1. Newbury Park CA - had 5 guys under 15 minutes at RunningLane, and returns 5 guys. Plus Aaron Cantu. 2. Jesuit LA - didn’t graduate anyone at all, and returns 5 guys under 9:22. 3. Granada CA - returns 4 guys under 9:28, and their #2 runner from CC 4. Jesuit OR - placed 3rd last year and returns 4 varsity guys. Should be able to find a 5th over the summer. They always seem to have someone come out of nowhere. Always has good depth. 5. Union Catholic - got 4th last year. Loses Brosnan and another top guy, but returns 3 scorers, a transfer who ran a 9:28, and an incoming sophomore who ran a 9:31. So they return 5 guys under 9:31. 6. Great Oak CA. Even with a new coach, they are still doing really well. They lose their 2-4 but track season has shown that they have guys that will be filling in for those who have graduated. 7. Corner Canyon UT. Was very close to winning NXN in 2019 (last time NXN happened). Returns 4 varsity guys. But needs a #5 to step up. They always seem to have someone come out of nowhere though. 8. Niwot CO. A luxurious program that only loses 3 guys, and returns 4 solid seniors and some sophomores that will help this team. 9. Cherokee Trail CO. The Southwest region always deserves an at-large bid. Cherokee Trail Returns their whole squad and will be lead by potential All-American Hunter Strand. 10. Bishop Blanchet WA. Returns most of their squad and looking to be lead by 2 potential all-Americans - Schneider and Recupero. They also have a good #3 in Drew Oliver. 11. Crater OR. Losing only one senior from varsity. Should be good enough to get an at-large. Another team that will be lead by 2 potential all-Americans - Gorze and Tostenson. 12. Southlake Carroll TX. Won state and almost won NXR, falling to Grapevine whose #5 had an off race. This is one of the deepest programs in the country, and there will be stiff competitions for the top 7 spots. 13. CBA NJ. A storied program that returns all but 1 runner. 14. Haddonfield Memorial NJ. Should be able to get an at-large bid. They had a 9:35 average in the 3200. 15. Carmel IN. Returns 4 guys from their top 7. Solid program that always finds depth. 16. Wayzata MN. Returns 5 guys under 16 minutes and another guy who ran a 16:13 at NXR. This large program always finds depth. 17. Belen Jesuit Prep FL. Returns 6 guys off the squad that got 5th place at NXR. 18. University High WV. Returns a 9:36 3200 average. 19. Plainfield South IL. Placed ninth at NXR last year and returns all scorers. Brebeuf Jesuit Prep needs a solid #5 to qualify. 20. Corning NY. Returns 5 guys from last years team. They have qualified many times. They’re in the New York region after all. 21. Dowling Catholic IA. Got 9th at NXR last year. Returns 5 of their top 6. Doesn’t say much about NXN though. Millard West needs a 5th runner to qualify again and be as good as last year. 22. St Anthony’s NY. Returns lots of depth and a 4:32 average. Does not say a lot about NXN though.
Corner Canyon is losing their #3, Carter Cutting. I think Mountain View (UT) is going to make it from the SW instead, not sure where they would place here though. Also do you think SW has a chance to send 4 teams this year? They seem to have a lot of depth, but I haven't looked into other regions much.
Just saw your previous response about SW sending 2 at-large bids, who is your other pick? I saw you mentioning AF, but personally my bets are on Riverton. With returning 4 under 16, their 5th looks to be behind a decent amount, but he had a good track season, running 9:42 for 3200 at altitude as a sophomore, and I think they could make some waves this year.
Just saw your previous response about SW sending 2 at-large bids, who is your other pick? I saw you mentioning AF, but personally my bets are on Riverton. With returning 4 under 16, their 5th looks to be behind a decent amount, but he had a good track season, running 9:42 for 3200 at altitude as a sophomore, and I think they could make some waves this year.
It is actually on the girls side where I think SW will send 2 at large teams. Not the boys. Sorry for the confusion.
Just saw your previous response about SW sending 2 at-large bids, who is your other pick? I saw you mentioning AF, but personally my bets are on Riverton. With returning 4 under 16, their 5th looks to be behind a decent amount, but he had a good track season, running 9:42 for 3200 at altitude as a sophomore, and I think they could make some waves this year.
