AZ XC Predictions

In the early 90s Page was ranked 2nd nationally led by twins Theo and Tim M. I think they were 14:30s and their #5 was around 15:25.

A year or two later Carona del Sol was #5. I was always impressed with 2A Hopi and how well they competed in the All Class Doug Connely Inv. U of A and NAU both had great teams back then as well.

Yeah, Hopi was incredible. Recently, these past few years, they've under-performed. Coach Baker said he felt it was his fault, either not doing enough hills or workouts or whatever was lacking and potentially not building the mental strength like he did in previous years.

I ran Doug Conley my freshman year (currently going to be a senior for 2022-2023) and I must say it is a great course. Unfortunately it is not around anymore.

Yeah, U of A has always been at least somewhat decent for XC. NAU was good, I know Scott Pestka was a runner up there in late 80s, maybe early 90s, (now his brother's sons are competing at Shadow Mountain), but anyways, now NAU is literally the best on the field.

There have been some exceptional high school runners from Arizona. For instance: Leo Daschbach, Billy Orman, Bernie Montoya, etc. but this year is looking rather pale in comparison unfortunately.

Highland will win both the boys and girls race at state

For D1, most definitely. They have good depth and have all but 1 of their top 12 returning.

As for individuals, that's where I think its a toss-up. In D1, Crewe Resendez will most likely win (especially considering Ryan Denhof was injured during track of 2022).

For D2, I am not entirely sure. Both Lucas Grunden and Brandon Martz performed poorly compared to how their track season turned out. There are also several other individuals who are very close to these two (Ethan Fritzinger, Martin Breinholt, etc.)

D3 is guaranteed Cesar Diaz if he can perform the way he did last year. However, his track season this year was sub-par.

D4 is also a toss-up but not nearly as competitive as the other three divisions.

As for the girls, Highland and Desert Vista are a huge toss-up. If Lauren Ping actually races, it will be interesting as Desert Vista has several returning girls who performed very well last year. Highland beat out DV by 7 points last year at the state meet. One of Desert Vista's varsity girls is graduating so it is more likely that Highland will win; however, it is still hard to say at the moment.

Why might Ping not race this fall? I know she had some type of injury in the track season….still that, or some other reason?

That is the only reason I can think of. She raced I want to say once during track. I'm sure she'll be fine for XC but if she isn't then its going to be easy for Highland.

came here to say that ethan fritzinger is my dark horse for this year

az.milesplit.com

Highland Boys Team 5th Place Sweepstakes Race | Desert Twilight XC Festival

Henry Domine

Desert Twilight XC Festival

Link:az.milesplit.com/videos/581899/highlan...

Lauren Ping is still running. 17:47

She also has a freshman brother who ran a 16:24

NXR entries posted

nxrsw.runnerspace.com

NXR Southwest Regional - News - 2022 Entries - NXR Southwest Regional

BibFirstLastTeam NameGenderYearCityStateDivisionCustom5000KatelynPhilpot719 EnduranceF11MonumentCOMedium IYELLOW5001OliviaSargent719 EnduranceF12MonumentCOMedium IYELLOW5002ChloeShearer719 EnduranceF10MonumentCOMedium IYELLOW...

Link:nxrsw.runnerspace.com/eprofile.php?eve...

Highland AZ loses their 3-7 from the state meet but they return:
Resendez - 12 - 9:18 3200
Wilford - 12 - 9:39 3200
Witcher - 12 - 9:42 3200
Davis - 10 - 9:59 3200
Rydell - 12 - 10:03 3200

Wouldn’t be surprised if they go back-to-back at state

Wonder how this team will do at NXR

I always cheer for the AZ teams at NXR, but they have traditionally struggled to break the top 10. Only a handful of AZ teams have ever broken top 10. Looks like Highland has some decent potential, but the Southwest is brutally competitive. For comparison, here are AF's returning top 5:

8:34
9:14
9:21
9:21
9:29

Yeah, and Herriman and Lone Peak are looking strong too. Same with Riverton, Niwot, and Valor Christian.
Mountain Vista always seems to be up there at the end of the season, fighting for a spot

Herriman will be talented up front (returns 3 sub-9:20 guys) and insanely deep. 16 guys broke 10 minutes and 9 will be back.

Desert Vista boys team did make nxn in 2017.

Yeah Desert Vista is the only AZ Boys program to crack the top 10 in the past decade. That 2017 team was utterly dominant in the state. They had an incredible showing at nationals subsequently.

But they were very fortunate to have received a 2nd at-large bid at NXR. I've seen a lot of really good 4th place teams at the SW meet that weren't as fortunate. There have been years where I feel like even the 5th and 6th place teams were robbed. The SW is just brutal.

Going back beyond 10 years, a few other AZ teams have cracked the top 10(Corona, Rio Rico, Catalina Foothills), but just DV in the past decade.

In the interim Colorado and Utah have developed a laundry list of outstanding programs. 9 teams from Colorado and 9 from Utah beat a dominant Highland team at NXR in November. It's insane.

I do think holding the AZ state meet one week prior is a bit of a disadvantage, but not a game changer.

And Desert Vista ended up 8th at NXN in 2017, beating some NXR team champions in other regions

We're that good at running y'all. And we won state so.