Hicks is a full year older than Nico; Hicks was born July 25, 2001 and Nico was born July 27, 2002. I believe a one-year age difference during male runners’ formative years is significant from a physical development standpoint, particularly as it pertains to the development of the strength that’s required to win a cross country 10k. Hicks winning today at age 21 is in line with the recent championship history I cited. The men’s NCAA cross country champion has been 21 or older in 82 percent of the races held since 2000.
Being one year older and still only being 21 years old is a bit different to the recent championship history you cited which contains a man in his mid twenties winning back to back championships don't you think?
I’m not sure what you mean. By “recent history” I was referring to all men’s championship races since 2000. That was the basis of my analysis and the reason I thought Nico winning would be possible but not likely, and why I mentioned Hicks or Maier would be the safer pick.
“Recent” is of course a relative term. In the context of NCAA cross country championships that began in 1938, I considered the previous 22 years since 2000 to be recent compared to the total history. The main thing for me in selecting which years to analyze was striking a balance between having a sufficient amount of data from which I could identify meaningful patterns and limit the influence of outliers, while still having data that are similar enough and therefore relevant and helpful for making a prediction about a race happening this year. I think I achieved that.
