National XC 2022 predictions

Probably because these are XC rankings and so far their national level success has been on the track, not XC.

Jesuit CA is another team to watch too. Although they will struggle to qualify for NXN. In 2019 they were the top team in the merge that didn’t make NXN.
They return:
9:12 / 4:12 incoming senior
9:19 / 4:25 incoming senior (who scored for Jesuit in 2019)
9:39 / 4:24 incoming junior
9:54 (incoming sophomore, and many people take big jumps from freshman to sophomore year)
They need to find a #5.

In 2019 and 2020 Jesuit CA had some great runners, not so much now. One person here and there does not make a winning team. They went downhill after Strangio and Salcedo graduated.

Tully ratings

1. Lex Young
2. Leo Young
3. Aaron Sahlman
4. Tyrone Gorze
5. Kole Mathison

1. Ellie Shea
2. Kate Peters
3. Tatum David
4. Sadie Engelhardt
5. Karrie Baloga

I was really surprised when someone in that video picked Cheyenne Mountain as one of the top teams in the nation. They lost 6 guys. Yes they return Kaden Leavings, but they will need 4 more guys to step up like crazy to be one of the top teams in the nation again. One person is not enough to bring a team to the top. At this point they don’t seem like a top 5 team in the Southwest.

As for the Southlake Carroll pick…I would say ehhh.

They only got 21st. They return everyone, but so many other teams that finished way ahead of them return 5 guys. They’re on the cusp of being in the top 10 imo.

I wouldn’t be surprised if both Jesuit teams (OR and LA) end up getting in the top 3 though.

And Great Oak challenging Newbury Park?

Well…….not this year but I think this will happen next year though. In fact, Great Oak has a better junior-and-under squad than NP and those underclassmen are better than the freshmen coming into Newbury Park. So I think Great Oak will actually beat them in 2023.

That mention of Cheyenne Mountain was clearly a mistake. Deep team - thought I heard they had the most sub 5 guys in state history this spring - but it's much too small of a school to consistently compete at that high of level.

And Cory and Olivia really awkwardly stumbled through the Jesuit(s) conversation. Ouch.

IMO the dyestat people seem genuinely more knowledgeable about high school xc than the milesplit crew.

Dyestat isn’t the best either. I remember they picked Corner Canyon as #2 in the SW in the preseason. That was totally a mistake since the lost 2 solid senior classes in a row. They even have the “during the season” weekly rankings wrong.

Bill Meylan’s preseason rankings are the best tbh

Jimmy Wischusen is a very bold pick to be one of the top guys this year.

I don’t even think he will win NXR NE this year. I think it will be Devan Kipyego.

This year it will be like NXN 2019 where 1-10 are seniors.

Tullyrunners has Aidan Cox at #8 but realistically based on his track times, he should not be up there even though he had a great race at RunningLane.

Meylan usually gets it right. The biggest issue with rankings is that there’s always going to be some bias/personal judgment. This is where the MileSplit people SUCK. They are TERRIBLE at judging which teams will improve, and they are also terrible at judging what the head-to-head looks like between two teams across the country. Speed ratings make it easy to do that, but even that doesn’t paint the full picture. This is why Bill always ranks FM so high, because he believes they will find a way to be competitive, regardless of what they’re returning (and they usually do). It’s a hard thing to get right, but the biggest thing I’ve noticed over the years of following high school xc is to always bet on CROSS teams. It’s easy to see flashy 3200 times and be impressed, as well as fast 5k PRs in xc. But first look at the teams that are competitive in the championship meets, and see what they’re returning. Then see which teams showed significant improvement in track, relative to their own previous times. Teams with proven championship ability and improvement in the track seasons are always going to be at the top, even if they don’t necessarily rank as high by PRs.

I actually think that FM boys team tied with Burnt Hills at 3rd and 4th is accurate on Meylan’s NY rankings. Both teams seem pretty even to me.

As far as St A at #2, the track times they had this season make this team very deep. So if those track times translate to the grass, they will be getting second. If they don’t, it will be either FM or Burnt Hills getting second.

Meylan has Saratoga's boys way under-rated.

Most definitely. They should be top 5 in NY at this point. I don’t think he emphasises track times very much. He would rather see what happens on the XC course. That 9:44 guy was speed rated really low because he did not do as well in CC as well as he did in track.
He sometimes doesn’t realize that a runner does not do very well in the fall but does really well the next spring in the 3200 has likely made improvements.
They return the strong top 3.

2 sub-16:30 5K runners, and another 9:44 incoming sophomore who will likely be up with them too.
Next 4 varsity spots will be up for grabs.

They also return a lot of young talent and this is looking to be well set up for fall 2023. They will potentially go to NXN that year.

Mason Talarico (12) - 16:23 5K / 9:24 3200
Jacob Bernd (11) - 16:21 5K
Darren Pasek (10) - 9:44 in the 3200

Caleb Yuhasz (12) - 10:12 3200
Thomas Isenovaki (9) - 10:14 3200
Luke Dacey (11) - 10:16 3200
Owen Blaidsell (10) - 4:46 in the 1600
Owen Mansfield (11) - was the #4 guy at XC sections last season.
Leydon Hemsworth (12) - 10:26 3200

Pretty sure he had Mansfield’s and Bernd’s grades on Tully runners wrong as well.

Tully runners rankings

Boys teams:

Girls teams

Quick notes on the teams full of non seniors.
Here is what the following top 30 teams return in 2023:
Jesuit LA 2023 returners speed ratings:
178,174,173,171.
They have a whole another year to find a number 5.
They returned everyone from last year and I’m surprised how many they return the year after this.
Union Catholic NJ-
191,172?,9:31,4:31,4:36
CBA
173,172,172,9:34,4:27
American Fork:
191,177,173, and 2 more who ran a 16:48 and a 17:07 at Steel Days
Wayzata:
172,169,164,160,151 (I’m sure they will find a better #5).
Belen Jesuit Prep:
185,171,9:52,9:56,10:00
Crater:
181,165,164,9:10 in the 3k,4:08 in the 1500
Valor Christian:
178,171,10:01,4:32,4:47 (4 incoming sophs. Also heard they have a really good 9th grader coming in).
Niwot (I know they got lots of seniors but also lots of good incoming sophs):
162,157,156, 10:15, 10:29. They are more good incoming sophs too, and also an incoming 9th grader Culpepper may possibly go here.
San Clemente:
175,156,151,148, 10:04 and 10:09 in the 3200.
Plainfield South:
178,168,163. Needs 2 more.
Ventura has a shot at winning too in 2023.
There are others not on Meylan’s top 30 that do as well.

(Not saying that all of the teams on the above list have a shot of winning in 2023).

And Riverton returns a lot for 2023:
177
166
153
9:42
10:11
4:49

2023 is simply too far in the future to be worried about. Many of the teams that don't appear to have strong soph/junior classes will have new runners emerge over the next year. Even one summer can be enough for a team to become nationally competitive out of the blue, all it takes is one or two runners transferring in, switching sports, or hitting a growth spurt.