Those are not the two possibilities. I encourage you to look at what it means to qualify for Kona as an amateur triathlete versus pro triathlete and to look at his results at Waco and compare it to other races to empirically understand how he compares to other amateur triathletes and to pro triathletes. He’s in the top 20-30% of amateurs his age, which is not bad for a first Ironman, but that’s a few hours behind a typical pro triathlete and at least a couple of hours behind what it typically takes to qualify for Kona as an amateur. Waco was a weird race with a small field of slower amateurs. But there were still a substantial number of Kona slots.
Some of your confusion, I think, relates to the amateur/pro designation. At major triathlons, there is a pro field and an amateur field. To earn a pro card/elite license, you have to perform at a certain level (think top 1% — most pros can put out 340-360+ watts on a bike for an hour, break 5 in the 500 free, and run 65-70 in a half marathon). Then you can race in the pro field. There were no pros at Waco as there was no pro field. If there was, you’d have a bunch of guys go around 8 flat, or even breaking 8 hours.
It is insanely difficult to qualify for Kona as a pro. Only 40 pro men earn the right to do so at Kona. Meanwhile, 2,000 amateur men qualify. You typically have to be in the top 1-5% of your AG to qualify for Kona as an amateur. The real world championship is the pro race at Kona. Think of those 40 athletes as the counterpart to the runners who qualify for the track world championships.