First and foremost, we need to define "prime Bekele". Is it just the Beijing Bekele, or is it the Bekele from 2003 to 2009? If it is the latter, I can imagine Jakob beats him in a few races, but if we count only the Bekele in 2008, then that's a different story. Bekele was in a class of his own that year.
Bekele
no contest.. Bekele would beat him by 150-200m in 10.000m
Rejectedryan wrote:
With the way he has been dispatching world class fields with ease lately I think we should compare Jakob with prime Bekele. How would he fair in a championship race versus him? How about a diamond league type time trial? What type of tactics would Bekele use to try to beat Jakob and vice versa? Bekele doesn't have the 1500m speed of Jakob but he has dropped 53 second 400s at the end of 12:5x 5ks so if its left down to the last 400 it could be a close race. Jakob is now known for winding up the pace over the last 800-1200 meters and grinding away but thats the exact tactic that Bekele used to obliderete Kipchoge and the rest of the field in the 2008 olympic final 5000m. If Bekele tried winding it up from 2000m out could Jakob stick on him and outkick or would he die out. Maybe the other way around could happen.. discus
After the 2023 track season it could be interesting to evaluate if anything has changed when comparing Jakob to prime Bekele.
Last year most posters (myself included) thought Jakob didn´t equal prime Bekele. Several posters even thought it was blasphemous or disrespectful just to make the comparison.
Many posters agreed that Bekele ran his very best championship race in the 2008 Olympic final so let´s see how the key splits were in that final:
last 1600m 3:57.01
last 1000m 2:25.30
last 800m 1:52.23
last 400m 53.87
End time 12:57.85
Apart from running these great times Bekele destroyed 2 great runners: Kipchoge with 5 seconds and Soi with almost 8.5seconds. Lagat was much further behind. So it´s understandable that some people thought that Bekele´s performance never would be bested.
But what were the splits in the 2023 WC final in Budapest?
last 1600m 3:54.14
last 1000m 2:21.07
last 800m 1:50.65
last 400m 52:45
End time 13:11.20
I wonder if people realize how great this race was when considering the pace of the last 1600m. Of course the end time was more than 13 seconds slower but the last 1600m 3
seconds faster, the last 1000m more than 4 seconds faster, the last 1.5 faster and the last lap almost 1.5 seconds faster.
I think 2023 Jakob might have beaten 2008 Bekele. At least he would have come very close. More about that in my next post.
Why do I think 2023 Jakob might have beaten Bekele in the 2008 Olympic 5000m final?
Because Jakob has shown in 2023 that he can finish very fast even if the last 2000m, 1600m, 1000m and 800m also are historical fast.
JWH stated last year in post 127 above that he didn´t think that 2022 Jakob could finish a
12:57 race with a last 1600m in 3:57 in 53 or faster. That might have been true but peak 2023 Jakob can. He finished the Budapest final well under 53 for the last lap which Bekele to my knowledge never has been able to do in a championship race.
But hadn´t Bekele as a 12:37 runner far superior endurance compared to Jakob´s PB at 12:48 so Jakob wouldn´t have been able to finish as fast in a sub 13 race (Olympic record)?
Well, Bekele WAS a 12.37 runner when he set the former 5000m WR in May 2004 but he never broke 12:40 again. In 2005 his SB was 12:40, 12:48 in 2006, 12:49 in 2007, 12:50 in 2008, 12:53 in 2009 and 12:55 in 2012 so in 2008 his SB was slower than Jakob´s PB.
And Jakob´s PB in the 5000m will possibly improve significantly first time he runs a time trial
5000m under good condition. His 2 miles WB and 2000m WR indicates a 5000m in 12:34 if he had raced the 5000m in peak shape this year.
So 2023 Jakob had without doubt much better endurance in the 5000m than 2008 Bekele and was of course also much faster in the shorter distances:
More than 5 seconds in the 1500m, almost 7 seconds in the 2000m and almost 20 seconds in
the 2 mile! I acknowledge that Bekele possibly not has PBs reflecting his potential in these 2 distances so it is possibly more fair to look at the 3000m. Bekele ran numerous 3000 meters in his track career with a PB of 7:25.79set in 2007. Jakob´s PB is 7:23.63 run on tired legs in Eugene recently (the day after his mile 3:43 PB) BUT his 2000m WR and 2 miles WB indicates a 3000m
in 7:19 so 2023 Jakob is probably around 6 seconds faster than prime Bekele in the 3000m.
(A poster stated above (#52) one year ago that prime Bekele would win easily over Jakob in all
distances over 1500m; that statement didn´t age well!).
The numbers don´t lie: 2023 Jakob seems to be quite superior to 2008 Bekele in all distances from 1500m to 5000m.
But what about 2004 Bekele? Wouldn´t he have destroyed Jakob in a championship race the year he broke the 5000m WR?
I will address that question in my next post.
Your analysis is deeply flawed because you’re comparing the last 1600 meters of 5,000m championship races that were very different.
1) Bekele ran the first 3,400 of the 2008 Olympic final in 9:00. Jakob crossed 3,400 in this year’s world championships final in 9:17. That’s a huge difference when looking at their last 1600!
2) Bekele was front-running his last 1600. Jakob was drafting behind others.
3) It’s not just about the last 1600. We should look at the last 2,000. From 3,000 to 3,400, Bekele ran 59.96! Jakob’s split for that segment was 62.55.
4) Jakob had super spikes. Bekele did not.
Add it all up, and we have Bekele front-running his final 2k in 4:56.97 in regular spikes after hitting 3k in 8:00.85. Jakob ran his final 2k in 4:56.69 in super shoes while drafting behind others after hitting 3k in 8:14.61. Bekele’s run was much better.
McRunnin wrote:
Your analysis is deeply flawed because you’re comparing the last 1600 meters of 5,000m championship races that were very different.
1) Bekele ran the first 3,400 of the 2008 Olympic final in 9:00. Jakob crossed 3,400 in this year’s world championships final in 9:17. That’s a huge difference when looking at their last 1600!
2) Bekele was front-running his last 1600. Jakob was drafting behind others.
3) It’s not just about the last 1600. We should look at the last 2,000. From 3,000 to 3,400, Bekele ran 59.96! Jakob’s split for that segment was 62.55.
4) Jakob had super spikes. Bekele did not.
Add it all up, and we have Bekele front-running his final 2k in 4:56.97 in regular spikes after hitting 3k in 8:00.85. Jakob ran his final 2k in 4:56.69 in super shoes while drafting behind others after hitting 3k in 8:14.61. Bekele’s run was much better.
I agree here. I still think Bekele is still better right now. Jakob will obviously improve but imagine if Bekele had supershoes.