I know Micah Dickran personally and have ran races with him and he is confirmed going to Newbury Park. He’s ran 2:01 800m and 4:17 1500m in his first time running the event.
How good can this team do in 2023? They return: Dev Doshi - 9:02 in the 3200 Nathan Porter - 9:52 in the 3200 (indoors) Jonah Sloan - 10:17 in the 3200 Noah Sloan (incoming frosh) - 10:11 in the 3200 Gabriel Bernardino (incoming frosh) - 10:37 in the 3200 Micah Dickran (incoming frosh who is MAYBE going to Newbury Park) - 10:37 in the 3200 Adrian Cantu (will be a freshman in 2023) - 10:34 in the 3200 as a 7th Grader Nathaniel Schohn - 10:47 in the 3200 Arnav Shetty - 10:52 in the 3200 Jack Watson - 4:39 in the 1600
Add junior transfer Brandon Guevara (10:02/4:35 to this list)
How good can this team do in 2023? They return: Dev Doshi - 9:02 in the 3200 Nathan Porter - 9:52 in the 3200 (indoors) Jonah Sloan - 10:17 in the 3200 Noah Sloan (incoming frosh) - 10:11 in the 3200 Gabriel Bernardino (incoming frosh) - 10:37 in the 3200 Micah Dickran (incoming frosh who is MAYBE going to Newbury Park) - 10:37 in the 3200 Adrian Cantu (will be a freshman in 2023) - 10:34 in the 3200 as a 7th Grader Nathaniel Schohn - 10:47 in the 3200 Arnav Shetty - 10:52 in the 3200 Jack Watson - 4:39 in the 1600
Add junior transfer Brandon Guevara (10:02/4:35 to this list)
And Shetty ran a 4:35 last spring and according to an article he will surprised a lot of people this year
Likely 2023 they will be middle of pack NXN but 2024 certainly top 3 and 2025 should win. Yay for recruiting.
The prospects of NP winning nationals in 2025 are decreasing. at Woodbridge there were teams that had 2 freshmen better than Newbury Park’s top freshman. One thing that will increase the chances of those teams beating np in 2025 is that those freshmen will have more experience of being in the top 7 that the np freshmen do.
ventura and Trabuco hills are much lower than expected. Maybe they haven’t run their full varsity in the 3 mile yet?
Why does Cali run 3 miles? It seems like an excuse to post 3 miles times and pass them off as 5k times, plus the 3 miles often seem short, like an extra 55 secs instead of 30 secs (conversion) compared to the same athlete's 5k.
No chance they make ito NXN in 2023 unless this year’s incoming class is the next coming of the Youngs and Sahlmans, which is very unlikely.
And what teams do you think will beat Newbury Park in 2023?
ventura for certain.
Great Oak can as well. They return a 9:50 average for 2024.
Trabuco Hills can as well. They return a 9:48 average.
mira Costa can as well. They return a 9:52 3200 average. 3 of those guys were in the top 7 for a team that got second in the d2 state race.
So yeah, this is already enough teams to keep Newbury Park from finishing top 4 in the state merge.
I have to say that Dana Hills might have a shot to qualify next year too, at least through an at-large. Great program/well-coached. Their 1-4 this year are nonseniors. There is also a freshman on that team that is knocking on the door to make varsity too
Likely 2023 they will be middle of pack NXN but 2024 certainly top 3 and 2025 should win. Yay for recruiting.
The prospects of NP winning nationals in 2025 are decreasing. at Woodbridge there were teams that had 2 freshmen better than Newbury Park’s top freshman. One thing that will increase the chances of those teams beating np in 2025 is that those freshmen will have more experience of being in the top 7 that the np freshmen do.
Trying to predict the progression of 8th grade/freshman is nuts. We had a kid run 445 as a freshman and 4:37 as a senior. Another than 5:20 as a freshman and then 15:40 as a senior. How puberty and training interact is hard to say. Any of those 4:40/10min guys could be 420/910 guys in a year. Or they could stall at 430/930..
The prospects of NP winning nationals in 2025 are decreasing. at Woodbridge there were teams that had 2 freshmen better than Newbury Park’s top freshman. One thing that will increase the chances of those teams beating np in 2025 is that those freshmen will have more experience of being in the top 7 that the np freshmen do.
Trying to predict the progression of 8th grade/freshman is nuts. We had a kid run 445 as a freshman and 4:37 as a senior. Another than 5:20 as a freshman and then 15:40 as a senior. How puberty and training interact is hard to say. Any of those 4:40/10min guys could be 420/910 guys in a year. Or they could stall at 430/930..
What I’m saying is, this freshman class at NP was similar during 8th grade track to how the class of 2023 was in 8th grade track. And yet their freshman times are much slower than class 2023’s freshman times were. I think that the loss of Sean has to do with this. I read somewhere that Sean still writes the trainings just so NPHS can win NXN. Tanya Brosnan and Steve Hawkins are interim coaches. Next year the Brosnans will have nothing to do with NPXC at all. It will be a completely different coach. This is another reason why this could be the last year NPHS boys team even goes to NXN. But then again, unless they recruit some more studs.
Don't think they stand a chance against other teams in California. Great Oak, Ventura, San Clemente, so much potential. Newbury will just be barely squeezing by, but that's okay, they've had their time. Now time for someone else to shine
Don't think they stand a chance against other teams in California. Great Oak, Ventura, San Clemente, so much potential. Newbury will just be barely squeezing by, but that's okay, they've had their time. Now time for someone else to shine
Definitely not Great Oak. Neither Great Oak not Newbury Park will qualify. Great Oak loses as many seniors as Newbury Park
You also have take a look at Trabuco Hills. They are real good this year and return 5 of their top 6.
Dana Hills returns 5 guys which is rare for this team. They also always seem to come together at the end of the season.
Another boys team that people will be surprised about next year if Buchanan. Yes they do lose at least 3 seniors but they return 5 guys under 16:30.
Clovis will be in the conversation IF they can find a good 4 and 5. They return a solid 2-4
Newbury Park senior Aaron Sahlman won the boys championship at Nike Cross Nationals -- his first high school victory in cross country -- and led his team to the national title.