Does anyone else have NAU third?

I tend to agree with you.

Ryan Raff seems to run better at altitude, not really at NCAAs, and Theo Quax is good but not the top 40 finish they need.

Brodey Hasty has pulled a clutch race out a hat the last two NCAAs, which may mean that he can rise to the occasion again but I wouldn’t count on that.

Although NAU does seem to be able to show up and run cross country when it counts. Smith seemed to really understand how to train them for the course the last time NCAAs were at OSU.

At this point I would say it’s more likely that either OSU or Stanford wins it than NAU wins, but we shall see. That’s why they run the race.

I would never count on Stanford to be clutch when it counts in XC until they prove us wrong. They are addicted to 5th place and I would expect them to find a way to repeat their disappointment of the last 5 championships.

It's not even a matter of clutch. It's just a matter of performing the same way they have the last 12 months. But it is a matter of the 4 and 5, they're iffier for Stnaford I agree.

Don't they have 3 really strong freshmen?
I often theorize that the difference between the freshman phenom w/the most hype like Colin S. isn't too far off from other freshman phenom like Zane Bergen or Gary Peters or Harrison Reindhart consisdering it's such a variable year

Technically you're correct as Brodey Hasty has only finished as All-American once in XC. But to argue that he hasn't consistently performed at NCAA XC is absurd. He has actually been as consistent as they come at NCAA XC -- 46th in '19, 44th in '20, 39th in '21.

I could also easily see Kusche finishing in the top 25 considering he was 37th last year and ran 13:28 on the track.

The concerns at #5 are real if Sahlman doesn't run, and if you want to have Stanford as the favorites over NAU, I can see that. But it seems crazy to me that after winning five of the last six titles and returning four All-Americans, you can't see a path to victory for NAU.

Gault has it right this time. They have 4 guys who will almost certainly be All-American as well as two legit top 10 guys. They just need to find a 5th, and between Raff, Prosser, Nyoak, Quax, and Sahlman, I’m sure they will find that 5th. Stanford has a fantastic top 3 but their 4-5 will be outside the top 40. OSU is the opposite, they may have 5 All-Americans but there’s a good chance their first scorer comes in outside the top 20. Above all else, NAU has the clutch factor and the strength and that is what gives them the edge imo (and what’s led to all their titles the past few years).

I don’t think I’m familiar w Brody Hasty outside of the last couple years across all the races. I didn’t know he placed that high in 19 and that he was too 50 in 2020 so you might have a point.

I’d be curious to hear Mr Gault’s take on Stanford’s freshman potential or I’d be curious to see Gault stack up OSU against BAU.

I cannot see two NAU guys getting in front of Isai Rodriguez and I doubt three NAU guys can get in front of Alex Maier. beyond that, Shisama (the msg boards don’t let us spell his name out), Rory Leonard, Ryan Shope and Shea Foster could all potentially beat Kuesche, wouldn’t you agree? I believe when he ran for SE Louisiana, Foster beat Kuesche in that NCAA 5k. I don’t think any of them are sure things but I’d bet money on the team.

but I agree, NAU has a path to victory

NAU will easily win barring injuries. Colin is being sat for first few races just like Nico. He has to adapt to the altitude and mileage. I predict we will see him at Nuttycombe if training well and no injuries. My predictions for NAU: Nico top 5, Bosley top 10-15, Colin top 20, Kusche top 25, Hasty top 35.

Is there a way to watch Stillwater?

NAU has the advantage of Mickey Mouse courses. So they can focus on meaningless things like winning an XC race. Meanwhile at Stanford they’re studying to be the next engineers and doctors. People that actually contribute to society. So my money is on NAU.

Sounds like one of those OKST guys might not be running this year, so that doesn’t hell their cause.

If sherry or Bergen turned out to be better than CS over 10k wouldn't be too shocking. Them not being good enough to score also wouldn't be shocking.

We can make up all the form charts we want but odds are the title comes down to some 5th man stepping up and finishing 50th versus having an off day and finishing 100th. Theo Quax 114 isn't going to get the job done. Run 40s faster and get 50th and they probably win. And you can do the same with Stanford. If Sprout finishes like 80 again, it gets tough for Stanford.