Cheptegei/Barega/Kiplimo... TERRIBLE MISTAKE --- !!!!

Some didn't like what I said about Ethiopia and Uganda?

They are countries with big population (du to the high birth rate in the latest 40 years) and big talents. But they badly manage their talents.

And I followed what their young did in

EXCELLENT post. It's the prisoner's dilemma.

Yes in terms of winning, what everyone else in the field did was really stupid. But they all wanted to medal themselves. If they push they pace, they likely don't medal. Kejelcha rabbitted Rome and got destroyed by the two Kenyans. So everyone just waited for the kick.

It's in no one's self interest to push the pcae. I think the best bet would be for Kimeli to realize he got lucky to get in the final and just sacrifice himself. But do you really think the world leader is going to do that? If he does that, he likely helps Uganda more so than Kenya. As it ended up, Kenya ended up with silver which isn't bad when you have the WR holder in the race.

Cheptegei's tactics were horriglbe.I've never seen someone run so much in lane 2.

I have followed almost all runners Barega, Kiplimo, Keshelja, Jacob, Edris ... but this Cheptegei entered in my head from the first day.

but this Cheptegei never entered in my head from the first day.

True that.

So in theory the most likely tactic to work on Jakob would be to have someone who can run sub 12:50 pace for 4600m to sacrifice himself. And then just hope it then makes Jakob unable to close under 55 secs..

It's how Farah won all those medals ... Guys just don't have the confidence to take it out hard from the start in the big finals

Everyone knew Mo was going to win the final kick and low and behold ..

I feel a bit stupid reading this thread in hindsight, I was convinced Jakob needed a fast race to win. Obviously I know his 1500m speed, but I wasn't 100% sure he'd have it at the end of a 5k, and that he had too much talent behind him to oukick them all. Everyone saying how obvious it was but I was still genuinely surprised, I feel like a bit of an idiot haha. I did have him on the podium but not as champion.

I think people conflated Jakob's lack of a blistering 150-200 as not having closing speed. Jakob's strength in these tactical 5,000m races is squeezing the life from the field over the final 800-1,000. 58 penultimate lap shakes off the pretenders and a 53 finish slams the door. Look at his final 1K in 100m splits and how he progressively accelerates (15.3, 15.1, 14.8, 14.9, 14.9, 14.1, 13.7, 13.5, 13.2, 13.5 while celebrating).

The difference between Jakob and the field is that a 58 is their 1500m pace, while he is comfortable running 55's. You won't beat him if you let him control the final 1,000 like that.

Yeah my big surprise was not Jakob winning, it was Jakob so easily seizing and holding the lead from 800 out. The Kenyans and Grant handled it OK but I expected the Ethiopians and Cheptegei to do way more to try to take some control of the race.

Cheptegei went after water behind Ingebrigtsen the second time around. He certainly may have been negatively impacted by the heat.

That's because yer man was 25 in that race. He's 30 now.

Use your eyes. Barega is a young-looking guy. I could believe he is anywhere from his listed age to maybe a couple years older. If you want to tell me Muktar Edris is 5-7 years older than listed…sure.

Something's not right with Barega this year. He's getting kicked down by Fisher and others who shouldn't be in his league. He's lost 1-2 seconds off his final lap compared to last year. 2021 Barega would be chasing down the home straight with Jakob in that 5k. I don't know if it's fitness, injury, or just the normal post-Olympics downswing but he's not same athlete this year. He won Paris but was handed his backside by Aregawi at Pre. Even his indoor season was mixed. Yes, he won indoor gold, but he was getting beat in the meets up to that point.

Barega was one my best beats for the future of distances running. Even World Athletics was beating on him when he got the title of the best rising athlete of the year 2019.
I started doubting about him in 2020 when he was getting mixed results (compare this to what he did in the 5000m in 2018, PB 12;43) and especially the defeat against Kiplimo (finnish involved) in some 3000m.

Someone in the comments two years ago said to me that maybe Barega didn't age well. But it could the support and training that didn't help him to progress.

yeah, definitely not the same as last year...wasn't even close to being in contention in either final

Yo-yo the pace between 61 and 67? Jacob would run 64s while giggling hysterically.

Who knows. It's possible he was over-raced this year and lost fitness as it went on. He needs to earn money, but it was a bit much. With this racing schedule, he probably shouldn't have been allowed to double either.

From May 28th through June 18th, he ran three 5,000s and a 10,000. He obviously raced great in Paris on the 18th, running a 12:56 in scorching hot conditions. But it looks to me that most of the Ethiopians were at their best in late May-mid June and looked pretty fried by Worlds. Last year they had more time to recalibrate and ready themselves for Worlds after Ethiopian Trials. They didn't race so many DLs. This year with only about 5 weeks (for those who raced Paris) to regain fitness and some running 2-3 DLs AND an all-out 10,000 at Trials none of them performed well.

I'm all for racing and 5Ks, but having four high-level 5,000s before Worlds on the DL circuit (Pre, Rome, Paris, Oslo) was excessive. At least 2 of them should've been 3000s or 2 miles (for Pre).

Compared to the current strategy they are employing where you could have the gold medal ceremony for Jakob before the race even starts? It doesn't have to be predictable either, surge for 500/600/700m and then back off for a bit before going again. He won't know which moves are serious and if he wants to lay 30 yards off the pace then keep pressing and make him work to catch up.

Watch the 5,000, Jakob immediately moves from his customary last place start once he sees Cheptegei go to the lead. Its not a DL time trial, I don't think he is willing to let guys get too far away from him in a global final, especially when some of them have run 12:35/12:43/12:46 etc.. Especially at it gets later in the race, surging with 1,600-2,000 to go, he will have to respond, maybe less so to an early lap move.