44, 4:47 (Fr), and 4:48. Their next guy runs 4:59. Borah looks to have nothing, Middleton has one guy of note, Kuna isn't deep, Meridian has Statdlander and then two freshmen at 4:49 and 4:50, but then nothing, and Nampa loses 3 of their 8 guys that have run a mile this year.
Unless a team gets a couple of talented freshmen, looks like it's going to likely be Rocky, Boise, Centennial, Timberline, Mountain View, Eagle, and Owyhee. That's the order I'm picking for it as well. I'm guessing state will be CDA, Rocky, Boise, Centennial in that order.
If CDA's 5th man can continue to improve, and the rest of them continue to be solid (and improve a bit), CDA is looking at an NXN berth. (as has been mentioned on here before)
CDA also has a freshman coming in (Wyatt Carr) who ran a 9:15 3k during indoor season.
If they all continue to have season over season drops, and they find a 6th to add some depth, Boise is quite competitive. Also it's important to note that Boise is very good at racing high level races like the State meet and NXR.
Another thing that’s important for Boise, is that, if they can’t develop a solid 6th and 7th over the summer, all of their top 5 need to be on during state and NXR.
As a side note, why is Eagle's team so small? Isn't it 2000+ kids? Having 19 boys and 22 girls isn't great for a school that size. That makes it pretty hard to have any sort of depth.
I’m guessing more guys will join the team if they continue being successful?
I think Boise gets Allie Bruce's 8th grade brother next year, that could provide a bit of depth to help. CDA looks to be one of the favorites to win NXN next year, unreal starting 5 they will have.