What tactics will Athing employ at the World Champs? For a start. I don't think she will want Keely on her shoulder with 300m to go, and so, will she blast a really, really fast first lap - that Keely doesn't seem to like, or maybe, do a pretty fast first lap and blast it at the bell or surprise everyone with some unexpected tactic. Not leading, for example. AND, we will have to factor in Mary Morra. She likes to lead. Anyway, this Thursday's 800m in Stockholm, where Mary and Keely are racing should tell us more about their form. Roll on Eugene!
Athing will be helped by the presence of Moraa if they're both in the final. Athing will go out at 56-mid IMO and Moraa will be right on her constituting another athlete that the field will have to get by. Ajee will likely slot in in 3rd. It's an ideal scenario for her with an honest pace that she can kick off. Keely will have to navigate a lot of traffic to challenge at the end.
Athing loves to slow the 3rd 200 and then kick hard the last 150. In this case, you can envision Moraa pulling up to her with 100m to go with Athing using her superior gears to pull away from her. Ajee will surely challenge as well following Moraa's bid and it will then be a test of whether Keely and Raevyn have positioned themselves well enough and have big enough kicks to beat Ajee, Moraa and even Mu. I still believe Mu is on a different level and I actually think it will go Mu-Ajee-Keely in 1:55 flat, 1:55.7, 1:55.8 with Moraa and Raevyn running 1:56 but out of the medals.
A little reading comprehension deficient we are, huh? I never even said anything remotely like "loser" or any of that other B-ll Sh-t. The fact of the matter is Ajee Wilson should be running 1:55.x way more than she does or has. She is 28 , and probably has utilized what I call "your 10 year window" of greatness , she has been competitive since almost 19?
But the fact of the matter is, she has not seen 1:55.61 since 2017, that's 5 years ago. Mu can probably run 1:54.x right now if necessary, other than that? We had 1 other female 800 runner break 1:58.00 at 1:57.96, no offense but we should have 5-7 women at least running that by now, don't you think?
On the men's side, the depth of 800M globally is not great right now, I agree, BUT the WR had come down to an absurd, 1:40.xx no one is running that, not for a while, but even Brazier fairly recently broke the AR. At least be fair, U.S. Women's 800M running has lagged behind most events, and when you get a sub 50.00 type like MU able to go at 800M, the difference most days is pretty big.
Quite frankly and I doubt I am the only one, watching women's 1:57.x 800M races just does not do it for me. I mean shouldn't this event have progressed a bit more in the past 10 years?Ajee Wilson has not bettered 1:55.61 in 5 years? You would think we would have multiple women able to run 1:55.00 by now and we do not. Wilson's days of running 1:55 are behind her women able to run 1:55.00 by now and we do not. Wilson's days of running 1:55 are behind her, yeah she looks great in these incredibly relatively soft fields in an event that has not moved forward at all really. And this is globally as well, MU has run 1:55.04 and is by far, the best in the world? Don't let this last race fool anyone.
A 1:57 championship 800m is like a 1:43-mid men's 800m champs final...It's pretty good even from an athlete who can run 1:41 in an all-out time trial. Ajee Wilson is starting to approach her 1:55-mid form, and it seems that might be coming by Worlds. The event IS moving forward when you take the non-DSD women and doped to the gills Russians out of it. 1:57.66 was 7th place last year in Tokyo. It is easy to imagine 4 women under 1:56.5 in this year's final in Mu, Wilson, Hodgkinson and Moraa. You have to put the Semenya, Russian doper years in context, they've been removed from the fields and this crop of women are running 1:55-1:57 just as much, maybe more. Can you run under 1:54 clean? Maybe not, but it just affirms 1:55 is FAST, and athletes like Janeth Jepkosgei and Ajee Wilson might've been under-appreciated for running 1:55-1:56 vs. DSD athletes and state-sponsored doped Russians.
There is a world of difference between 1.57 and 1.55. As you suggest - 1.55 for women is like1.41x for men. Mu was pushed to her limit to run 1.57.15. That doesn't look like 1.55 form. I wouldn't assume that she has another 2 seconds in her this year - as I wouldn't assume Wilson currently has, even though she, too, has run 1.55. The race at the world's may be a lot closer than many think. It may be enough to run 1.56-57 to win it - whoever does, although Mu remains the favorite.
