Girls NXN Predictions:
1. Saratoga Springs NY
2. Buchanan CA
3. Niwot CO
4. Arapahoe CO
5. York IL
6. Valor Christian CO
7. Jesuit OR
8. Cutbertson NC
9. Morgantown WV
10. FM NY
11. Great Oak CA
12. Torrey Pines CA
13. Mountain Brook AL
14. Campalindo CO
15. Summit OR
16. Columbus North IN
17. Wayzata MN
18. Olathe East KS
19. Flower Mound TX
20. Carroll TX
21. Cherokee NJ
22. Union Catholic NJ
trundzer wrote:
Girls NXN Predictions:
1. Saratoga Springs NY
2. Buchanan CA
3. Niwot CO
4. Arapahoe CO
5. York IL
6. Valor Christian CO
7. Jesuit OR
8. Cutbertson NC
9. Morgantown WV
10. FM NY
11. Great Oak CA
12. Torrey Pines CA
13. Mountain Brook AL
14. Campalindo CO
15. Summit OR
16. Columbus North IN
17. Wayzata MN
18. Olathe East KS
19. Flower Mound TX
20. Carroll TX
21. Cherokee NJ
22. Union Catholic NJ
Campolindo CA*
Any clear indications yet on which top runners or teams won’t choose to be at NXN, either for Eastbay or Runninglane?
Explanations on boys NXN predictions:
1. Newbury Park CA - had 5 guys under 15 minutes at RunningLane, and returns 5 guys. Plus Aaron Cantu.
2. Jesuit LA - didn’t graduate anyone at all, and returns 5 guys under 9:22.
3. Granada CA - returns 4 guys under 9:28, and their #2 runner from CC
4. Jesuit OR - placed 3rd last year and returns 4 varsity guys. Should be able to find a 5th over the summer. They always seem to have someone come out of nowhere. Always has good depth.
5. Union Catholic - got 4th last year. Loses Brosnan and another top guy, but returns 3 scorers, a transfer who ran a 9:28, and an incoming sophomore who ran a 9:31. So they return 5 guys under 9:31.
6. Great Oak CA. Even with a new coach, they are still doing really well. They lose their 2-4 but track season has shown that they have guys that will be filling in for those who have graduated.
7. Corner Canyon UT. Was very close to winning NXN in 2019 (last time NXN happened). Returns 4 varsity guys. But needs a #5 to step up. They always seem to have someone come out of nowhere though.
8. Niwot CO. A luxurious program that only loses 3 guys, and returns 4 solid seniors and some sophomores that will help this team.
9. Cherokee Trail CO. The Southwest region always deserves an at-large bid. Cherokee Trail Returns their whole squad and will be lead by potential All-American Hunter Strand.
10. Bishop Blanchet WA. Returns most of their squad and looking to be lead by 2 potential all-Americans - Schneider and Recupero. They also have a good #3 in Drew Oliver.
11. Crater OR. Losing only one senior from varsity. Should be good enough to get an at-large. Another team that will be lead by 2 potential all-Americans - Gorze and Tostenson.
12. Southlake Carroll TX. Won state and almost won NXR, falling to Grapevine whose #5 had an off race. This is one of the deepest programs in the country, and there will be stiff competitions for the top 7 spots.
13. CBA NJ. A storied program that returns all but 1 runner.
14. Haddonfield Memorial NJ. Should be able to get an at-large bid. They had a 9:35 average in the 3200.
15. Carmel IN. Returns 4 guys from their top 7. Solid program that always finds depth.
16. Wayzata MN. Returns 5 guys under 16 minutes and another guy who ran a 16:13 at NXR. This large program always finds depth.
17. Belen Jesuit Prep FL. Returns 6 guys off the squad that got 5th place at NXR.
18. University High WV. Returns a 9:36 3200 average.
19. Plainfield South IL. Placed ninth at NXR last year and returns all scorers. Brebeuf Jesuit Prep needs a solid #5 to qualify.
20. Corning NY. Returns 5 guys from last years team. They have qualified many times. They’re in the New York region after all.
21. Dowling Catholic IA. Got 9th at NXR last year. Returns 5 of their top 6. Doesn’t say much about NXN though. Millard West needs a 5th runner to qualify again and be as good as last year.
22. St Anthony’s NY. Returns lots of depth and a 4:32 average. Does not say a lot about NXN though.
trundzer wrote:
Explanations on boys NXN predictions:
1. Newbury Park CA - had 5 guys under 15 minutes at RunningLane, and returns 5 guys. Plus Aaron Cantu.
2. Jesuit LA - didn’t graduate anyone at all, and returns 5 guys under 9:22.
3. Granada CA - returns 4 guys under 9:28, and their #2 runner from CC
4. Jesuit OR - placed 3rd last year and returns 4 varsity guys. Should be able to find a 5th over the summer. They always seem to have someone come out of nowhere. Always has good depth.
