NXN 2023 predictions. Danny Simmons is good but he has nothing on CLAY SHIVELY's foot speed. Though he did not attempt to qualify in 2022, he is the favorite going into 2023.
NXN 2023 predictions. Danny Simmons is good but he has nothing on CLAY SHIVELY's foot speed. Though he did not attempt to qualify in 2022, he is the favorite going into 2023.
I wouldn’t say Shively will win it, but he has improved. He could get to 10 at NXN if things go well.
He is looking to be the new Heartland guy to get top 10 after Breker/Heidesch/Birnbaum are gone
anotha one wrote: CDA looks to be one of the favorites to win NXN next year, unreal starting 5 they will have.
I think it's a quite extreme to say that they will be a favorite to win NXN.
It's very likely that they will make NXN, but considering that Rocky didn't even get into NXN last year, despite being a very very good team, I think that CDA would have to get an auto qualifying spot, which even that isn't a given with how good Crater is going to be, and the fact that other teams (Jesuit, Rocky, Kamiakin, Seattle Prep, Franklin, Boise) will all be trying to gun for that spot.
Ehh… I don’t think Kamiakin will be at that level. There will be way too many teams in the Northwest region better than them. Maybe in a few years they will have a shot at NXN. They haven’t kept up with their previous years’ performances recently
Riverton - 9:19, 9:31, 9:41, 9:43, 9:58, 10:03, 10:04, 10:05 Solid top 4, but needs a 5th to step up. Also going out too fast at Nike might have not been the best idea. They had a great win at RunningLane though.
Riverton - 9:19, 9:31, 9:41, 9:43, 9:58, 10:03, 10:04, 10:05 Solid top 4, but needs a 5th to step up. Also going out too fast at Nike might have not been the best idea. They had a great win at RunningLane though.
I imagine that any Northwest teams need to plan on taking top 2 to go to nationals. NXR SW could very well qualify 2 at large teams next year and 3 that would have stronger consideration than any NXR NW teams.
Riverton - 9:19, 9:31, 9:41, 9:43, 9:58, 10:03, 10:04, 10:05 Solid top 4, but needs a 5th to step up. Also going out too fast at Nike might have not been the best idea. They had a great win at RunningLane though.
I imagine that any Northwest teams need to plan on taking top 2 to go to nationals. NXR SW could very well qualify 2 at large teams next year and 3 that would have stronger consideration than any NXR NW teams.
Yeah Southwest will be deep. Some Colorado teams will also be in the mix. Niwot will be strong, but they will have no seniors which will make it a little harder to make it to NXN. Mountain Vista always seem to reload and have guys step up out of nowhere. Valor Christian will also be a team to watch.
California region will be very strong too, even though Newbury Park won’t be as strong as it has been the last few years (and will struggle to get top 4 in the merge of the state meet).
In the Northwest region, it will be hard for anyone to touch Crater and CDA.
anotha one wrote: CDA looks to be one of the favorites to win NXN next year, unreal starting 5 they will have.
I think it's a quite extreme to say that they will be a favorite to win NXN.
It's very likely that they will make NXN, but considering that Rocky didn't even get into NXN last year, despite being a very very good team, I think that CDA would have to get an auto qualifying spot, which even that isn't a given with how good Crater is going to be, and the fact that other teams (Jesuit, Rocky, Kamiakin, Seattle Prep, Franklin, Boise) will all be trying to gun for that spot.
Bozeman MT will be another team to watch. They only graduate 2 varsity guys
Boise looks like they will be the top Idaho team again.
Allie Bruce, Sammy Smith, Audrey Orme (5:09 1600 as a 9th grader), Zoe Sims (5:21/11:46, and Lola Boice, who ran 19:51 at NXR. Without Sammy Smith, they were 3rd and ahead of Rocky Mountain by 20 points. Orme is an upgrade over their #3 runner. They could have 3 top 15 girls at NXR. Rocky loses 3 of their top 7, so they may be out of it. Preston looks like they return most everything.
The Jesuit girls look like the team to beat in the NW, though.
Ryan Shmidt: 9:40, 4:36(frosh yr time) 11th ( ran some of varsity xc last year)
Will Demarco: 4:29, 9:46 12th
Brady Barber: 9:41 12th
Thomas Fields: 4:32, 9:45 11th
Luke Hnatt: 9:59, 4:37 10th
After a disapointing finish at NXN last year, CBA looks like they are coming back for vengence and can definetly make a run at the title with no Newbury Park.
Girls in the SW region- Air Academy returns their whole team. And Niwot is always stacked. I think the whole region is strong and could have some surprises!
This post was edited 27 seconds after it was posted.
Here is my watchlist for each region, each one separated into an A tier and a B tier list (not in any particular order) with A tier meaning could challenge for NXN top 15, and B tier meaning could get to NXN on a good day:
Northwest:
A tier - Crater, Coeur D'Alene, Rocky Mountain, Franklin, Jesuit
B tier - Kamiakin, Boise, Seattle Prep, Eastlake
California:
A tier - Great Oak, Ventura, San Clemente, Trabuco Hills
B tier - Newbury Park, Granada, Crescenta Valley
Southwest:
A tier - American Fork, Herriman, Niwot, Lone Peak
B tier - Mountain View, Corner Canyon, Valor Christian, Riverton
Midwest:
A tier - Noblesville, Downers Grove, Carmel
B - tier - Mason, Plainfield
Southeast:
A tier - Belen Jesuit, University, McCallie, Calvert Hall College
B tier - The Bolles School, Brentwood, Farragut
Northeast:
A tier - Christian Brothers Academy
B tier - Episcopal Academy, North Allegheny
New York:
At least on the guys side, this whole region is looking very weak for next year.
