Is everyone forgetting that JI is already 1500 Olympic champ? Even if Wightman were to take the crown in 2024, it basically leaves him equal in the 1500 during the Olympics, and that's assuming JI does nothing in 2024.
If he runs 55.5 or faster, as you suggest, he may have nothing to fend off attacks in the home straight. The illusion here is that Jakob has reserves of stamina he hasn't used. He may not. Even with a slower lap he had nothing left to counter Wightman.
Does Wightman have the energy/belief to attack early enough off a hotter pace? And he might have to go past the two Kenyans who could put up a fight having queue up behind Jakob instead of challenging him. It’s a lot of hypotheticals and we’ll never know. Jakob couldn’t pick it up from 54-high pace the last lap, but that could easily be down to him burning off excess energy keeping Cheruiyot at bay.
Wightman has the edge in speed on Jakob. If he is at least on Jakob's shoulder in the home straight then I would tend to give it to him. However, as you indicate, a lot can happen in a race before the home straight. My view is that to beat runners with more natural speed Jakob would have to start his run from some distance out - as Elliott did, and El G - but not lead all the way. But against runners capable of sub-3.29 that's a big ask, because that's also close to Jakob's limit.
Is everyone forgetting that JI is already 1500 Olympic champ? Even if Wightman were to take the crown in 2024, it basically leaves him equal in the 1500 during the Olympics, and that's assuming JI does nothing in 2024.
This is a silly conversation.
It isn't, if Wightman is able to beat Jakob more than he loses to him. Their standing isn't necessarily defined by one championship race.
There was 3:24 -3:25 pace only once if I recall. Or even faster. James Robinson went 52.8 for the first 400 and 1:47.8 800m in some meet in '81 with Coe in tow.