MN Cross Country Predictions 2023

I think it will be eerily similar to 2018, when a different Roseville guy won state (Acer Iverson). The senior favorite vs. the breakout junior. I agree with you, and think history repeats itself with experience winning out. Being at the front with 800m to go and someone shoulder to shoulder with you is something that can't be prepared for. It will definitely be a fun race!

We could also see a situation where Scott beats Mechura at state and the other way around at NXR.

Mechura beat Scott in the 3200 at Hamline.

Dietrick seems to be racing on Thursday with Wayzata’s JV

Wow Griak allows 10 guys on the team and he’s racing JV….
Maybe it’s a good thing that he isn’t running on a tough course so he doesn’t risk more injuries.

Rocori invitational

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Dietrick ran the first race of the season.

Stillwater dominated

Looked like a hilly course. Wayzata’s times are similar to Mayo Invite. Stillwater’s seem quite a bit slower

Griak Day!

I am going with Shively, Scott, Franzen, Putz today with Point taking the team title. It'll be the first meet this year they are at full strength.

Shively recently ranked #4 in country by Dyestat and Scott slotted in at #29 with Putz and Mechura both honorable mention. Franzen is legit though, wouldn't surprise me if he pulls a little upset today. Putz is top returner and probably will lead majority of race, but hard to put him in the top 3.

Assuming Wayzata and Tonka go 1-2 for MN teams, I'll be interested to see who gets 3rd. Probably Bloomington Jefferson or SW?

Bloomington Jefferson crushed SW at the St Olaf Showcase. Southwest’s #4 didn’t have his best race and finished as their 5th there. But one of the Altstatts had an off day there too, and he did much better at the Waconia invite.

Other teams that could be the third MN team are Mounds View (although their top transfer is ineligible to run varsity), and possibly Edina.

Mounds View was actually ranked top 3 in the preseason.

Southwest will be missing their #6&7 from the Metro Invite (Schendel, 17:29, 8th grader) and Schultz (17:48, freshman). So this reduces the depth behind their top 5, giving them less room for error.

It’s also worth noting that Edina is back in the same section as Wayzata and Southwest so this will give a preview of how that section is going to look. Southwest and Edina will be racing each other for the first time.

Actually, Mounds View will also be missing one of their top guys Kalmes. This will make it harder for them to become the #3 MN team behind Wayzata and Minnetonka. They do have some good depth though

Edina boys team had an amazing day. They just kept moving up the whole race. And they return everyone next year except for their #5.

Minnetonka was in the top 2 for the first 3000 m, and then they dropped so many places at the end.

No Gullickson, but Wayzata girls team still won.

White Bear boys team wins the Maroon race. They have a solid top 5

A few random guys Griak thoughts:

• Wayzata ran well and just 10 points out of 2nd despite Kissell falling back hard the last 2k. Big gap between them and Point though.
• Tonka 2nd at 3k and finished 6th while Edina was 11th at 3k and finished 5th. Edina ran great and Tonka fell apart. Tonka still #2 team in state, but just not today.
• Individually, no huge surprises up top. Obviously great races by Scott, Mechura, and Sutter. Annandale's Wirth had a heck of a day to get 8th.
• Any thoughts of Perham > East are vanished. Perham had everyone run and finished 23rd. East ran well- 2nd best 5th guy for any MN team today.

What are some more takeaways from today??

Could Minnetonka potentially upset Wayzata at state this year? They were ahead of them at the 3k but most of them dropped places after that, and one of their regular scorers dropped 95.

Seems like the older Fries is running really well again.

Wayzata girls team still dominated without Gullickson

Could they? Sure. Odds of it happening? 15-20%. Wayzata historically run well when the stakes are high in championship races. Have done it time and again and winning is second nature to that program at this point. As for Minnetonka's track record I won't speak.

oAnother factor to consider is the boost Wayzata should receive later this season as Parker Dietrick rounds into racing shape, having returned to action recently. Their weakness as of now is certainly their lack of a 5, and Parker should significantly bolster that position if he can get back to his best. Dietrick finished 33rd last year at the State meet. The truth is Wayzata have a legit shot at placing all 5 in the top 25 this fall, which would make them virtually untouchable. I heavily favor them to win AAA and really like their odds of securing another NXN berth.

Grace and Lauren Ping

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So it looks like Wayzata and Edina established themselves as the top 2 teams in 6AAA.

Southwest was almost 200 points behind Edina and they weren’t missing any of their 5 scorers.

Even if Southwest does close the 4-5 gap, they will still struggle to beat Wayzata and Edina at sections.

MN has a very solid junior class - Mechura, Wirth, Anderson, and Weber.
There is also Anez from Willmar and he ran a 15:23 at the Brave Like Gabe invite. Don’t think he ran the Griak invite