Belnap wasn’t even a nationally elite runner at the beginning of the 2019 season. He only took 4th at Bob Firman. It wasn’t until NXR (when he was so close to Sprout) when I thought he could do something big at NXN.
Northeast - I honestly think some random teams will get top 2 from here. Not a very strong region. Wouldn’t be surprised if I get this one wrong. 1. Cherokee - won NXR / returns 5 of their top 6 2. Haddonfield Memorial - placed 3rd at regionals and returns 4 scorers Watchlist: Colts Neck / Union Catholic / North Allegheny
Weymouth of MA loses 4 seniors but returns 3 incoming - all of them scored. Placed 4th at NXR. And another incoming soph who was near the top of JV. And a fine incoming freshman. Look for this team to maybe be at the top of the region in 2024. Pretty impressive for how small the team is.
Northeast - I honestly think some random teams will get top 2 from here. Not a very strong region. Wouldn’t be surprised if I get this one wrong. 1. Cherokee - won NXR / returns 5 of their top 6 2. Haddonfield Memorial - placed 3rd at regionals and returns 4 scorers Watchlist: Colts Neck / Union Catholic / North Allegheny
Weymouth of MA loses 4 seniors but returns 3 incoming - all of them scored. Placed 4th at NXR. And another incoming soph who was near the top of JV. And a fine incoming freshman. Look for this team to maybe be at the top of the region in 2024. Pretty impressive for how small the team is.
Jaron Hartshorn of Lone Peak (Utah) might be a dark horse to get into the top 10. 4:03 altitude converted 1600 as a sophmore and just ran 8:52 for two miles at Brooks. Didn’t make noise on the national scene last year because of some illness problems has big potential
Northeast - I honestly think some random teams will get top 2 from here. Not a very strong region. Wouldn’t be surprised if I get this one wrong. 1. Cherokee - won NXR / returns 5 of their top 6 2. Haddonfield Memorial - placed 3rd at regionals and returns 4 scorers Watchlist: Colts Neck / Union Catholic / North Allegheny
Weymouth of MA loses 4 seniors but returns 3 incoming - all of them scored. Placed 4th at NXR. And another incoming soph who was near the top of JV. And a fine incoming freshman. Look for this team to maybe be at the top of the region in 2024. Pretty impressive for how small the team is.
1. Lex Young 2. Leo Young 3. Aaron Sahlman 4. Chris Caudillo 5. Tyrone Gorze 6. Connor Burns 7. Rocky Hansen 8. Simeon Birnbaum 9. Devan Kipyego 10. Kole Mathiason
Numbers 1 and 2 can finish in either order.
Can’t disagree with the list, but it is interesting that only 3 of them ran at Running Lane (just the NB 3) and only 2 made it to Eastbay Nationals (Gorze and Mathiason). That may or may not say something about how the other 5 or their coaches would view peaking for post season XC races as opposed to having already peaked at state and/or turning focus to track.
1. Lex Young 2. Leo Young 3. Aaron Sahlman 4. Chris Caudillo 5. Tyrone Gorze 6. Connor Burns 7. Rocky Hansen 8. Simeon Birnbaum 9. Devan Kipyego 10. Kole Mathiason
Numbers 1 and 2 can finish in either order.
Can’t disagree with the list, but it is interesting that only 3 of them ran at Running Lane (just the NB 3) and only 2 made it to Eastbay Nationals (Gorze and Mathiason). That may or may not say something about how the other 5 or their coaches would view peaking for post season XC races as opposed to having already peaked at state and/or turning focus to track.
Yeah a lot of people stepped up this spring and went sub-8:52 in the 3200 or ran a sub-4 or 4-flat out of nowhere.
Chris Caudillo ran the Team Nationals in California which was the same time as Garmin
Boys top 5 Teams: 1. Newbury Park CA - had 5 guys under 15 minutes at RunningLane, and returns 5 guys! 2. Jesuit LA - didn’t graduate anyone at all, and returns 5 guys under 9:22. 3. Grenada CA - returns 4 guys under 9:28, and their #2 runner from CC 4. Jesuit OR - placed 3rd last year and returns 4 varsity guys. Should be able to find a 5th over the summer. They always seem to have someone come out of nowhere. Always has good depth. 5. Valor Christian CO - returns 4 of their top 5, and plus some more freshmen, one of which I’m sure will step up over the summer.
One of the potential candidates to close the 4-5 gap for Jesuit would be Eric Schumacher. He had older siblings that lead the team their junior years. In fact, one of the Schumachers went from JV to Jesuit’s #3 guy in one year. Eric ran a 4:15 in the 1500. The fastest 1500 time by a Jesuit nonsenior JV runner.
But they also have an incoming soph who ran a 4:18 in the 1500 as a freshman. He was the fastest freshman at Jesuit. Many people make really big jumps from freshman to sophomore year.