It is actually on the girls side where I think SW will send 2 at large teams. Not the boys. Sorry for the confusion.
On the girls side there are the teams that I think will go to NXN-
Niwot CO Araprahoe CO Valor Christian CO Springville UT
Just saw your previous response about SW sending 2 at-large bids, who is your other pick? I saw you mentioning AF, but personally my bets are on Riverton. With returning 4 under 16, their 5th looks to be behind a decent amount, but he had a good track season, running 9:42 for 3200 at altitude as a sophomore, and I think they could make some waves this year.
It is actually on the girls side where I think SW will send 2 at large teams. Not the boys. Sorry for the confusion.
On the girls side there are the teams that I think will go to NXN-
Niwot CO Araprahoe CO Valor Christian CO Springville UT
Valor on this list surprises me. I was at the state track meet and their girls distance team seemed kind of small. Do you know who is in their top 5?
Returning 5K PRs:
3 Valor Christian High School (CO) 170 1) Brooke Wilson 16:50.75 2 2) Keeghan Edwards 16:58.16 5 3) Taylor Rorick 18:29.90 46 4) Jordan Blankenship 18:50.01 58 5) Bella Vogl 18:50.89 59
They didn’t lose anyone from their top 5.
returning 3200 times 3 Valor Christian High School (CO) 86 1) Brooke Wilson 10:22.58 1 2) Keeghan Edwards 10:33.72 3 3) Taylor Rorick 11:10.75 13 4) Caroline Dennis 11:52.56 34 5) Alex Lancaster 11:53.04 35
Boys top 5 Teams: 1. Newbury Park CA - had 5 guys under 15 minutes at RunningLane, and returns 5 guys! 2. Jesuit LA - didn’t graduate anyone at all, and returns 5 guys under 9:22. 3. Grenada CA - returns 4 guys under 9:28, and their #2 runner from CC 4. Jesuit OR - placed 3rd last year and returns 4 varsity guys. Should be able to find a 5th over the summer. They always seem to have someone come out of nowhere. Always has good depth. 5. Valor Christian CO - returns 4 of their top 5, and plus some more freshmen, one of which I’m sure will step up over the summer.
One of the potential candidates to close the 4-5 gap for Jesuit would be Eric Schumacher. He had older siblings that lead the team their junior years. In fact, one of the Schumachers went from JV to Jesuit’s #3 guy in one year. Eric ran a 4:15 in the 1500. The fastest 1500 time by a Jesuit nonsenior JV runner.
But they also have an incoming soph who ran a 4:18 in the 1500 as a freshman. He was the fastest freshman at Jesuit. Many people make really big jumps from freshman to sophomore year.
But then they also have an incoming senior who had the fastest 5K time on the Jesuit JV team and also ran a 4:18 in the 1500 and will probably do his best to finish his HS career on varsity.
They could find not just a #5 but also a #6 and a #7 just like they did last season. Even that’s possible. In 2018, Mounds View had 4 non-seniors in their top 7, and their #5 nonsenior was way too far back, so I didn’t know if they would be able to close their 4-5 gap, but the next season they found a 5th, 6th, and 7th. They won Heartland NXR in 2019 and their 1-7 split was only 34 seconds.
Eric Schumacher is Jerry Schumacher’s son actually
Interesting how little overlap that list has with the top 10 speed rated from XC. I wonder which is a better predictor, last fall’s XC or this spring’s 3200. FWIW, I think Marcus Reilly is the clear no. 1 for the class of 2024, but he doesn’t have a spring 3200 time in the nationals lists, or at least the one you pulled from. Maybe he’s more of a mid distance track guy than a XC powerhouse though.
Also, Franco and Marcelo Parra are twins. No idea if they are related to the other Parra.
Valor on this list surprises me. I was at the state track meet and their girls distance team seemed kind of small. Do you know who is in their top 5?