5. Union Catholic - got 4th last year. Loses Brosnan and another top guy, but returns 3 scorers, a transfer who ran a 9:28, and an incoming sophomore who ran a 9:31. So they return 5 guys under 9:31.
6. Great Oak CA. Even with a new coach, they are still doing really well. They lose their 2-4 but track season has shown that they have guys that will be filling in for those who have graduated.
7. Corner Canyon UT. Was very close to winning NXN in 2019 (last time NXN happened). Returns 4 varsity guys. But needs a #5 to step up. They always seem to have someone come out of nowhere though.
8. Niwot CO. A luxurious program that only loses 3 guys, and returns 4 solid seniors and some sophomores that will help this team.
9. Cherokee Trail CO. The Southwest region always deserves an at-large bid. Cherokee Trail Returns their whole squad and will be lead by potential All-American Hunter Strand.
10. Bishop Blanchet WA. Returns most of their squad and looking to be lead by 2 potential all-Americans - Schneider and Recupero. They also have a good #3 in Drew Oliver.
11. Crater OR. Losing only one senior from varsity. Should be good enough to get an at-large. Another team that will be lead by 2 potential all-Americans - Gorze and Tostenson.
12. Southlake Carroll TX. Won state and almost won NXR, falling to Grapevine whose #5 had an off race. This is one of the deepest programs in the country, and there will be stiff competitions for the top 7 spots.
13. CBA NJ. A storied program that returns all but 1 runner.
14. Haddonfield Memorial NJ. Should be able to get an at-large bid. They had a 9:35 average in the 3200.
15. Carmel IN. Returns 4 guys from their top 7. Solid program that always finds depth.
16. Wayzata MN. Returns 5 guys under 16 minutes and another guy who ran a 16:13 at NXR. This large program always finds depth.
17. Belen Jesuit Prep FL. Returns 6 guys off the squad that got 5th place at NXR.
18. University High WV. Returns a 9:36 3200 average.
19. Plainfield South IL. Placed ninth at NXR last year and returns all scorers. Brebeuf Jesuit Prep needs a solid #5 to qualify.
20. Corning NY. Returns 5 guys from last years team. They have qualified many times. They’re in the New York region after all.
21. Dowling Catholic IA. Got 9th at NXR last year. Returns 5 of their top 6. Doesn’t say much about NXN though. Millard West needs a 5th runner to qualify again and be as good as last year.
22. St Anthony’s NY. Returns lots of depth and a 4:32 average. Does not say a lot about NXN though.
Any other CA teams have a shot or who could be a dark horse?
Girls NXN predictions-
1. Saratoga Springs NY - has been the best team in the country for a number of years, and with their returning fab 5 (Wheeler, Wheeler, Bush, Belisle, and Hart), I think they still will be.
2. Buchanan CA - placed second at RunningLane and returns all of their scorers.
3. Niwot CO - won RunningLane but loses 3 of their scorers. Still the best in the Southwest region
4. Araprahoe CO - got 3rd at RL and returns everyone
5. York IL - got 4th at RunningLane and returns 5 of their top 6.
6. Valor Christian CO. Based on the strength of the region, we can make a case that Southwest deserves an at-large bid. They did not lose anyone from the team and they even had one commit to Wake Forest.
7. Jesuit OR. Placed 6th at RunningLane and returns 6 girls.
8.Springville UT. Returns their entire squad. Best Non-Colorado team in the Southwest. Should be able to get a second at-large bid from that region.
9. Cutbertson NC. Placed 14th at Nats. Returns everyone.
10. Morgantown WV. Returns Irene Riggs and 4 other scorers. 10:59 3200 average.
11. FM NY. Very strong program that have won NXN many times. Returns 5 girls.
12. Great Oak CA. Returns their whole squad. Like their boys team, their girls team is doing very well.
13. Torrey Pines CA. Returns a 11:06 3200 average. This team includes 2 Dorostkar sisters. Should be able to get an at large from this region.
14. Mountain Brook AL. Returns a 11:17 3200 average.
15. Summit OR. Very good program that won NXN in 2018. Returns 4 girls but need to find a #5.
16. Columbus North IN. Placed 12th at RunningLane and returns their 1,2,3 and 6.
17. Wayzata MN. Placed 5th at NXR and returns everyone except for Nechanicky.
18. Olathe East KS. Placed 4th at NXR and returns their whole team.
19. Flower Mound TX. Loses Natalie Cook but they will have a strong top 3. They need a 4 and 5 to be at the level they were at last year.
