NXR Northwest Predictions

What would they learn at NXN they didn’t learn last year at Running Lane?

Aside from the Youngs, what boys in HS right now have even been to NXN? It’s a new course to almost everyone.

Lex didn’t race at NXN because he was injured at the end of 2019. But Leo did.
Another reason why Leo will beat Lex at NXN. this happened yesterday and at Clovis

Here are the other boys that ran it in 2019 as freshmen.
Elliott McArthur MN (looked like a college student back then but he has been dropping in the rankings in his grade. It will be a challenge for him to get top 10 at the mn state meet this year)

Matt Rounds NY (having an underwhelming season, he’s like #4 on the team that won’t make NXN)

Nick Sullivan. CBA NJ His team is so good and will do well at NXN and might challenge for the team title next year. He will definitely be at NXN

Owen Shifflet VA. Team is not NXN caliber this year but he will likely make it individually.

Ben Perry FM NY. His team isn’t even close to top 5 in NY. Might not even make state. 10 guys on the roster total. He’s far behind the top 2 guys on the team

I will change my predictions for 4th and 5th place teams

4. Bishop Kelly ID

5. Boise Senior ID

Jesuit OR had 4 guys above the 180 speed rating yesterday. They should be able to win this region.

Their 5th is pretty far back but their 6th is right there to push him, so they are both fighting for the 5th spot

But Rocky Mountain will still beat Crater and autoqualify

I also think that Lincoln and West Salem should be able to beat all Idaho teams that aren’t Rocky Mountain

In general, Jesuit, Rocky Mountain and Crater are looking to be locks for the top 3 and the only ones going to NXN

the rest of the spots are up for grabs

And word on the return of Eric Schumacher from Jesuit this season?

Did he transfer to a school close to his new home or is he still at Jesuit?

You have to look at Jesuit’s history. How many times has Jesuit been ranked #1 going into NXR and then fallen flat on their faces?
thr OR state course is fast, and overestimated.

Washington is way behind Oregon and maybe even Idaho at this point.

Is the explanation as simple as the impact of Washington’s COVID policies on high school programs in the state? Regardless of whether the policies were the right choice in terms of managing a pandemic, the impact on HS sports and education seems pretty dramatic when you compare the most restrictive states to the most lax ones during Covid.

As to Oregon, for whatever reason it seems Oregon youth kept running and training at a much high rate that Washington youth.

Seattle Prep was the best Washington team of the day and brings their 1-4 back. If they can find a fifth guy, they are gonna make NXR interesting next year.

Kamiakin is a young team too and can surprise some people. they have had a couple of NXN berths in the past

Issaquah crushed Eastlake and have a nice sophomore class.

Did Eastlake peak too early?

History is just that. The past. Jesuit dismantled the state 6A race. 33pts is a good race. In unfavorable conditions as well. Front 4 look as tough as anyone. Jesuits 5-6 again are as good as anyones in the region and are just starting to come into form. Looks to be a cold one next weekend. Idaho teams will be tough but I would in no way look at history as an indicator as to how Jesuit will perform next week. It will be a great race regardless. Lots of talent and I think 3 teams get into NXN from the PNW. To much talent in the region.

When was the last time (before 2020) was Jesuit was the favorite going into NXR?

In 2017-2019 Kamiakin was the best team and qualified for nxn

2017 Kamiakin was not even in the rankings going into NXR. Jesuit was and finished outside the top 4

dyestatxcrankings.runnerspace.com

DyeStat XC RANKINGS - News - High School Regional Rankings Boys XC 2017 - 11/2/17

Boys Regional Rankings - 11/2/17 By Paul Schmitz of DyeStatAll of the top ranked teams continue to hold onto their No. 1 spots. A few newcomers appear in the rankings, but most of the ranked teams have run near their potentia...

Link:dyestatxcrankings.runnerspace.com/gpro...

That is the last time they were ranked #1 (outside of last year with no NXN). Who knows what they could have done last year. I do give RM the edge over them since they haven't raced at this course since 2019 and RM is there very week.

I believe Ethan Pedersen has been sick or injured the last two weeks. Did not run at their District qualifier and did not run well at the state meet. If he had won the race or been in the top 3 they may have won. Unfortunately just some bad luck for them.

I am not sure exactly how strict Oregon was; however for Washington we had athletes meet up and run together on their own time and without an official coaching. Our AD still received angry calls of unmasked runners training together. It was absolutely ridiculous. I think it may be another 2-3 years until Washington is able to get back to what they were before.

Any idea for individuals??

1/2 is a Gorze-Heemeyer tossup, 80/20 in Gorze's favor. This may seem controversial, but Heemeyer ran really well at Firman, and if anything, he's gotten better since then. With good competition on a home course, he could potentially take it. Gorze however, is the better runner when looking at speed ratings and times, but you have to remember that he's had better competition and faster courses all year.

I think that Alex Garvia-Silver, Tyler Sainsbury, Matt Thomas, Jack Meier, Zach Munson, Stockton Stevens, Wes Shipsey, Austin Clough, and Sam Fish all have a shot for top 5, or at least top 10.

Beyond that is impossible to guess.

For anyone thinking that this list is too Idaho-heavy, you have to remember that Idaho meets usually have tougher courses and less competition compared to other states like Oregon and Washinton.

Jesuit, Rocky, and Crater will all go to NXN and between them could have five of the top 10. Gorze, Heemeyer, Nenow, Clevenger, and Sainsbury could all be in automatic qualifying spots, though not all top 5.

Who are the other 5 who get the at large bids? To add to your list, Bozeman has a couple really good runners and Samy Anderson and Logan Law in Oregon should be in the mix. Plus Ethan Pedersen and Cruise Corvin in Washington. Schneider and Recupero could be in it too if they are in a fast recovery mode.

It’ll be a mad rush for the first half mile to avoid the congestion and It’ll be a big pack coming down the hill the first time. Gorze will probably have already broken ahead, so it’ll be interesting who risks bonking to go with him. Were I Heemeyer, I’d run my own race, let Gorze go ahead, and wait until the bottom of the hill the first time to make my move. It he’s going to beat him, do it with a faster second half.

I realize that’s pushing it to 20, but 10-20 might be close.

Entries list

athletic.net

Track & Field, Cross Country Results, Statistics

Meet results and team scores.

Link:www.athletic.net/CrossCountry/meet/206...

All I see is the list of teams who put the meet on their calendar. I think this meet might have a pdf entries list when it is out.

Entries released at 8pm PST tonight