Theyre not. Never have been. On an individual level they are unremarkable, all things considered. Bordering on G League for their cohort.
People only marveled at how there was 4 of them on the same team, which is unusual. It's basically the cheerleader effect. You can have four girls who are at most a 7 individually stand next to each other and they'll look like 8s.
If that were true, there would be dozens of kids that could break 3:50.
Oh shoot I actually originally made that post because I got sidetracked while writing The NP/Brosnan Manifesto, which I was inspired to write after reading like 3 of your posts in the other thread lol
Honestly though, if every kid in the US got the training that Jakob did, I'd be surprised if a few dozen weren't breaking 3:50. I mean, Kessler ran 3:51 off of two years of training, and Ryun ran 3:51 at 19 after 3 years of running. If Kessler started with Warhurst as a 9th grader, he'd probably be sub 3:50, and if Ryun born today and was training since 9th grade with a good coach, he'd be sub 3:50.
So, I think it is true, and I think there are dozens of kids who could break 3:50 given they had Ingebrigtsen training from elementary school age.
If they trained for it, and they had the best coach why not?
How many kids achieve their true potential in running? About 0.01%
4 kids out of 250 males being capable of breaking 4 by the end of their High School career is just not realistic.
Out of the more than 3M HS XC runners since the mid-60s, there have been 14 that broke 4:00 and presumably the vast majority of guys running XC have better than average talent.
You should have just written but, but but they’re not that talent because I’m jealous of them.
Hey bud, I'm sorry that your old age has rotted your brain to the point you can't comprehend any of my arguments, but you don't need to project your feelings onto my posts. Thanks <3
If they trained for it, and they had the best coach why not?
How many kids achieve their true potential in running? About 0.01%
4 kids out of 250 males being capable of breaking 4 by the end of their High School career is just not realistic.
What about 4 out of 500? That's how many boys there were in my school and many of them had more natural speed than me. But there were only 2 of us in the whole school who got anywhere near out true potential in running.
If they trained for it, and they had the best coach why not?
How many kids achieve their true potential in running? About 0.01%
4 kids out of 250 males being capable of breaking 4 by the end of their High School career is just not realistic.
4/250 guys breaking 4 in HS isn't realistic, but every kid running track from a young age and having a top tier coach and culture also isn't realistic. We're just saying that if kids were training that long with a great coach, there's a good chance that 4/250 kids would be under 4.
Theyre not. Never have been. On an individual level they are unremarkable, all things considered. Bordering on G League for their cohort.
People only marveled at how there was 4 of them on the same team, which is unusual. It's basically the cheerleader effect. You can have four girls who are at most a 7 individually stand next to each other and they'll look like 8s.
Dang, OK I wish you would come into threads sooner, we're all here arguing when you could just come in here and tell us the right answer. I do think you should stop saying G League and start saying JV though. G League makes no sense because this is running, not baseball. Thanks homie stay safe out there.
Out of the more than 3M HS XC runners since the mid-60s, there have been 14 that broke 4:00 and presumably the vast majority of guys running XC have better than average talent.
Why do we assume the vast majority of guys running XC have better than average talent? Maybe if the school has tryouts or certain cutoffs, but I only know one school that we competed against that had tryouts, and it was just that people had to run a mile in August faster than they did in May (barring external circumstances). I'd bet that our varsity soccer team had kids every year with the talent to crush our school records (4:07/9:1x), but they didn't want to run distance.
Given that millions of people have competed in XC, I'd bet that the average XC guy is less than a standard deviation from the average guy in terms of talent.
4/250 guys breaking 4 in HS isn't realistic, but every kid running track from a young age and having a top tier coach and culture also isn't realistic. We're just saying that if kids were training that long with a great coach, there's a good chance that 4/250 kids would be under 4.
Still unrealistic. You're vastly overrating the effect of coaching and running from a young age. Read about York which basically had what you're talking about and sure you can adjust for the times/spikes and get back to me on how many sub 4:05 guys they produced. That was an area with nearly everyone doing youth track and trying out for the team. They had incredible teams, but it didn't mean every kid was going to break 4 which requires unusual talent and not just early participation and coaching.
Theyre not. Never have been. On an individual level they are unremarkable, all things considered. Bordering on G League for their cohort.
People only marveled at how there was 4 of them on the same team, which is unusual. It's basically the cheerleader effect. You can have four girls who are at most a 7 individually stand next to each other and they'll look like 8s.
If they had the right make up artist, stylist and photographer, they'll look like 9s.
If that were true, there would be dozens of kids that could break 3:50.
Oh shoot I actually originally made that post because I got sidetracked while writing The NP/Brosnan Manifesto, which I was inspired to write after reading like 3 of your posts in the other thread lol
Honestly though, if every kid in the US got the training that Jakob did, I'd be surprised if a few dozen weren't breaking 3:50. I mean, Kessler ran 3:51 off of two years of training, and Ryun ran 3:51 at 19 after 3 years of running. If Kessler started with Warhurst as a 9th grader, he'd probably be sub 3:50, and if Ryun born today and was training since 9th grade with a good coach, he'd be sub 3:50.