20. Carroll TX. Placed 20th at Running Lane. Loses 1 runner though.
21. Cherokee NJ. Won NXR last year and returns their whole team except for their #2 and #7. Seems like they’re gonna qualify from this region in the next couple of years. They’re in the NorthEast region after all.
22. Union Catholic NJ. Returns their top 4 + a 11:36 3200 runner. Took 4th at the meet of champs. Doesn’t say much about NXN though.
Decided to change my picks that the Southwest region will send 2 at large teams not California. Southwest has more teams up front
CA Raisin wrote:
Any other CA teams have a shot or who could be a dark horse?
For Boys:
Besides NP, Granada, Great Oak which I already listed, I’d say here are some teams to watch:
- Campalindo. Placed 5th at state in the merge. Returns their 2-4 from state (all went under 16 minutes) but needs to find a 4th and 5th.
- San Clemente. Returns their 2-5 but needs a #5 to step up.
- Jesuit CA. Has had many good teams in the past and also had many individuals become elite runners out of nowhere. Returns solid top 3, but needs a 4 and 5 to step up.
- Loyola. Finished 13th at RunningLane but needs to find a 4th and 5th to join the 3 they have coming back.
- Clovis. Probably not that strong of a team but they return Caudillo and 5 other varsity guys.
For Girls:
Besides Great Oak, Buchanan and Torrey Pines which I’ve listed:
- Oak Ridge. Placed 3rd at state in the merge but loses 2 girls.
- Campalindo. Returns all scorers
- Granite Bay - returns all scorers
- Cathedral Catholic. Returns a 11:16 3200 average.
Newbury Park is losing 3 scorers which is gonna hurt them, but we’ll have to see how well their freshmen do. And whether they get any transfers and if anyone decides to open enroll there.
Ventura girls team might be one to watch in the future years. Sadie Engelhardt was not the only freshman scoring for them. Their 4th and 5th runners were also freshmen.
Their boys team has a great class of 2024. Look for them to potentially beat Newbury Park when those guys are seniors.
trundzer wrote:
Ventura girls team might be one to watch in the future years. Sadie Engelhardt was not the only freshman scoring for them. Their 4th and 5th runners were also freshmen.
Their boys team has a great class of 2024. Look for them to potentially beat Newbury Park when those guys are seniors.
Their boys look like they’re returning 9:18, 9:26, 9:30, 9:37 and 9:50. All rising juniors.
Last year In the girls CC program, Ventura had:
3 seniors
6 juniors
5 sophomores
16 freshmen.
5 of the top 7 returning Ventura girls will be sophomores based on 3-mile PRs. Look for this group to continue to hopefully improve together.
Niwot's freshman class will be.....pretty good. On the boys side, Culpepper and Ritzenheim might be familiar last names.
At the very least, 4:56 rising Anna Prok will help. And if I'm counting right, they have at least 9 girls returning who have run 5:10 or faster at altitude - about a 5:03 sea level equivalent.
Press the Prok button to dispense another Prok wrote:
Niwot's freshman class will be.....pretty good. On the boys side, Culpepper and Ritzenheim might be familiar last names.
At the very least, 4:56 rising Anna Prok will help. And if I'm counting right, they have at least 9 girls returning who have run 5:10 or faster at altitude - about a 5:03 sea level equivalent.
Is Rocco Culpepper for sure going to Niwot?
I know Cruz went there, but he has a brother Levi who runs for Fairview. They placed 5th in the 5A state meet last year, so they’re not that terrible of a team.
Niwot’s school district is ST. Vrain Valley School District.
Here are the middle schools in that district:
Altona
Coal Ridge
Mead
Sunset
Trail Ridge
West View
Don’t forget that there are other high schools in that district, so people may possibly go to those.
Ritzenhein went to Sunset Middle, so the prospects of going to Niwot don’t look too shabby.
But Niwot already has one of the best Classes of 2025 in the country.
So because of how good their program and coach is, they might have a shot to win nationals at some point. Class of 2025 at Newbury Park looks very sparse, although their class of 2026 seems to be the best in the country.
Niwot class of 2025 has 8 guys faster than anyone from their Class of 2024.
Valor Christian had a good class of 2025 too and they have a freshman coming in that should make their top 7 this year. But I heard some negatives about Valor Christian’s coach so expect some people to transfer out of that school in the near future, like Ty Garrett did.
Press the Prok button to dispense another Prok wrote:
At the very least, 4:56 rising Anna Prok will help. And if I'm counting right, they have at least 9 girls returning who have run 5:10 or faster at altitude - about a 5:03 sea level equivalent.
And Kye Toothaker has a c/o 2028 sister from Anna’s team who ran a 7:09 in the 1600.
Also, Carlos Cheuriyot has a c / o 2027 sister who won the 3500 meter race last fall. Niwot’s gonna have some solid teams in the future.
