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Analysis on why Putin could up 10 million Russians and it would make no long term difference to their success (or laxk
"The Russian military is not currently equipped to rapidly and effectively deploy 300,000 reservists," said Alex Lord, Europe and Eurasia specialist at the Sibylline strategic analysis firm in London.
"In practice, they don't have enough modern equipment ... for that many new troops," said Jakub Janovsky, a military analyst who contributes to the Oryx blog.
"Neither the extra officers nor facilities necessary for a mass mobilization exist now in Russia," said Trent Telenko, a former quality control auditor for the US' Defense Contract Management Agency who has studied Russian logistics.
Lord, at Sibylline, said it would take at least three months to gather, train and deploy Russian reservists.
"At which time we will be in the depths of a Ukrainian winter," Lord said. "As such, we're unlikely to see an influx of reservists have a serious impact on the battlefield until spring 2023 -- and even then they are likely to be poorly trained and ill-equipped."
Vladimir Putin can call up all the troops he wants, but Russia has no way of getting those new troops the training and weapons they need to fight in Ukraine any time soon.
Analysis on why Putin could up 10 million Russians and it would make no long term difference to their success (or laxk
"The Russian military is not currently equipped to rapidly and effectively deploy 300,000 reservists," said Alex Lord, Europe and Eurasia specialist at the Sibylline strategic analysis firm in London.
"In practice, they don't have enough modern equipment ... for that many new troops," said Jakub Janovsky, a military analyst who contributes to the Oryx blog.
"Neither the extra officers nor facilities necessary for a mass mobilization exist now in Russia," said Trent Telenko, a former quality control auditor for the US' Defense Contract Management Agency who has studied Russian logistics.
Lord, at Sibylline, said it would take at least three months to gather, train and deploy Russian reservists.
"At which time we will be in the depths of a Ukrainian winter," Lord said. "As such, we're unlikely to see an influx of reservists have a serious impact on the battlefield until spring 2023 -- and even then they are likely to be poorly trained and ill-equipped."
I can't see Russia mounting a serious new offensive till spring. At which time, Ukraine will have dug-in and fortified their defensive positions. Russian soldiers will be walking into a meat grinder.
The Russian mass draft seems to have quieted down the Putinbois. I'm guessing that living in a russian tent in the woods of eastern Ukraine in December isn't quite as nice as the inside of a St. Petersburg troll farm.
It sounds hopeless for Russia in the Western Media, maybe Putin should just use all his Nukes and then History will show he went out fighting, which is ALWAYS Honorable.
I think Russia is winning though, so maybe Nukes will not be necessary
It sounds hopeless for Russia in the Western Media, maybe Putin should just use all his Nukes and then History will show he went out fighting, which is ALWAYS Honorable.
I think Russia is winning though, so maybe Nukes will not be necessary
If that's what winning looks like, I don't want to see losing. But I guess the Russians being in full retreat looks like "winning" to some people.
Biden’s comments highlight US hypocrisy on the issue as Washington currently occupies a major portion of eastern Syria despite the Syrian government’s opposition.The US also supports Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and its blockade of Gaza, and Saudi Arabia’s war and blockade on its neighbor Yemen.
Biden’s comments highlight US hypocrisy on the issue as Washington currently occupies a major portion of eastern Syria despite the Syrian government’s opposition.The US also supports Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and its blockade of Gaza, and Saudi Arabia’s war and blockade on its neighbor Yemen.
Leaving aside the question of whether all of those situations are examples of hypocrisy or, at least in some cases, situations with critical distinctions, US citizens have a choice of agreeing with their country when right, and disagreeing when wrong, or never supporting it until there are zero positions that are wrong or hypocritical. The latter approach is dysfunctional and unworkable, so most of us choose the former.
For example, I disagree with the US support for Israel's occupation of the West Bank and annexation of Palestinian territory. Moreover, I disagree with Israel's treatment of Palestinians and have said so on this website and others. But I think they are correct in supporting Ukraine against Russia, and more broadly in supporting Ukraine's desire for closer ties with the EU instead of Russia, which always will treatment as a Russ vassal state.
It sounds hopeless for Russia in the Western Media, maybe Putin should just use all his Nukes and then History will show he went out fighting, which is ALWAYS Honorable.
I think Russia is winning though, so maybe Nukes will not be necessary
Actually, in that scenario, the last history book ever written will have been written in September, 2022. It will not mention any nuclear strike. And nobody will ever read it.
Actually, in that scenario, the last history book ever written will have been written in September, 2022. It will not mention any nuclear strike. And nobody will ever read it.
