Who is the #1 US boys teenage distance prospect- C. or A. Sahlman, Leo, Lex or Nico Young, Parker Wolfe, or Hobbs Kessler?

It's a slow week in the LRC editorial bureau when Robbie pumps out a masturbatory topic like this. It's the running equivalent to the baseball commentator's "should Pete Rose be in the HOF?"

Not to diss yet another fun topic related to the NB boys, but what I think often gets lost/missed in all the hoopla and discussion of each of their stars is the sheer impossibility of their collective and simultaneous brilliance.

For all the mounting track achievements Colin, Leo, Lex, and Aaron are compiling, none thus far have produced what could be described as transformative racing outcomes on the oval; the kind that electrify aficionados while abruptly elevating the possibilities of what can actually be achieved on the track (think Ryun, Lindgren, Webb, Fernandez, Verzbicas, Kessler, et al).

For now, each of the four Newbury stars could be described so far as generational talents; the kind that might individually come along during a given 4-year high school cycle, or even a 10+ year stretch, depending on the era. Individual giants that arguably vie for historical relevancy with the likes of a Liquori, or Pre, Virgin, Hulst, Nelson, Ritzenhein, Rupp, Solinsky, Fisher, Hunter, Nico Young, etc. etc.

What truly makes Newbury's 'Big 4' so compelling is that the fact that -yes- here we have the nucleus of indisputably the greatest U.S. prep cross-country team in high school history, but even more so, we have four generational talents all running together on ONE team at the SAME time (with any of the four having the potential to break through this season or next with a transformative track performance; one so stellar it decisively raises the bar for what is realistically possible for the entire sport). The equivalent of four Liquoris, Virgins, Hulsts, Nelsons, et al., on the same team at the same time, with still more room to grow into four Lindgrens, Fernandez's, etc. Wow.

(Yes, the Ingebrigtsen brothers are undeniably much more collectively and individually accomplished than the Newbury 4-along with Nico-are and perhaps ever will be, but they did not compete together on one prep team)

Even for grizzled, rather jaded old fans of the sport, it really strains the mind to grasp what Newbury has actualized these last couple of years. We are witnessing the two greatest sets of high school racing brothers in U.S. history, competing together at the very same time on the very same team. One set that could finish their high school careers (Colin and Aaron) both racing well under 4:00 and at least 8:35 in the full 2-mile; the other (Leo and Lex) both blazing close to or under 8:30 2-miles and 13:30-35 5000s. To compound the sheer unlikelihood of this ever happening in any part of the theoretical multiverse, all four have been relatively healthy their prep careers (knock on wood); all are coached by a passionate individual who seems exceptionally well-suited to nurture and support their individual developments; they live and train in an area, environment, and state ideally suited to promote their development year-round; all four had the inspirational and practical advantage of developing under an older teammate/brother in Nico who was both team-oriented, hard-working, and oh, also won the National Nike-Cross Championship; all four seem relatively level-headed and supportive of each other's success.

What we have here-as others have noted-is the winning of the All-Galaxy Powerball prize by Sean Brosnan in terms of being gifted with raw talent to coach. And he has-whatever your personal feelings for the fellow-done a marvelous job of doing whatever he can to develop, refine, and inspire that talent. To have all this come together in one place within one moment in time...it strains credulity. Throw in a surrounding cast of state and/or national age-group talent into the mix; the Aschbrenners, Applefords, Goldsteins, Martinez's, etc., and it just makes the phenomenon even more incredible. Collectively, the Newbury 'Big 4' are in the process -I'd argue- of becoming more than generational or even transformative; they are simply sui generis in U.S. annals. Unique. One of a historical kind.

For real, it's super exciting that it's happening but kinda sad that something like this isn't gonna happen again in my lifetime. That said, I'm happy to be along for the ride :)

runningfan87 wrote:

Going with Colin Sahlman. How many kids have gone sub 4 and were the best XC runner in the country that same year? Hunter, Fisher, and him?

Webb would have if it were not for him racing the greatest high school XC runner of all time.

Could have, should have, would have. Webb was a good XC runner but not on the level of these kids. His mile is a whole different story though.

Webb had just completed a hero workout to prepare him for his big goal, breaking Ryun's record in the spring, shortly before Footlocker, which is part of the reason he couldn't keep up with Ritz. Why he was doing that kind of incredible workout just before Footlocker, I have no idea, but the truth is that he set a McAlpine course record for the South region that year and then went on to win the Great Lakes xc regional (or whatever one Michigan runs in) as a freshman.