In my opinion I highly doubt that California will send 2 at-large teams to NXN.
I remember reading another thread back in 2019 where it says that Nike hates California so if the 4th place team does not finish close to the third place team in the merge, California does not send two at-large team.
American Fork is already starting to show what they are made of.
Steel Days Results:
1.Daniel Simmons, 15:16
2.Ben Jaster, 15:27 (16:22)
3.Seth Smith, 16:34 (17:14)
4.Chase Pack, 16:48
Looks like they were missing Ben Bradshaw, who was their #4 (second nonsenior) at RunningLane. Probably would have run in the 15:40s.
So they have a better top 3 than last year. Last year’s 4th and 5th runners were better than this year’s 4th and 5th runners.
So In summary, it seems like they got a better team than they did last year. But they don’t have as much depth.
Also, this year American Fork is looking to have only one senior. look for them to do insane things next year! But after Seth Smith leaves, they will need to find a #5 to close a gap behind Chase Pack.
Also, the fact that 2 of the guys were able to jump from 21s to 17s in a year is absolutely insane
Girls team:
10.Avalon Mecham 17:46 (18:22) (junior)
18.Natalia Boltz, 18:57 (18:52) (junior)
20.Sophie Steiger, 19:10 (freshman)
22.Haley Whitford, 19:31 (20:48) (soph)
23.Audrey Wright, 19:36 (19:38) (senior)
This team was missing Tori Stratton (rising junior who was on varsity last year).
So it looks like all of their top 5 will be back next year too.
trundzer wrote:
Explanations on boys NXN predictions:
1. Newbury Park CA - had 5 guys under 15 minutes at RunningLane, and returns 5 guys. Plus Aaron Cantu.
2. Jesuit LA - didn’t graduate anyone at all, and returns 5 guys under 9:22.
3. Granada CA - returns 4 guys under 9:28, and their #2 runner from CC
4. Jesuit OR - placed 3rd last year and returns 4 varsity guys. Should be able to find a 5th over the summer. They always seem to have someone come out of nowhere. Always has good depth.
5. Union Catholic - got 4th last year. Loses Brosnan and another top guy, but returns 3 scorers, a transfer who ran a 9:28, and an incoming sophomore who ran a 9:31. So they return 5 guys under 9:31.
6. Great Oak CA. Even with a new coach, they are still doing really well. They lose their 2-4 but track season has shown that they have guys that will be filling in for those who have graduated.
7. Corner Canyon UT. Was very close to winning NXN in 2019 (last time NXN happened). Returns 4 varsity guys. But needs a #5 to step up. They always seem to have someone come out of nowhere though.
8. Niwot CO. A luxurious program that only loses 3 guys, and returns 4 solid seniors and some sophomores that will help this team.
9. Cherokee Trail CO. The Southwest region always deserves an at-large bid. Cherokee Trail Returns their whole squad and will be lead by potential All-American Hunter Strand.
10. Bishop Blanchet WA. Returns most of their squad and looking to be lead by 2 potential all-Americans - Schneider and Recupero. They also have a good #3 in Drew Oliver.
11. Crater OR. Losing only one senior from varsity. Should be good enough to get an at-large. Another team that will be lead by 2 potential all-Americans - Gorze and Tostenson.
12. Southlake Carroll TX. Won state and almost won NXR, falling to Grapevine whose #5 had an off race. This is one of the deepest programs in the country, and there will be stiff competitions for the top 7 spots.
13. CBA NJ. A storied program that returns all but 1 runner.
14. Haddonfield Memorial NJ. Should be able to get an at-large bid. They had a 9:35 average in the 3200.
15. Carmel IN. Returns 4 guys from their top 7. Solid program that always finds depth.
16. Wayzata MN. Returns 5 guys under 16 minutes and another guy who ran a 16:13 at NXR. This large program always finds depth.
17. Belen Jesuit Prep FL. Returns 6 guys off the squad that got 5th place at NXR.
18. University High WV. Returns a 9:36 3200 average.
19. Plainfield South IL. Placed ninth at NXR last year and returns all scorers. Brebeuf Jesuit Prep needs a solid #5 to qualify.
20. Corning NY. Returns 5 guys from last years team. They have qualified many times. They’re in the New York region after all.
21. Dowling Catholic IA. Got 9th at NXR last year. Returns 5 of their top 6. Doesn’t say much about NXN though. Millard West needs a 5th runner to qualify again and be as good as last year.
22. St Anthony’s NY. Returns lots of depth and a 4:32 average. Does not say a lot about NXN though.
Corner Canyon is losing their #3, Carter Cutting. I think Mountain View (UT) is going to make it from the SW instead, not sure where they would place here though. Also do you think SW has a chance to send 4 teams this year? They seem to have a lot of depth, but I haven't looked into other regions much.
