The forecast for Berlin looks PERFECT. Just how fast will Kipchoge go?

If (and it's a pretty big if) he were to go for sub2, how does he practically do that? Go out at 60:15 and negative split?

Seems suicidal to go out in 59:59

But what do I know.

You appear to know enough that Eliud has ZERO chance of breaking 2.

Hes not breaking 2, good grief.

But WR is definitely in play. If all goes well (BIG IF) maybe 2:01:15? Even sub 2:01 would be asking a ton from this man.

I think at this point if he pulls that off, he's pretty solidly in company of only a few people who've so dominated things so ridiculously that when it later came out that drugs were at play I had to convince myself I'd never fall for such ridiculousness again (McGuire, Bonds, Armstrong...). Of course there's still Phelps, Jordan, Brady...

Little prediction : 2:02:23

His doping is entirely mechanical. Boing boing!

But you run in the era you are in, with what you have. Rooting for him.

He's going out in 59:59 and then putting the hammer down. We're looking at a possible sub 1:59 dude. I just spoke with him outside a Starbucks in Stuttgart! He told me "those Letsrun wannabes and Monday morning quarterbacks are going to eat his dust for doubting him". He then bought be a cold brew and we hit the road together. True story big daddy!

She already is.

Kosgei 2:14:14

D’Amato 2:19:12 (+4:58)

Seidel 2:24:42 (+5:30)

Dang I recalled incorrectly.

Kosgei 2:14:04*
D’Amato 2:19:12 +5:08

Seidel 2:24:42 +5:30

2:14:04 but yeah still correct

Just happy to see him race! I think we’ve become a lot better at predicting the weather than racers’ times.

I think that kipchogue will be top 3 maybe second or third and the time 2 02/2 03 or dnf, the age and the years at the top takes his damage! Is good for the sport a change i think tha Adola is going to repeat this year with 2 01/ 2 02!

Just as a matter of respecting the statistical history, I’m going to predict he starts to decline and if I’m wrong, well I’m completely cool with that. I’ll keep on predicting it every marathon he runs until it sticks or it becomes comical.

I still say he wins this one in 2:02:59, but with a painful, gritty last 10k.

I just hope his pacers stay in long enough at the right place to allow him to draft a bit.

He’s defied statistical history for so long, let’s give him one more bite at the apple, 2:01.20. He can grind out a couple of close, slow wins next year in Boston and NY.

He will drop out.

Real racing? Anyone is welcome to join Kipchoge up front, last I checked.

Pacers go through 1/2 at 60:45

Kipchoge runs 2:03 and places 2nd.

Also, consider this - say Kipchoge didn’t have a pace team. The result would be that he would just go out slower and lead a pack of runners. Might be a bit more entertaining but it would make the end result (a victory for him) much more of a lock. What do you suppose would be the consequence of this scenario? Kipchoge going out at a conservative/smart pace for the first half would virtually guarantee victory, due to banking energy, unlike going out at WR pace via his pacemakers and possibly blowing up. The field actually has a better chance of beating him if he has pacemakers. I mean can you even imagine some of the scorching 5k splits he’d inject into the later stages of the race if he took it conservative for the first half?? The field wouldn’t stand a chance. Yeah I mean they probably don’t have a chance either way, but beating Kipchoge in a tactical race on a course like Berlin? Nope