I would beg to differ that Mu's 400 speed must be the decisive factor in the women's 800. As we have seen in the men's event, it isn't always the faster athletes - such as the 44-45 runners - who win over the 800. The event still requires strength and endurance - and the latter is not Mu's strong point (as her mile shows). I think Hodgkinson is currently better than Wilson and in a finish like we have just seen could well have taken Mu.
A little reading comprehension deficient we are, huh? I never even said anything remotely like "loser" or any of that other B-ll Sh-t. The fact of the matter is Ajee Wilson should be running 1:55.x way more than she does or has. She is 28 , and probably has utilized what I call "your 10 year window" of greatness , she has been competitive since almost 19?
But the fact of the matter is, she has not seen 1:55.61 since 2017, that's 5 years ago. Mu can probably run 1:54.x right now if necessary, other than that? We had 1 other female 800 runner break 1:58.00 at 1:57.96, no offense but we should have 5-7 women at least running that by now, don't you think?
You're just holding the USA and Ajee to crazy standards. Ajee is a huge talent and generational 800m runner, and she ran 1:55.6 in Monaco on that lightning fast track in the race of her career (with DSD women pushing her every step) in her breakout season of 2017. She ran great in 2018-19 with plenty of 1:56-7s and the real blemish being an off day in the Doha final. With DSD women gone in 2019 , she didn't blast super-fast times but she had a near undefeated season. 2020 was a pandemic and 2021 she was hurt.
It requires a lot to hit your best 800m time-wise (competition, pacemaking) unless you are so good like Athing Mu that you can gun-to-tape or sit on a pacemaker going lightning fast and deliver time after time. The US has gotten increasingly strong to the point that there're a half dozen women under 1:58.5 domestically just at our Championships. Running sub-1:58 requires huge talent and the right race, I'm not sure why you think that the expectation is that the likes of Nia Akins, Allie Wilson or Sage Hurta should be doing it. You might also have forgotten Kate Grace who was running 1:57s routinely last year.
There is a world of difference between 1.57 and 1.55. As you suggest - 1.55 for women is like1.41x for men. Mu was pushed to her limit to run 1.57.15. That doesn't look like 1.55 form. I wouldn't assume that she has another 2 seconds in her this year - as I wouldn't assume Wilson currently has, even though she, too, has run 1.55. The race at the world's may be a lot closer than many think. It may be enough to run 1.56-57 to win it - whoever does, although Mu remains the favorite.
A few things to factor in: 1) Mu's coming off COVID, and missed some training time. I do think she will have some fitness gains in the next few weeks 2) Mu ran a pretty hard semi...I think combined with point #1 and she had travel after doing the Rome DL. I don't think this was a perfect spot in the final for her, and next month she will be better positioned to run fast. 3) Ajee closed in 29.0 for the last 200 here. That is NOT the ideal way to run a fast 800m. In a better paced race, she can run faster than the 1:57.1. She might get that in Oregon with Mu going harder the 3rd 200 and really dropping the hammer the last 200.
With 200 to go I genuinely thought Mu was going to get beaten. If you watch the race closely she tries to extend down the back straight but just couldn't and the field really compressed behind her. Ajee in particular was short-stepping from 250 to 150 to go.
Honestly, I think if she had attacked at this point and really tried to get a yard or two on Mu she would have won. What actually happened was in leaving it to the final 80m it allowed Mu to only have to dig deep for that final 30-40m which she was able to do and (super impressively btw) come back and win. If there had been pressure on her the entire home straight the result is different.
Either way it was a great race and yes we do forget that in terms of lifetime bests Ajee is only half a second slower. It will be interesting to see how Mu handles this scare - it's really the first time in her career that she's been put under this sort of pressure and it will have given a lot of her biggest competitors a boost (none more so than Wilson) to have seen her appear beatable out there.
Womens 800m looks like it might be one of the best races of the champs.
I would beg to differ that Mu's 400 speed must be the decisive factor in the women's 800. As we have seen in the men's event, it isn't always the faster athletes - such as the 44-45 runners - who win over the 800. The event still requires strength and endurance - and the latter is not Mu's strong point (as her mile shows). I think Hodgkinson is currently better than Wilson and in a finish like we have just seen could well have taken Mu.
Yes, yesterday Hodgkinson might have been able to beat Mu.
But people keep forgetting that Mu had Covid just 5 weeks ago, so she is not at her best. Now that she is back to being and training normally, she will only get better from here.
Either way it was a great race and yes we do forget that in terms of lifetime bests Ajee is only half a second slower.
Don't look at someone's PR. Look at their 5 fastest times over the past 24 months. That will be a much better predictor of what they can run this year.