Returning 5K PRs:
3 Valor Christian High School (CO) 170 1) Brooke Wilson 16:50.75 2 2) Keeghan Edwards 16:58.16 5 3) Taylor Rorick 18:29.90 46 4) Jordan Blankenship 18:50.01 58 5) Bella Vogl 18:50.89 59
They didn’t lose anyone from their top 5.
returning 3200 times 3 Valor Christian High School (CO) 86 1) Brooke Wilson 10:22.58 1 2) Keeghan Edwards 10:33.72 3 3) Taylor Rorick 11:10.75 13 4) Caroline Dennis 11:52.56 34 5) Alex Lancaster 11:53.04 35
Wilson also committed to Wake Forest
Also, the team size is not a direct correlation to the success of a program. FM has never had a big team and has won many national titles.
Decatur (GA) has to be in the conversation in the Southeast. They were the best team in Georgia last season and return the bulk of their top runners including William Carlton (1:58/4:11/9:20) and Jake Westing (1:56/4:18).
NXN Predictions (with predicted at-large teams included):
1. Newbury Park CA 2. Jesuit LA 3. Grenada CA 4. Jesuit OR 5. Union Catholic NJ 6. Great Oak CA 7. Corner Canyon UT 8. Niwot CO 9. Cherokee Trail CO 10. Bishop Blanchet WA 11. Crater OR 12. Southlake Carroll TX 13. CBA NJ 14. Haddonfield Memorial NJ 15. Carmel IN 16. Wayzata MN 17. Belen Jesuit Prep FL 18. University High WV 19. Plainfield South IL 20. Corning NY 21. Dowling Catholic IA 22. St Anthony’s NY
I know that Southwest will be great but having no teams in the top 5 just makes it too bold to predict that this region will get 2 at-larges.
As someone familiar with the NY running scene, I will tell you this. Corning will finish in the top 10 at NXN this fall, and St. Anthony's will not qualify.
I predicted St Anthony’s to qualify since They return all of their top 4 who raced at Feds, and 3 more sub-10 guys who weren’t in that top 4. They also return the second fastest group of 5K times (Corning returns the fastest group).
If they fail to qualify it will be a toss up between FM and Burnt Hills. FM has a stronger 1-3 returning, but BH has a stronger 4/5 returning.
3 Valor Christian High School (CO) 170 1) Brooke Wilson 16:50.75 2 2) Keeghan Edwards 16:58.16 5 3) Taylor Rorick 18:29.90 46 4) Jordan Blankenship 18:50.01 58 5) Bella Vogl 18:50.89 59
They didn’t lose anyone from their top 5.
returning 3200 times 3 Valor Christian High School (CO) 86 1) Brooke Wilson 10:22.58 1 2) Keeghan Edwards 10:33.72 3 3) Taylor Rorick 11:10.75 13 4) Caroline Dennis 11:52.56 34 5) Alex Lancaster 11:53.04 35
Wilson also committed to Wake Forest
Also, the team size is not a direct correlation to the success of a program. FM has never had a big team and has won many national titles.
Yes, I agree that team size is not a direct correlation to the success of a program. I was just surprised because I only saw two Valor girls run the 3200 at the state meet while a few of the other schools had far more qualifiers like Niwot, Cherry Creek, and Arapahoe.
I guess I just really don’t know though as I haven’t followed what it takes to make it to NXN as a team. Are the times you listed above for Valor fairly typical of NXN caliber teams? I’m curious to know.
Also, the team size is not a direct correlation to the success of a program. FM has never had a big team and has won many national titles.
Yes, I agree that team size is not a direct correlation to the success of a program. I was just surprised because I only saw two Valor girls run the 3200 at the state meet while a few of the other schools had far more qualifiers like Niwot, Cherry Creek, and Arapahoe.
I guess I just really don’t know though as I haven’t followed what it takes to make it to NXN as a team. Are the times you listed above for Valor fairly typical of NXN caliber teams? I’m curious to know.
Valor Christian girls team auto qualified for NXN with a 18:06 5K average in 2019. They return a 17:59 5K average for next year.
Niwot's freshman class will be.....pretty good. On the boys side, Culpepper and Ritzenheim might be familiar last names.
At the very least, 4:56 rising Anna Prok will help. And if I'm counting right, they have at least 9 girls returning who have run 5:10 or faster at altitude - about a 5:03 sea level equivalent.
the incoming Ritzenhein athlete will be on the girls side