But then they also have an incoming senior who had the fastest 5K time on the Jesuit JV team and also ran a 4:18 in the 1500 and will probably do his best to finish his HS career on varsity.
They could find not just a #5 but also a #6 and a #7 just like they did last season. Even that’s possible. In 2018, Mounds View had 4 non-seniors in their top 7, and their #5 nonsenior was way too far back, so I didn’t know if they would be able to close their 4-5 gap, but the next season they found a 5th, 6th, and 7th. They won Heartland NXR in 2019 and their 1-7 split was only 34 seconds.
Valor Christian’s 5th runner candidates: They have a freshman coming in who has a 10:12 3200 PR. A rising sophomore with a 10:01 PR in the 3200. Rising sophomore with a 4:32 PR in the 1600.
Seems like Valor Christian has a solid sophomore-and-under class to build on for future years. In 2024 they will probably be the second best team in CO behind Niwot. Valor and Niwot might become among the best teams in the nation in 2024. Pretty cool because when Cole Sprout was a senior, Valor Christian boys team wasn’t very good.
Southlake Carroll won't be a top 5 team, but top 10 is possible. They return some good depth. Classification is for this past season. Probably the best team in Texas, although there is two other teams that I'm expecting might be up there as well.
David Fisher 4:24/9:25/15:38 Jr.
Hunter Hill 4:30/9:32/15:39 Jr.
Brady Golomb 4:25/9:32/15:41 So.
Jude Alvarez 4:23/9:34 So.
Dylan Fisher 4:42/9:47/15:40 Jr.
Jack Litwin 4:31/9:51/15:52 Jr.
Alex Severson 4:39/9:44/15:54 Fr.
Zach Troutman 4:36/9:49/16:06 So.
Robert Freeman DNR 2022 Track (but was a top runner during XC) 9:47 PR from 2021 Jr.
Jacob Freeman 9:45 Jr.
Logan Cantu 1:57/4:17 - DNR 3200/5K - Has a 2021 3200m PR of 9:31 Jr.
Tyler Ortiz 4:31/10:01 - included him because his 3200m time is a bit deceiving in where he could have ran Jr.
Yeah I think clear that Southlake Carroll will be the top team in Texas. They return their 1-6 plus some other studs that you mentioned who weren’t on varsity last year. Top 5 will indeed be too much of a stretch for them. They only finished 22nd at nationals.
Other TX teams that will be great include the Woodlands and Atascocita. I don’t see either team beating Southlake Carroll though.
Watch for the IMG Academy girls team this year. They return a strong top 3 in Haynes, Ward, and McNatt. 2 of them are seniors. If they can get 2 more transfers up there (IMG Academy seems to get at least one fast transfer every year), they will be one of the best girls teams in the Southeast.
IMG Academy appears to have incoming freshman Huntley Buckingham who ran a 10:15 in the 3k that would make an impact. Now sure if she will be doing CC or not. I haven’t seen that she’s ever done it. She is also a very committed tennis player.
Valor Christian’s 5th runner candidates: They have a freshman coming in who has a 10:12 3200 PR. A rising sophomore with a 10:01 PR in the 3200. Rising sophomore with a 4:32 PR in the 1600.
Seems like Valor Christian has a solid sophomore-and-under class to build on for future years. In 2024 they will probably be the second best team in CO behind Niwot. Valor and Niwot might become among the best teams in the nation in 2024. Pretty cool because when Cole Sprout was a senior, Valor Christian boys team wasn’t very good.
Valor sounds like a dumpster fire right now. Coach resigned or was terminated depending on who you listen to, Ty Garret transferring out of state (and probably caused the coaching situation). They still have some great runners, but they might be 3rd in 5A this season.
Since Ty Garrett transfers out of Valor Christian, that leaves Valor Christian with only 3 returns from last year. I guess at this point I will have to change my top 5 boys team predictions.
Boys top 5 Teams: 1. Newbury Park CA - had 5 guys under 15 minutes at RunningLane, and returns 5 guys 2. Jesuit LA - didn’t graduate anyone at all, and returns 5 guys under 9:22. 3. Grenada CA - returns 4 guys under 9:28, and their #2 runner from CC 4. Jesuit OR - placed 3rd last year and returns 4 varsity guys. Should be able to find a 5th over the summer. They always seem to have someone come out of nowhere. Always has good depth. 5. Union Catholic - got 4th last year. Loses Brosnan and another top guy, but returns 3 scorers, a transfer who ran a 9:28, and an incoming sophomore who ran a 9:31. So they return 5 guys under 9:31.
Since Ty Garrett is transferring out of Valor Christian, this team no longer has a chance to get top 2 since that leaves this team with only 3 returners. They would need to find 2 more guys to close the gap behind their 3rd in order to get top 2. So I predict Niwot and Cherokee Trail to get top 2 in the Southwest region for the boys.