-Subpar performance at NXN, so not expected to perform well next year compared to other teams who have many returnees (who finished far better)
-They graduate Logan (who was consistently either #1 or #2 this year with Jude)
Another thing that may keep them from winning state is the lack of a front runner. In fact we don’t know who it will be. Probably Alvarez or Leonard, but there are some JV guys that could be it too (like current juniors Vande Berghe or Golomb who had an awesome track season)
1. American Fork UT (looking for their first NXN title after placing 5th, only losing their #4, and returning Simmons) 2. Herriman UT (placed 4th in their first NXN outing, and returns 3 guys from NXN, 2 guys from the state meet, and lots of depth beyond that) 3. Crater OR (losing Gorze but they return their 2-6, so they should move up and make the podium) 4. Belen Jesuit Prep FL (Ruiz brothers did not run their best at NXN and they only lose their 4th from NXN. Lots of depth on JV as well) 5. Wayzata MN (returns everyone but their 5th man from NXN. But they will need their 1/2 guys to step up)
6. Stevens Point WI (returning their 1-5 after placing 15th at NXN. Lots of young talent in positions 3-5 and on JV as well) 7. McCallie TN (looking to redeem themselves by autoqualifying and being able to place high after barely missing out NXN and not getting an at-large. They only lose 2 seniors. They also return lots of depth) 8. Downers Grove North IL (keeps most of their guys so they are looking to qualify again and finish higher than they did this year) 9. Ventura CA (with Newbury Park and Great Oak losing 5 seniors and having lost their stud coaches, this team is looking to take over CA next year. They return 5 varsity juniors and a stud freshman who should step up. 7th spot is up for grabs) 10. Niwot CO (SW at-large) (returns 3 of their top 5 from NXR (including a Culpepper), and another 16:11 guy. Lots of young guys that can be their good fifth runner)
11. Carmel IN (another year to redeem themselves after not making NXN and returning 5 guys from NXR) 12. Trabuco Hills CA (returns their 1-4. If they find a better 5th, they could finish even higher than this) 13. San Clemente CA (CA At Large) (qualified last year, placed 6th here, and returns most of their squad. But they are losing their 1-2 punch and their 6th though. They can finish higher if their freshman Harrington steps up and they find a 5th. There are many guys on JV that can pull that off) 14. Noblesville IN (MW at-large) (spent some time in the national rankings, and brings 5 of their top 6 back) 15. Calvert Hall College MD (SE at large) (much improved program from last year after losing many seniors. Returns 5 of their top 7. Placed 4th at NXR)
16. Coeur D’Alene ID (will finish maybe higher than this if they find a better fifth man. They are graduating nobody. Looking to be the first ID boys team to go to NXN) 17. Southlake Carroll TX (returns 4 of their top 5 from NXN, and should be able to win the South region again. They also return 3 studs on JV which should give this team a solid top 7. But they finished 20th at NXN and it’s hard to expect them to finish way higher because of many other talented teams) 18. CBA NJ (losing Sullivan and a 2 other seniors. Looking to be lead by Barrett this time. They also have some good freshmen and sophs on JV that can step up. They had a subpar performance at NXN so we cannot expect them to do a whole lot better especially after losing some quality seniors and seeing many quality teams here. They also seem to go out too fast at NXN sometimes. 19. Grapevine TX (returns 6 guys, but they are losing an important #2) 20. Union Catholic NJ (should get back up here with Wischusen back, and finish higher than this if they get more transfers)
21. St Anthony’s NY (returns 3 scorers, another guy that spent time on varsity, and some more young talent. Should be able to move up to being the #1 team in NY after Corning graduating so many guys) 22. Fairport NY (returning most of their varsity squad and depth, but won’t do much damage at NXN)
I made at-large predictions so that I could include the predictions for all 22 teams. I’m not going to predict 2 at-larges for the Southwest region right now (or any region from that matter). It’s hard to make a case for 2 at larges if top Utah and top CO teams don’t face each other until NXR. But if the top 4 teams are from Utah, I would not be surprised if there is an at-large, since obviously all of the top UT teams face each other many times, and with American Fork and Herriman being the 2 favorites, there are many others that can get third. I think CA teams had 2 at-larges because Newbury Park was dominant and other top ca teams got to face each other many times and results kept changing.