Babylon the Great, destroyed in one hour of one day, in the Book of Revelation, sounds a lot like the USA. Russia has the tech to win a first strike against the USA, and survive intact enough to prosper. Doubtful Biden could respond within an half an hour, much less 3 minutes, to authorize a counter launch response.
Actually, in that scenario, the last history book ever written will have been written in September, 2022. It will not mention any nuclear strike. And nobody will ever read it.
Babylon the Great, destroyed in one hour of one day, in the Book of Revelation, sounds a lot like the USA. Russia has the tech to win a first strike against the USA, and survive intact enough to prosper. Doubtful Biden could respond within an half an hour, much less 3 minutes, to authorize a counter launch response.
Wishful thinking on your part. But consider that if they maintain their nuclear arsenal and train their technicians with the care and diligence with which they train and equip their army, the real danger is self-harm.
Actually, in that scenario, the last history book ever written will have been written in September, 2022. It will not mention any nuclear strike. And nobody will ever read it.
Babylon the Great, destroyed in one hour of one day, in the Book of Revelation, sounds a lot like the USA. Russia has the tech to win a first strike against the USA, and survive intact enough to prosper. Doubtful Biden could respond within an half an hour, much less 3 minutes, to authorize a counter launch response.
Russia (Putin) can hardly wait test out nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Russians despise Ukrainians, would love to kill tens of thousands more of them, and Putin would love to start showing whatever Russian military power there is.
Russia (Putin) can hardly wait test out nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Russians despise Ukrainians, would love to kill tens of thousands more of them, and Putin would love to start showing whatever Russian military power there is.
Actually, in that scenario, the last history book ever written will have been written in September, 2022. It will not mention any nuclear strike. And nobody will ever read it.
Babylon the Great, destroyed in one hour of one day, in the Book of Revelation, sounds a lot like the USA. Russia has the tech to win a first strike against the USA, and survive intact enough to prosper. Doubtful Biden could respond within an half an hour, much less 3 minutes, to authorize a counter launch response.
You clearly don't understand how the US Nuclear Triad works to deter a first strike against us.
Imagine you are one of the men that has just been mobilized and rushed to the front lines at the same time Putin says he prepared to use Nukes.
Hey, sounds great vlad! You are such a great leader. Wait til I get there and fire some tactical nukes off. We can duck and cover.
Repeatedly I think the experts have misjudged the overall decency of the broader Russian population. Throughout the war when experts believed the citizens would rise up when they saw thousands of sons coming home in body bags, nothing of the sort happened. Instead, Russian citizens are content going about their daily lives. Now that the mobilization has taken place you are seeing some feeble street "protests" but Putin knows his people well and knows they inconsequential. If you look at the protests half the people are taking selfie videos for their Tik Tok. I suspect many of those mobilized are promising some nice Ukrainian appliances for Momma and she is cool with the military sacrifices of the husbands to score those.
Let's review a few quick takes from yesterday's ISW update:
The Kremlin’s heavy-handed approach to partial mobilization may successfully meet the Kremlin’s internal quota of mobilized personnel but is unlikely to generate effective soldiers and is prompting significant domestic backlash for little gain.
The Kremlin is openly not adhering to its promised conditions for partial mobilization just 24 hours after its September 21 declaration.
Kremlin quotas will likely force local officials to mobilize men regardless of their military status.
The Kremlin will also likely mobilize ethnically non-Russian and immigrant communities at a disproportionate rate.
The Kremlin’s heavy-handed approach to mobilization is prompting public anger and distrust across Russia.
Actually, in that scenario, the last history book ever written will have been written in September, 2022. It will not mention any nuclear strike. And nobody will ever read it.
Babylon the Great, destroyed in one hour of one day, in the Book of Revelation, sounds a lot like the USA. Russia has the tech to win a first strike against the USA, and survive intact enough to prosper. Doubtful Biden could respond within an half an hour, much less 3 minutes, to authorize a counter launch response.
Russia (Putin) can hardly wait test out nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Russians despise Ukrainians, would love to kill tens of thousands more of them, and Putin would love to start showing whatever Russian military power there is.
That's a sick fantasy of yours. Stick to reality.
Lolly- remember these people are lunatics.
Imagine losing 1/4 of your property to your neighbor in a dispute, while telling the rest of the neighborhood you’re winning. Talking trash the whole time. LOL!
And the whole neighborhood can see that the dlckhead across the street (who’s always sticking his nose in everyone’s business, and has been oddly hanging out in your garage for years now) is the only reason you’re even fighting at all. LOL
