Better yet, get someone to go out and test the equipment. There is no way that equipment can be 100% accurate up to one one thousandth of a second.
I don't think anyone's going to allow that, because this already has lawsuit written all over it. Anyone involved with meet administration will go into deny, deny, deny mode either way.
I had two backup theories that just don't seem likely at all:
1) Athletes suddenly started training reaction time way harder, especially in the last month or so, and were collectively significantly successful in this endeavor. Not likely.
2) Possible PEDs, whether legal or illegal, improving what is possible on the average. Even less likely. Because, everyone would have had to be on board and it would have had to happen all at once, because there's likely a pattern and it is not just one athlete.
What no one seems to be talking about is how quick from set to fire the starter has been in Eugene. It is possible since the hold is consistently much shorter that the reaction times are influenced.
2022 WC Results I see (hopefully formatting holds)
avg max min w 100 m heats 0.141387755 0.229 0.110 w 100 m semi 0.146136364 0.194 0.119 w 100 m final 0.136125 0.150 0.116 110 h heats 0.138631579 0.198 0.114 110 h semi 0.130333333 0.154 0.101 110 h final 0.121571429 0.145 0.099 m 100 m heats 0.131625 0.191 0.104 m 100 m semi 0.131043478 0.146 0.108 m 100 m final 0.1295 0.155 0.104
I hate to break it to you, but no "stats guy" is going to do this analysis in Excel. There are many statistical software packages that could be used to explore this with legitimate tests to compare Eugene vs other championship, and I hope this gets taken on by one of Letsrun's smart guys. Or women - come on, it's 2022!
i wrote code last year to parse results from World Athletics using their undocumented api, it's open source and can be modified slightly to grab reaction times:
Have a shift tonight but I'll try to make a Google sheet with reaction times as far back as there is data for. Another angle to explore would be if athletes in lane 3 (Devon's lane) consistently started faster than usual, as it would indicate a miscalibrated sensor
I hate to break it to you, but no "stats guy" is going to do this analysis in Excel. There are many statistical software packages that could be used to explore this with legitimate tests to compare Eugene vs other championship, and I hope this gets taken on by one of Letsrun's smart guys. Or women - come on, it's 2022!
I hate to break it to you, but no "stats guy" is going to do this analysis in Excel. There are many statistical software packages that could be used to explore this with legitimate tests to compare Eugene vs other championship, and I hope this gets taken on by one of Letsrun's smart guys. Or women - come on, it's 2022!
Do you really think excel can't run a T test...? What super advanced statistical test do you think is so much more legitimate?
I had two backup theories that just don't seem likely at all:
1) Athletes suddenly started training reaction time way harder, especially in the last month or so, and were collectively significantly successful in this endeavor. Not likely.
2) Possible PEDs, whether legal or illegal, improving what is possible on the average. Even less likely. Because, everyone would have had to be on board and it would have had to happen all at once, because there's likely a pattern and it is not just one athlete.
What no one seems to be talking about is how quick from set to fire the starter has been in Eugene. It is possible since the hold is consistently much shorter that the reaction times are influenced.
Interesting thought? Do you think this we'd see RTs improve through the rounds if this were the case? It seems the RTs were virtually identical in the heats vs semis/finals. I'm not a sprinter so correct me if I'm wrong but if the starter was abnormally quick I think we'd see a difference between the first experience with it and repeated exposures. Thoughts?
looking at things another way for 2022 WC - interesting no Women
# < 0.11 w 100 m heats 0 w 100 m semi 0 w 100 m final 0 110 h heats 0 110 h semi 1 110 h final 3 m 100 m heats 4 m 100 m semi 1 m 100 m final 1
Comparing men to womens times for anything is always dumb. Compare like for like.
In 2019 no women under .12 in the 100 m heats. 5 under it this year. And if you look at the number under .13 or .14 from 2019 and 2022 the difference is even clearer.
Rojo, I don't think you know what "stats" is. Why do you need a stats guy to put lists of numbers into a spreadsheet? YOU could do that (if you weren't so lazy)
So now we have an explanation for why there are competing studies giving support for either 0.08 or 0.10 seconds being appropriate limits for reaction time: It depends on the actual set of blocks used in the studies because of differences in sensors used, construction, etc. They might need to do a full statistical study on each set of blocks/reaction timing system to calibrate a different reaction time limit for each specific design. Or, more likely, adjust the sensitivity of the sensors or whatever to equalize the results to the set of blocks used in the study that came up with 0.10 - some kind of certification that different sets of blocks will be the same. In any case, World Athletics screwed up.
Rojo, I don't think you know what "stats" is. Why do you need a stats guy to put lists of numbers into a spreadsheet? YOU could do that (if you weren't so lazy)
Would be good to have a proper statistical analysis done. Someone trained in statistics.
It was mentioned in the podcast that one of the DQs was also in lane 3, Allen's lane. But I don't know if the same blocks are used for the same lanes. Allen also seemed to say to the officials that there was a lot of crowd noise at the start, so if that's a contributing factor you would expect there to be more false starts in lanes 7,8,9 than 1,2,3 over a large enough dataset (closer to crowd)