I'd agree with these. I also don't think it would be outrageous for him to run 2:07:50's at Chicago if the weather is good. Leonard Korir ran his debut marathon in 2019 at 2:07:56. 2019 wasn't a peak year for Korir, he was running well but not any better than what Mantz has been doing the past 12 months.
Rupp ran low 2:06 on a less than ideal day, Mantz was just sub 61 in the half in December. I don't think Rupp would have beaten him by more than a minute on that day, so maybe Mantz is within 2 minutes of Rupp next fall. Rupp goes high 2:05, Mantz goes high 2:07 in good weather and no injuries during buildup.
You're talking about a guy with 13:11 5,000m, 27:25 10,000 and 60:55 half PRs. The half PR was in the US championship race, he can likely go faster in a race fully setup to run fast like Houston or better yet Valencia. Everyone knows Mantz is more of a grinder and not a top end speed guy. If he debuted in 2:10-2:11 I think it'd be a disappointment. A comparable guy is Frank Lara, except Mantz is better. Mantz beat Frank by a lot at the aforementioned half marathon race in December, and a month later Frank debuted 2:11 at Houston going out at 2:08 pace, and slowing way down in the middle, and rallying a bit. You should expect better than that from Mantz. So again, I think a 2:10/2:11 would be underperforming at Chicago in good weather. I'd expect 2:08/2:09, with a small chance the stars align and he runs 2:07:50's
Would he choose to debut in a major? Maybe it would be better if his debut was in a lesser race, one with less pressure that he might even win? He’d be forgoing a payday and maybe sacrificing a best time (maybe), but gaining some experience at the distance might be a good strategy. We can hope he’s an easy sub 2:10 runner, but we can’t know until he tries. Half marathon performance is just not that informative. We’ve seen many who can’t handle 42.2 as well despite all of the projections.
- he will 100% debut in a US major. For better or worse, that's where the money is if you're a name. Frank Lara can debut in Houston or Valencia because NYC or Chicago isn't going to pay him anyway. Perhaps better to debut in a smaller, flatter (vs NYC) race where you can control more of the variables and are potentially not running a bunch of it alone but the way the sport is set up economically that isn't going to happen.
- the marathon is a different event, but if you train appropriately it shouldn't be a mystery. Someone of his caliber should go out in 64:30-65:00 (in Chicago or somewhere else flat) and go from there
1.) His NCAA career took place over 4 consecutive years. D1 XC results:
1st 2020 *
Track: also '18, '19, '21
Doesn't seem to have run track in 2020, so only used 3 seasons on elegibility - half of what he's commonly accused of running.
No record I have seen of any NCAA racing in '17 nor '22. Entire collegiate career half a year shorter (more, actually) than those who do 4 consecutive seasons each of XC and T&F both. New Year's 2018 to New Year's 2022 is exactly 4 years. Mantz competed in NCAA only during 4 literal calendar years, as opposed to 4 school years which cover 2 months less than 5 years in time, ie. September of your Freshamn year through June of your Senior year. Hence, his NCAA participation covered more than a year and half less than those who do 4 seasons each of XC and T&F with a redshirt in both.
2.) Dates of birth:
Conner Mantz: Dec. 8, 1996.
Wesley Kiptoo: Unavailable
Athanas Kioko: 1995.
Seems to be the youngest one on the podium in his last (not just the most recent, but truly the last) NCAA race.
Hate all you want; I am no fan and actually root against him. What offends is the myths that:
He is well over 30 and lies about his age;
He ran in the NCAA for 8 years (and may still be doing so).
The perpetuation of this nonsense on this Board is offensive even when directed toward a runner I don't like.
* I believe NCAA is calling this the 2020 Championship in spite of when it literally took place.
BS. If he does Chicago he'll be in the mix. I'd wager a 2:07 finish if it's a 2:05 marathon. I think he's made for the event. He's 15 pounds lighter than Ryan Hall and he's run a 13:11 5000 this year. He'll be the future American record holder.
U kidding? Rupp debuted in 2:11 in a championship race where he wasn't pushed, there were no pacers, course full of twists and turns, on a hot day. Then he went in to win bronze in the Olympics less than a minute behind kipchoge. And Mantz is 20 pounds lighter. You might want to revise
You have no idea what’s he’s capable of until he debuts. You probably thought Kandie or Kamworor would drop a 2:02 no sweat when the ran their first marathons. Nothing Mantz has done so far tells you if he’s capable of 2:07 vs 2:12….
Chris Derrick was fading as a track athlete as he debuted. He hadn't run under 13:19 since 2014. He ran a 27:38 10,000 in Japan in February that year, but never sniffed that sort of time on the roads/track ever again. Mantz on the other hand just ran 13:11 on an 86-degree day to finish 4th at Nationals, and seems to be gaining steam on the track.
I hope they don't teach him to time this it. Let him race. He shows grit so far. But the American male usually show up to qualify for Olympics/World Championships. The talent is there to be challenging. They need to stop looking at their Garmin and determining "I'm going to fast and going to crash". Teach the men to race the marathon. Hopefully Mantz moving up will bring a change to how they're approaching the marathon during majors.
If Mantz is planning on running a fall marathon then he likely won't run at the 2022 Half Marathon Championships (November 13 in Yangzhou, China), right? He won the 2021 USATF edition, and the 2022 edition was watered down (same weekend as a Sound Running track meet) and a little slow.