So, I think it is true, and I think there are dozens of kids who could break 3:50 given they had Ingebrigtsen training from elementary school age.
In the open division there have been maybe a total of 10 Americans that have run 3:50 or the 1500m equivalent, but you really believe that every year there are dozens of HS kids that could do it? The early start will result in a fast HS frosh but that’s about it. Probably the only US HS kid capable of ever running 3:50 was Kessler.
What about 4 out of 500? That's how many boys there were in my school and many of them had more natural speed than me. But there were only 2 of us in the whole school who got anywhere near out true potential in running.
The other guy went on to great things.
We're discussing the mile. Natural speed is much less important than natural endurance. You guys were probably in the 98th percentile of natural endurance, which is why you likely stuck with running (and thrived). You can give me a bunch of guys who could run faster for 15 or 20 second seconds, but would start walking after running a 75-second quarter, whereas you were able to run sub-5 doing 15-20mpw as a freshman.
Theyre not. Never have been. On an individual level they are unremarkable, all things considered. Bordering on G League for their cohort.
People only marveled at how there was 4 of them on the same team, which is unusual. It's basically the cheerleader effect. You can have four girls who are at most a 7 individually stand next to each other and they'll look like 8s.
Dang, OK I wish you would come into threads sooner, we're all here arguing when you could just come in here and tell us the right answer. I do think you should stop saying G League and start saying JV though. G League makes no sense because this is running, not baseball. Thanks homie stay safe out there.
Will try to be more active when outdoor season picks up.
Theyre not. Never have been. On an individual level they are unremarkable, all things considered. Bordering on G League for their cohort.
People only marveled at how there was 4 of them on the same team, which is unusual. It's basically the cheerleader effect. You can have four girls who are at most a 7 individually stand next to each other and they'll look like 8s.
And your credentials are???? Yup, just what I thought, 0.0
Bring something to the table when you talk out of your A**.
"On an individual level they are unremarkable, all things considered. Bordering on G League for their cohort".
Agreed, at least regarding the Young twins. The Sahlmans, especially Colin (although Aaron's 1:48 800m suggests he has similar bottom-end speed), have demonstrated superior natural speed and have longer legs/strides, which bodes well for development at the next level, i.e. kicking off a fast pace, superior speed endurance, etc.
Leo has some speed, but Lex seems to run all out from the gun. I think you hit the nail on the head: They're A-tier talent with S-tier training through high school; Nico probably something like S and B+, respectively, which would explain why Leo and Lex may run faster PRs in high school, but I'd bet that they won't come close to what Nico is doing now on the track.
As much as I'm rooting for their success, objectively speaking, I think the Young twins will hit a wall rather early. I'd love to be proven wrong, though. Or maybe their true event is the 10k, who knows.
What about 4 out of 500? That's how many boys there were in my school and many of them had more natural speed than me. But there were only 2 of us in the whole school who got anywhere near out true potential in running.
The other guy went on to great things.
We're discussing the mile. Natural speed is much less important than natural endurance. You guys were probably in the 98th percentile of natural endurance, which is why you likely stuck with running (and thrived). You can give me a bunch of guys who could run faster for 15 or 20 second seconds, but would start walking after running a 75-second quarter, whereas you were able to run sub-5 doing 15-20mpw as a freshman.
No, natural speed and endurance are both critical to run 4:00 and the athlete that has the right balance between the 2 is extremely rare.
In the open division there have been maybe a total of 10 Americans that have run 3:50 or the 1500m equivalent, but you really believe that every year there are dozens of HS kids that could do it? The early start will result in a fast HS frosh but that’s about it. Probably the only US HS kid capable of ever running 3:50 was Kessler.
How much of the top talent in the US goes to distance running? I'd ballpark it at less than 1%, but maybe a bit more in the past few years. I think there are at least 10 Kesslers in HS out there right now who are just not running. They may not even be active at all, but they have the genetic ability to run 3:50. If someone like Hocker, Fisher, Kessler, etc got 4 years of training like the NP kids do, I think they're under 3:50. The two best distance runners the US has ever had were playing soccer in high school, how many more guys are good soccer players but could be great distance runners? Everyone has a story about a soccer guy coming out in the off season and dropping a 1:5x 800 off of soccer training. Almost all of the talent in the US goes to basketball, soccer, football, and a few other sports depending on the place. If all those kids were running from a young age, I think some of them could drop a 3:50.
You think an early start would only result in a fast frosh? Do you think if Jakob had started running as a 14 year old, he'd have an Olympic Gold right now? Do you think he'd still have run 3:30 at 19? No shot. His early start is the reason he's at the top of the sport right now.
There are Africans who say they ran 5+ miles a day to get to and from school since they were kids, and they often credit it to their running success. Are they all wrong? If Geb had taken a bus to school and only started running when he was 14, would he have run 26:22? No shot.
With maybe one or two exceptions, every high schooler that’s broken 4 has had immense talent.
I cannot anyone, especially a high schooler, break 4 without amazing talent.
Bruh come tf on that's the only thing you respond to? I mean every high schooler to break 4 has amazing talent, but I don't think Tim Danielson/Michael Slagowski were on the same talent level as Fisher, Ryun, Webb, Kessler, and most of the other guys on the list.