There are a number of runners whose 800 PR is significantly better than their second best time, which means that their PR is an anomaly. Yes, Ajee's PR is 1:55.61, but her second fastest time ever is only 1:56.45.
And there are a number of runners who ran a really fast time a few years ago, but they can no longer do that now. Ajee hasn't broken 1:57 since 2018. That's FOUR years ago.
Yes, Athing, Keely, and Ajee have all run 1:55 at some point in their careers. But when you look at Ajee's, Keely's, and Athing's top 5 times over the past 24 months, that tells a very different story. Out of those 3 women, Athing is clearly the best, Keely is clearly second, and Ajee isn't as close to them as some people would like to imagine she is.
The only reason Ajee was close to Athing yesterday was because Athing had Covid only a month ago. Now that Athing has resumed her normal training, the gap between Athing and Ajee will grow over the rest of this summer.
What tactics will Athing employ at the World Champs? For a start. I don't think she will want Keely on her shoulder with 300m to go, and so, will she blast a really, really fast first lap - that Keely doesn't seem to like, or maybe, do a pretty fast first lap and blast it at the bell or surprise everyone with some unexpected tactic. Not leading, for example. AND, we will have to factor in Mary Morra. She likes to lead. Anyway, this Thursday's 800m in Stockholm, where Mary and Keely are racing should tell us more about their form. Roll on Eugene!
Athing will be helped by the presence of Moraa if they're both in the final. Athing will go out at 56-mid IMO and Moraa will be right on her constituting another athlete that the field will have to get by. Ajee will likely slot in in 3rd. It's an ideal scenario for her with an honest pace that she can kick off. Keely will have to navigate a lot of traffic to challenge at the end.
Athing loves to slow the 3rd 200 and then kick hard the last 150. In this case, you can envision Moraa pulling up to her with 100m to go with Athing using her superior gears to pull away from her. Ajee will surely challenge as well following Moraa's bid and it will then be a test of whether Keely and Raevyn have positioned themselves well enough and have big enough kicks to beat Ajee, Moraa and even Mu. I still believe Mu is on a different level and I actually think it will go Mu-Ajee-Keely in 1:55 flat, 1:55.7, 1:55.8 with Moraa and Raevyn running 1:56 but out of the medals.
Keely has already beaten Ajee (and Raevyn) this summer, why should this reverse now?
Keely has already beaten Ajee (and Raevyn) this summer, why should this reverse now?
Because Ajee spotted Keely 10 meters at Pre, and won't do that again. She was running even and slightly gaining in that race and she is getting better. If she returns to running aggressively, Keely is not going to find it as easy to beat her.
Since January 2021, here is how many times each woman has run under 1:58.
7 - Athing
6 - Keely
2 - Ajee
And keep in mind that the only reason that Athing has "only" seven times under 1:58 is that she focused on the 400 both indoor and outdoor during college, and she didn't run that many 800's until after outdoor NCAA nationals.
So I'm not sure why some of you think that Ajee has a good chance at beating either one of them at Worlds.
Ajee is an experienced racer, so anything is possible. But the odds are not in Ajee's favor.
I would beg to differ that Mu's 400 speed must be the decisive factor in the women's 800. As we have seen in the men's event, it isn't always the faster athletes - such as the 44-45 runners - who win over the 800. The event still requires strength and endurance - and the latter is not Mu's strong point (as her mile shows). I think Hodgkinson is currently better than Wilson and in a finish like we have just seen could well have taken Mu.
????????
Keely doesn't race 1500/Mile and basically everything public about her training has indicated she's low mileage.
Does not ever running the mile indicate being a stronger runner than Ajee's 4:05/4:33? Or Raevyn's 4:12/4:29? How about Reekie's 4:02/4:27 and measly 55 400m PR?
Feel free to believe that strength > speed for the 800, but realize that you're not making the case for who you think you are.
Well, what can we definitely say - at this point - about the form of the top 800m women. 1) Athing. Well, she doesn't seem as sharp as this time last year. Her 400m best is way down on last year. 2 ) Keely. Well. she is definitely winning the top races this year. For example, she was well beaten in a number of Diamond League races last year and only finished first in one. The final one of the season. 3 ) Ajee. She's having her best year for quite a while. 4 ) Mary Morra. Too soon to say, although this coming Stockholm clash with Keely should tell us a lot. 5) Others. Last year, certain 800m runners peaked far too early. Almanza and Goule, for example. Maybe this year, they'll time thing right.