National XC 2022 predictions

trundzer wrote:

NXR top 2 Boys team predictions:
South -
1. Jesuit - returns their whole team. They can do something special at nationals based on their 3200 times.
2. Southlake Carroll - returns their 1-6 and placed 2nd at NXR SE
Watchlist - Woodlands, Atascocita

Heartland -
1. Wayzata - returns 5 guys under 16
2. Dowling Catholic - returns 5 guys under 16:34
Watchlist - Millard West (they will get second if they can find a #5. With their 5th returner at 18:25, it’s hard to predict them to find one) / Iowa City

Northeast -
1. Union Catholic - placed 4th at nationals and returns 5 guys and another transfer that will be scoring
2. CBA - a predominantly dominant team in the NE and returns 6 guys.
Watchlist: Haddonfield Memorial / Bishop Hendricken / Cherokee / Hall High / Coe Brown Academy

California:
1. Newbury Park - returns 5 sub-15 guys.
2. Grenada - returns 4 guys under 9:28, and their #2 runner from CC
Watchlist: Great Oak

Southwest:
1. Valor Christian - placed 9th and returns 4 scorers. There’s a bunch of freshmen looking to close the gap.
2. Niwot - returns 5 sub-16 guys
Watchlist: Mountain View, Skyridge, Riverton, Corner Canyon, Mountain Vista (losing lots of seniors but they always reload), Cherokee Trail, American Fork (loses 5 seniors but always seems to reload like crazy)

Southeast:
1. Belen Jesuit Prep - a Perronial powerhouse that only loses 2 guys
2. McCallie - returns 5 guys under 16:18
Watchlist: Bolles / Brentwood / University High

Midwest:
1. Carmel - returns 5 guys under 9:49
2. Center Grove - returns 4 guys under 16:18, and also another 4:29 guy.
Watchlist: Liberty North, Mason, Hinsdale Central, Brebeuf Jesuit Prep (if they find a 5th. It will be interesting if they get one. It’s not a big school) / Plainfield / Zionsville Community / Columbus North

Northwest:
1. Jesuit - got 3rd at nattys last year and returns 4 guys from that varsity squad. I think they’ll find a 5th based on their depth.
2. Bishop Blanchet - returns a 15:27 average
Watchlist: Lincoln, Franklin, Crater, Boise Senior, Rocky Mountain

New York:
1. Corning - placed 2nd at regions but returns their 2-6
2. St Anthony’s - placed 10th at feds but returns 6 varsity guys
Watchlist: FM / Burnt Hills / Saratoga Springs

Girls top 2 NXR predictions
California:
1. Buchanan - placed second at nations / returns all scorers
2. Great Oak - returns the whole varsity team and an 18:26 average
Watchlist: Newbury Park / Oak Ridge / JSerra (2 sub-4:50 1500 freshmen are going there)

Heartland -
1. Wayzata - placed 5th at NXR, returns everyone, and adds Abbey Nechanicky, who missed out on NXR
2. Olathe West - placed 4th at NXR / returns everyone
Watchlist: St Paul Highland Park / Minnetonka

South -
1. Southlake Carroll - won NXR last year and returns 6 girls
2. Lucas Lovejoy - placed 19th at nationals and returns 5 girls
Watchlist: Flower Mound, Venom

Southeast:
1. Cuthbertson - placed 14th at nationals and returns all scorers
2. Morgantown - returns a 10:59 average in the 3200
Watchlist: Assumption / West Springfield / Marietta / Brentwood / Mountain Brook / Howard / Cardinal Gibbons

Southwest:
1. Niwot - won nationals and returns 5 of their top 8
2. Araprahoe - placed 4th and returns 6 girls
Watchlist: Valor Christian, Mountain Vista, Desert Vista

Midwest:
1. York - got 4th at RunningLane and returns 5 of their top 6.
2. Columbus North - returns an 18:14 average
Watchlist: Naperville North / Noblesville

Northwest:
1. Jesuit - best returning team in OR
2. Summit - second best returning team in OR
Watchlist: Tahoma / Bishop Blanchet

New York:
1. Saratoga Springs - best team in the nation. What else can I say
2. FM - second at feds / returns 5 girls

Northeast - I honestly think some random teams will get top 2 from here. Not a very strong region. Wouldn’t be surprised if I get this one wrong.
1. Cherokee - won NXR / returns 5 of their top 6
2. Haddonfield Memorial - placed 3rd at regionals and returns 4 scorers
Watchlist: Colts Neck / Union Catholic / North Allegheny

trundzer wrote:

Explanations on boys NXN predictions:

1. Newbury Park CA - had 5 guys under 15 minutes at RunningLane, and returns 5 guys. Plus Aaron Cantu.
2. Jesuit LA - didn’t graduate anyone at all, and returns 5 guys under 9:22.
3. Granada CA - returns 4 guys under 9:28, and their #2 runner from CC
4. Jesuit OR - placed 3rd last year and returns 4 varsity guys. Should be able to find a 5th over the summer. They always seem to have someone come out of nowhere. Always has good depth.
5. Union Catholic - got 4th last year. Loses Brosnan and another top guy, but returns 3 scorers, a transfer who ran a 9:28, and an incoming sophomore who ran a 9:31. So they return 5 guys under 9:31.
6. Great Oak CA. Even with a new coach, they are still doing really well. They lose their 2-4 but track season has shown that they have guys that will be filling in for those who have graduated.
7. Corner Canyon UT. Was very close to winning NXN in 2019 (last time NXN happened). Returns 4 varsity guys. But needs a #5 to step up. They always seem to have someone come out of nowhere though.
8. Niwot CO. A luxurious program that only loses 3 guys, and returns 4 solid seniors and some sophomores that will help this team.
9. Cherokee Trail CO. The Southwest region always deserves an at-large bid. Cherokee Trail Returns their whole squad and will be lead by potential All-American Hunter Strand.
10. Bishop Blanchet WA. Returns most of their squad and looking to be lead by 2 potential all-Americans - Schneider and Recupero. They also have a good #3 in Drew Oliver.
11. Crater OR. Losing only one senior from varsity. Should be good enough to get an at-large. Another team that will be lead by 2 potential all-Americans - Gorze and Tostenson.
12. Southlake Carroll TX. Won state and almost won NXR, falling to Grapevine whose #5 had an off race. This is one of the deepest programs in the country, and there will be stiff competitions for the top 7 spots.
13. CBA NJ. A storied program that returns all but 1 runner.
14. Haddonfield Memorial NJ. Should be able to get an at-large bid. They had a 9:35 average in the 3200.
15. Carmel IN. Returns 4 guys from their top 7. Solid program that always finds depth.
16. Wayzata MN. Returns 5 guys under 16 minutes and another guy who ran a 16:13 at NXR. This large program always finds depth.
17. Belen Jesuit Prep FL. Returns 6 guys off the squad that got 5th place at NXR.
18. University High WV. Returns a 9:36 3200 average.
19. Plainfield South IL. Placed ninth at NXR last year and returns all scorers. Brebeuf Jesuit Prep needs a solid #5 to qualify.
20. Corning NY. Returns 5 guys from last years team. They have qualified many times. They’re in the New York region after all.
21. Dowling Catholic IA. Got 9th at NXR last year. Returns 5 of their top 6. Doesn’t say much about NXN though. Millard West needs a 5th runner to qualify again and be as good as last year.
22. St Anthony’s NY. Returns lots of depth and a 4:32 average. Does not say a lot about NXN though.