1. American Fork UT (looking for their first NXN title after placing 5th, only losing their #4, and returning Simmons) 2. Herriman UT (placed 4th in their first NXN outing, and returns 3 guys from NXN, 2 guys from the state meet, and lots of depth beyond that) 3. Crater OR (losing Gorze but they return their 2-6, so they should move up and make the podium) 4. Belen Jesuit Prep FL (Ruiz brothers did not run their best at NXN and they only lose their 4th from NXN. Lots of depth on JV as well) 5. Wayzata MN (returns everyone but their 5th man from NXN. But they will need their 1/2 guys to step up)
6. Stevens Point WI (returning their 1-5 after placing 15th at NXN. Lots of young talent in positions 3-5 and on JV as well) 7. McCallie TN (looking to redeem themselves by autoqualifying and being able to place high after barely missing out NXN and not getting an at-large. They only lose 2 seniors. They also return lots of depth) 8. Downers Grove North IL (keeps most of their guys so they are looking to qualify again and finish higher than they did this year) 9. Ventura CA (with Newbury Park and Great Oak losing 5 seniors and having lost their stud coaches, this team is looking to take over CA next year. They return 5 varsity juniors and a stud freshman who should step up. 7th spot is up for grabs) 10. Niwot CO (SW at-large) (returns 3 of their top 5 from NXR (including a Culpepper), and another 16:11 guy. Lots of young guys that can be their good fifth runner)
11. Carmel IN (another year to redeem themselves after not making NXN and returning 5 guys from NXR) 12. Trabuco Hills CA (returns their 1-4. If they find a better 5th, they could finish even higher than this) 13. San Clemente CA (CA At Large) (qualified last year, placed 6th here, and returns most of their squad. But they are losing their 1-2 punch and their 6th though. They can finish higher if their freshman Harrington steps up and they find a 5th. There are many guys on JV that can pull that off) 14. Noblesville IN (MW at-large) (spent some time in the national rankings, and brings 5 of their top 6 back) 15. Calvert Hall College MD (SE at large) (much improved program from last year after losing many seniors. Returns 5 of their top 7. Placed 4th at NXR)
16. Coeur D’Alene ID (will finish maybe higher than this if they find a better fifth man. They are graduating nobody. Looking to be the first ID boys team to go to NXN) 17. Southlake Carroll TX (returns 4 of their top 5 from NXN, and should be able to win the South region again. They also return 3 studs on JV which should give this team a solid top 7. But they finished 20th at NXN and it’s hard to expect them to finish way higher because of many other talented teams) 18. CBA NJ (losing Sullivan and a 2 other seniors. Looking to be lead by Barrett this time. They also have some good freshmen and sophs on JV that can step up. They had a subpar performance at NXN so we cannot expect them to do a whole lot better especially after losing some quality seniors and seeing many quality teams here. They also seem to go out too fast at NXN sometimes. 19. Grapevine TX (returns 6 guys, but they are losing an important #2) 20. Union Catholic NJ (should get back up here with Wischusen back, and finish higher than this if they get more transfers)
21. St Anthony’s NY (returns 3 scorers, another guy that spent time on varsity, and some more young talent. Should be able to move up to being the #1 team in NY after Corning graduating so many guys) 22. Fairport NY (returning most of their varsity squad and depth, but won’t do much damage at NXN)
I made at-large predictions so that I could include the predictions for all 22 teams. I’m not going to predict 2 at-larges for the Southwest region right now (or any region from that matter). It’s hard to make a case for 2 at larges if top Utah and top CO teams don’t face each other until NXR. But if the top 4 teams are from Utah, I would not be surprised if there is an at-large, since obviously all of the top UT teams face each other many times, and with American Fork and Herriman being the 2 favorites, there are many others that can get third. I think CA teams had 2 at-larges because Newbury Park was dominant and other top ca teams got to face each other many times and results kept changing.
You can’t have Niwot qualifying next year from the SW…. They will ofc qualify in 2024 but next year? seems like an overestimation. Herriman will have to go crazy as well to even get an at large in the SW region, let alone get 2nd at NXN.
You forgot Jesuit LA who will get in from the south if they choose to go…
Not knowledgable about other regions so that’s my take.
Jesuit LA only got 4th at RunningLane. They had a guy drop out but he is graduating. They are losing 2 more seniors including Dowd (their front runner at that meet). They are also looking to be lacking a front runner like the one that Grapevine has (Burlinson).
It will be a close race for second place next year at NXR between Grapevine and Jesuit LA.
In the SW region….behind American Fork it’s probably gonna be a toss-up.