Southlake:
A tier - Southlake Carroll, Jesuit LA, The Woodlands,
Here is my watchlist for each region, each one separated into an A tier and a B tier list (not in any particular order) with A tier meaning could challenge for NXN top 15, and B tier meaning could get to NXN on a good day:
Northwest:
A tier - Crater, Coeur D'Alene, Rocky Mountain, Franklin, Jesuit
B tier - Kamiakin, Boise, Seattle Prep, Eastlake
California:
A tier - Great Oak, Ventura, San Clemente, Trabuco Hills
B tier - Newbury Park, Granada, Crescenta Valley
Southwest:
A tier - American Fork, Herriman, Niwot, Lone Peak
B tier - Mountain View, Corner Canyon, Valor Christian, Riverton
Midwest:
A tier - Noblesville, Downers Grove, Carmel
B - tier - Mason, Plainfield
Southeast:
A tier - Belen Jesuit, University, McCallie, Calvert Hall College
B tier - The Bolles School, Brentwood, Farragut
Northeast:
A tier - Christian Brothers Academy
B tier - Episcopal Academy, North Allegheny
New York:
At least on the guys side, this whole region is looking very weak for next year.
Southlake:
A tier - Southlake Carroll, Jesuit LA, The Woodlands,
B tier - Grapevine, Austin Vandergrift, Coppell
As far as the NW teams go, on another thread someone said one of the other Boise teams is getting a couple solid transfers that will help them enter the NXR discussion. It’ll be interesting to see if it pans out.
Issaquah has an impressive top 5 of non-senior 3200 times that could put them in the discussion as well.
Here is my watchlist for each region, each one separated into an A tier and a B tier list (not in any particular order) with A tier meaning could challenge for NXN top 15, and B tier meaning could get to NXN on a good day:
Northwest:
A tier - Crater, Coeur D'Alene, Rocky Mountain, Franklin, Jesuit
B tier - Kamiakin, Boise, Seattle Prep, Eastlake
California:
A tier - Great Oak, Ventura, San Clemente, Trabuco Hills
B tier - Newbury Park, Granada, Crescenta Valley
Southwest:
A tier - American Fork, Herriman, Niwot, Lone Peak
B tier - Mountain View, Corner Canyon, Valor Christian, Riverton
Midwest:
A tier - Noblesville, Downers Grove, Carmel
B - tier - Mason, Plainfield
Southeast:
A tier - Belen Jesuit, University, McCallie, Calvert Hall College
B tier - The Bolles School, Brentwood, Farragut
Northeast:
A tier - Christian Brothers Academy
B tier - Episcopal Academy, North Allegheny
New York:
At least on the guys side, this whole region is looking very weak for next year.
Southlake:
A tier - Southlake Carroll, Jesuit LA, The Woodlands,
B tier - Grapevine, Austin Vandergrift, Coppell
Looks good for the most part. For California, Oakdale is a team to include Mira Costa looks good too. And Buchanan is on the rise.
Southwest - I would add Mountain Vista. They always reload, have good depth, and are up there fighting for a spot.
Midwest - Mas. Jackson from Ohio could challenge Mason for the state title. There are 2 Plainfield teams in IL - Plainfield South and Plainfield North.
Northeast - Union Catholic and Westfield NJ need to be included
New York is looking weak I agree. But I think St Anthony’s and Saratoga Springs will make it out based on track times
Heartland is looking strong too actually. Wayzata and Stevens Point made it last year and finished fairly well. Stevens Point returns all scorers and Wayzata loses only 1 person
Most of these seasons bests are from March so I would expect at least a few big PRs coming before season's end. Newbury Park going for their 5th straight XC title!!
Most of these seasons bests are from March so I would expect at least a few big PRs coming before season's end. Newbury Park going for their 5th straight XC title!!
Freshman Micah Dickran - 1:59 / 4:26
Junior Arnav Shetty - 1:59 / 4:27 / 9:15
Junior Nathan Porter - 2:00 / 4:24
Sophomore Jack Watson - 2:01 / 4:32
Junior Dev Doshi - 4:23 / 9:32
Sophomore Braden Herrera - 4:25 / 9:37
Freshman Noah Sloan - 4:30 / 9:37
Wow that’s 4 sophomores and under in this group, and it doesn’t include stud freshman Bernardino and younger Cantu. Solid setup for 2024 already. Even better setup for 2025.
I agree that Newbury isn't done line everyone has said. But it's ridiculous, at least at this point, to say that they can get the job done with that lineup. CBA, Southlake Carroll, American Fork, Crater, and Belen Jesuit are all quite a bit better.
Not to mention some of those tough Northwest and Southwest teams that run all of their times at altitude and could match those track times if it was at sea level.