There's also the distinct possibility that a lot of these high school boys are maxing out in their training too quickly. There was a runner I ran against growing up that ran 3:46/4:04 as a sophomore in high school, but he was apparently already on 80 mpw at that age. He capped out at 3:35/3:55. Certainly, he was a very good runner and was in NCAA finals and even a US Olympic Trial final; however, he never turned into the world beater that it seemed like he was going to be as a sophomore in high school. I have the suspicion that many of these high school boys will follow similar career trajectories.
2. You dont need to be elite in HS to have success in college.
3. Hopefully both of the above.
Correct. At the top of the NCAAs will be a mixture of guys who were crazy good in HS (sub-4:02), and merely really good (1:51-1:53 800/4:03-4:12 PB). But in general, we'll have a good idea of who's going to be a factor in the 1500 at the global level by the age 21 season. Late bloomers are pretty rare.
There's also the distinct possibility that a lot of these high school boys are maxing out in their training too quickly. There was a runner I ran against growing up that ran 3:46/4:04 as a sophomore in high school, but he was apparently already on 80 mpw at that age. He capped out at 3:35/3:55. Certainly, he was a very good runner and was in NCAA finals and even a US Olympic Trial final; however, he never turned into the world beater that it seemed like he was going to be as a sophomore in high school. I have the suspicion that many of these high school boys will follow similar career trajectories.
See is not an example of "maxing out training to quickly" and seemingly at a 3-4:1 scale, the HS studs, now, do produce well during and after NCAA's. I think the conventional wisdom of HS over-training is a waning idea.
See was a stud and running 3:35 came in the middle of a lot of years of surviving as a Pro. Sure he didn't become a world beater or medal-wearer like Centro and didn't find a level of consistency to be at the highest level, but he didn't exactly dissolve and do nothing after HS/NCAA (like many in his position as a HS stud).
FWIW: See was born June of 1986 so he should have graduated in 2004, but he was a year behind. Saying that an [effective] Junior ran 4:06y in 2003 was a big deal but not earth-shattering. Victor Gras also ran 4:06 at AOC's, as a true Junior, who was only two months older than See.