Herriman has a great coach in Soles, and they return 3 guys from NXN, and 2 others from State. He always has guys come out of nowhere
Girls NXN team predictions 1- Niwot CO. I think they can upset Saratoga. Niwot returns their 1-4 and Saratoga loses 2 scorers 2- Lone Peak UT. Losing no one from the 4th place team. That should get them to the podium. 3- Flower Mound TX. This is my bold prediction. They return everyone with a solid top-3. If they close the 4-5 gap and their 4 and 5 improve, I think they can beat Saratoga and Buchanan. 4- Saratoga Springs NY. Was only 5-deep and are losing both Wheelers. They can win again if they find 2 girls to be up there with Bush, Belisle, and Hart 5- Buchanan CA - Losing the older Hutchinson and Sundgren. But they still return a lot of talent so this shouldn’t move them down much 6- Air Academy CO SW at-large 1 - Has a solid #1 in Michalak. Losing no one 7- Southlake Carroll TX - loses a few runners but they always have people come out of nowhere. They were also missing Walsh from NXN 8- American Fork UT - SW at-large 2. They had a solid season and return 5 of their top 6. 9- Webb School of Knoxville TN - qualified this year and returns the whole team. 10- Cuthbertson NC - not everyone finished at NXN. They only lose 1 person from the race. They also finished high despite those circumstances. 11- Mount Prospect IL - placed 5th at NXN. Returns their 1,2,3 and 6. 12- Assumption KY - SE at-large - placed 4th at NXR and returns everybody 13- Jesuit OR - Placed 12th and losing only 1 person 14- North Allegheny PA. Placed 15th and only losing 1 person 15- York IL. Placed 10th and returns most of their squad 16- Campolindo CA. Returns everyone but their #1. 17- JSerra Catholic CA - CA at-large - Qualified this year and returns all of the scorers 18 - Boise Senior ID. At full strength, they should be able to beat Summit (who is losing many seniors) for an NXN-qualifying spot 19 - Fayetteville Manlius NY - would have made NXN if they ran the full squad. But they lose 2 scorers and will need to improve the backend of their scoring 5. They make good improvements each race though 20 - Johnston IA - placed 5th at Heartland and returns everyone. 21 - Minnetonka MN - should be able to qualify from this region after barely missing out and returning 4 of their top 5. 22- Champlain Valley VT - was close to qualifying to NXN and returns the whole team. Not looking to do much damage there though
Lucas Lovejoy is looking to have a very huge 4-5 gap next year so I’m not ready to put them on this list yet, or to think that they will get an at-large
Herriman was 3rd at NXN. Trabuco and Calvert Hall are overrated. Neither will make NXN. AF wins first NXN.
For the girls, Lone Peak will win NXN. Saratoga will be 2nd after filling in gaps with middle school girls.
Overall I predict you did a swell job mate.
Trabuco Overrated? What CA boys teams do you see going to NXN besides Ventura?
Calvert College is returning a 15:55 average. It will be tough for them to beat Belen and McCallie at NXR but they have a good chance at an at-large. Another team to watch from this region will be University WV (the school that Larry Josh Edwards went to). They are young, and they lose only their #3
You can’t have Niwot qualifying next year from the SW…. They will ofc qualify in 2024 but next year? seems like an overestimation. Herriman will have to go crazy as well to even get an at large in the SW region, let alone get 2nd at NXN.
What boys teams from SW do you have qualifying for NXN next year besides American Fork?
Southwest: Boys - Daniel Simmons Girls - Andie Aagard
Bethany Michalik from the southwest finished 3rd in a time of 16:55 beating Andie by ~35 seconds. Bethany is only a junior. Isabel Allori from the southwest is also a JR and finished 3 seconds behind Andie. It is looking to be an interesting battle next year.
Southwest: Boys - Daniel Simmons Girls - Andie Aagard
Bethany Michalik from the southwest finished 3rd in a time of 16:55 beating Andie by ~35 seconds. Bethany is only a junior. Isabel Allori from the southwest is also a JR and finished 3 seconds behind Andie. It is looking to be an interesting battle next year.
One thing to keep in mind is that this was only Aagard’s first season of running ever. She used to be a mountain biker. So with a year of experience we can expect her to make a big jump.
2. Riverton: brings back 4 juniors who will get stronger but needs a 5th man
3/4 Valor: looks similar to Niwot, but they will have a sole senior finishing in the top 3 along with a bunch of 15:40-16:00 juniors
3/4 Niwot: no seniors on the team but they could have a bunch of 15:30-50 juniors led by rocco the only soph
Niwot and Valor order could be flipped. American Fork will be looking to win it all which will increase chances of an at-large.
It would be fun to see Riverton to qualify. They have never made NXN before. But the thing is they go out pretty hard. I think they went out too hard at NXR (went from first at the mile to 5th place at the end).
Herriman (or any team coached by Doug Soles) should never be counted out. Soles always has guys come out of nowhere on his teams. Herriman returns 3 guys from NXR / NXN, another current soph who ran a 16:07 5K at state, and another current junior who ran a 16:07 5K at an NXR open race.