Let's say hypothetically their best runners lived somewhere random like Nebraska or Arkansas, grew up in middle-class households (no altitude trips every summer), and ran 30-40 miles per week with a normal high school coach, but they have the same talent. What times would they be running?
I think their best guys would run around 4:10-4:15 for the mile and 9:10ish for the 3200.
one of the greatest advantages is 12 months of so. cal weather.
Tell that to the Saratoga and FM girls or the York boys. Culture is beats weather, workout specifics, and most of the rest put together.
this is a big reason why they are so good in cross, less so for track. difficult buildup into spring track season, but leads to good summer training for cross.
FM trains their girls like pros which is why they are so good in HS and don't get much better.
Anyways, that my contribution to this conversation. I just don't care about a high school team.
Funny enough, a 2021 NPHS grad, Fiona Hawkins, just set the Irish junior record for the 5000m today (16:07). She was no superstar in HS either with a best finish of 117th at NXN and HS PRs of 2:18/4:55/11:46. Looks like NPHS alums on both the girls and boys side continue to improve after high school.
FM trains their girls like pros which is why they are so good in HS and don't get much better.
Anyways, that my contribution to this conversation. I just don't care about a high school team.
Funny enough, a 2021 NPHS grad, Fiona Hawkins, just set the Irish junior record for the 5000m today (16:07). She was no superstar in HS either with a best finish of 117th at NXN and HS PRs of 2:18/4:55/11:46. Looks like NPHS alums on both the girls and boys side continue to improve after high school.
Why is that funny? Before I make my list, if a runner improves, that means the program is good and a runner doesn't that means the program is bad? Just want to make sure when I point out alums who didn't improve, you don't say, yeah but.
Would we be in agreement that if if the number is 50% in either direction that would be the indicator?
Funny enough, a 2021 NPHS grad, Fiona Hawkins, just set the Irish junior record for the 5000m today (16:07). She was no superstar in HS either with a best finish of 117th at NXN and HS PRs of 2:18/4:55/11:46. Looks like NPHS alums on both the girls and boys side continue to improve after high school.
Why is that funny? Before I make my list, if a runner improves, that means the program is good and a runner doesn't that means the program is bad? Just want to make sure when I point out alums who didn't improve, you don't say, yeah but.
Would we be in agreement that if if the number is 50% in either direction that would be the indicator?
Of course looking at one runner in a vacuum doesn't mean anything. But we already know how well Nico Young is doing, Jace Ascbrenner has improved, a bunch of the girls are running solid PRs. This result points to an obvious trend that NPHS runners are clearly not finished the moment they graduate. Of course there are a couple runners who have stagnated, but they are the exception rather than the norm here. Of the top 10 runners in my high school's history, only 1 ever improved in college. It's not that they were overtrained - they ran 40 mpw - it's just that the coach failed to build an intrinsic drive in them. They ran because they loved winning and being looked up to, and when you take that away many of them would just slack off or quit altogether. This doesn't seem to be a problem with NP alums.
Why is that funny? Before I make my list, if a runner improves, that means the program is good and a runner doesn't that means the program is bad? Just want to make sure when I point out alums who didn't improve, you don't say, yeah but.
Would we be in agreement that if if the number is 50% in either direction that would be the indicator?
Of course looking at one runner in a vacuum doesn't mean anything. But we already know how well Nico Young is doing, Jace Ascbrenner has improved, a bunch of the girls are running solid PRs. This result points to an obvious trend that NPHS runners are clearly not finished the moment they graduate. Of course there are a couple runners who have stagnated, but they are the exception rather than the norm here. Of the top 10 runners in my high school's history, only 1 ever improved in college. It's not that they were overtrained - they ran 40 mpw - it's just that the coach failed to build an intrinsic drive in them. They ran because they loved winning and being looked up to, and when you take that away many of them would just slack off or quit altogether. This doesn't seem to be a problem with NP alums.
So if there are more than 50% who stagnate or not improve, would that make Nico, Jace and Hawkins the exception?
That and the fact that college kids have yet another 1 to 3 years of training under their belt.
As to the OP, from what I've read, they do not train like college runners, let alone Pro runners. They do take it seriously, but the volume is way lower.
They are certainly not the only HS athlete's to take their sport seriously. They have a number of things in their favor: a good coach, good teammates (current and past), and talent. I'm sure there are other reasons as well.
Take any one of them out of their environment and it's hard to say what they would do. My guess is Colin would still be a 800/1600 stud. Leo and Lex would still be great at XC. Guessing times is impossible, but it would likely be slower.
There’s been several one-offs here in the Sacramento area. The 2nd fastest 3200m time in history at Fernandez’s HS is 9:37 and 9:46 at Armijo where Grijalva ran.
Kids with that type of talent are going to be super motivated and the coach is going to know it’s a once in a career opportunity and will do his homework.
There must be several LRers that were fanatics that didn’t run faster than 9:10. Do they not believe they would have been as good as the NP runners had they had the same talent? I’m pretty sure that I would have.
I'm not sure I completely understand your point. Is it that there are one-off talents? Sure and it's not that rare, but it's more common, I think, to have role models. Whether they are on your team, another team, or from another time.
These are some of the factors I think lead to exceptional HS performance (in no particular order - well, maybe the first is the first).
1) raw talent - you were always the faster kid in your neighborhood
2) how early did you start training
3) how good a coach do you have
4) how quickly did you mature
5) competition (on your team or others)
6) what do you think is possible - have you limited yourself, or are there others who have shown you what is possible.
I'm sure I'm leaving things off.
I think NP wins on all the above (though I suppose we can't know for sure about 2 and 4).