He was a very, very good xc runner and later on beat Ritz in pr's for both at the time in the 10000m as a pro. He had 13:10/27:34 pr's. And even in the winter of his senior year of hs, he ran an easy 8:45 indoors, beating a sub-4 guy (Brannen) by 14 seconds. Of course, Ritz was a phenomenal xc runner, took third that winter at junior world xc, two spots ahead of Matt Tegenkamp, who was a college freshman, and ran 13:44.7 for 5000m on the track.

Right now, these guys are being coached like they are in a very good college program and it shows. 3:58/7:57/8:03 with the fourth guy on the shelf and capable of mid-7:50s when healthy. One of these guys is a senior. That is a sensational team, only bettered at this age by a St. Patrick's of Kenya team or maybe a top Japanese high school team at 5000m.

The plural of Fernandez is Fernandezes. The plural of Martinez is Martinezes.

runningfan87 wrote:

Going with Colin Sahlman. How many kids have gone sub 4 and were the best XC runner in the country that same year? Hunter, Fisher, and him?

Young twins are going to be incredible as well, I could see them just obliterating the record books next year.

And LV. That’s 4 on the last 10 -11 years, so it’s not uncommon at all.

Webb had incredible range but he still wouldn’t have beaten Ritz at FL. Also keep in mind that Ritz beat Tegenkamp at FL ‘99 and might’ve been better his senior year of HS than Teg as a college freshman so not too surprising that Ritz beat him at World juniors.

These NBP kids are just something else. Like you said, Brosnan is basically coaching them like a D1 coach at a solid college program. Hopefully they all stay healthy through the spring because I have a feeling we’re going to see some records fall.

Jonathan Commentor wrote:

I think the overall talent-for-age list of the current generation of these distance guys is:

Leonard/Lexington Young

Hobbs Kessler

Aaron Sahlman

Colin Sahlman

Nico Young (are we including him in this?)

Parker Wolfe

I know this probably sounds pretty cocky coming from a barely sub-5 guy but compared to the others on this list... Parker Wolfe, hasn't really done all that much... still, a national champion who's seeming to accomplish more and more in college

3:34 at 18 is on another stratosphere. It’s quite likely none of the other guys on that list will ever run a 3:34 in their career. Not to mention, Lex/Leo were running age group track at 8. Hobbs didn’t start running seriously until 15. And then 2 years later 3:34.

You also have to put Rheinhardt on that last. 4:01 mile as a sophomore. Ran a 8:47 3200m pacing a teammate last year and a 1:51 in March in flats. His combination of speed / strength probably makes him at least even with Colin in the mile.

Hearing the Newbury kids are or were running 60 miles per week. Anyone know what kind of mileage Kessler and Wolfe are putting in?

What excites me as much as what the "NP 4" are doing is the implications for h.s. running nationwide. I think Brosnan would agree that there are other h.s. coaches with as much knowledge as he has. But he's building a program that will churn out quality runners year after year. Of course these four are a perfect storm and probably won't be duplicated. I like the fact that he's been doing Monday conference or zoom meetings with other coaches. Beyond the Xs and Os of training I'm sure they talk about all the things that go into a successful program- the buy in of parents and school administration, the development of pre- h.s. running programs., etc. There's no question that NP's success has piqued the interest of many other coaches. As a result the bar will continue to be raised in many other places besides NP.

Whatever one thinks of Brosnan's personality, politics, or whatever, I think his passion has really resonated with many others and so props to him.

greg kirby wrote:

Lenny Leonard wrote:

As fast as Colin has run, his form just looks so wackadoo that I am hesitant to project him too much beyond where he is. Of course, I was wrong about Grant Fisher, whose stride and upper body always seem uneconomical to my eyes.

Fisher and Sahlman are two completely different runners. Fisher has a choppy borderline heel-striking stride, which, I agree, is uneconomical. He's clearly making the most out of it, though. C. Sahlman has a massive stride, a clear forefoot foot-strike, and will only improve as he fills out and strengthens his hip abductors and core muscles. He is one of the skinniest dudes I've seen run this fast and he still has so many clear areas to improve on.

kiprop is like 6’1 130 lmao

Lenny Leonard wrote:

When I read between the lines in what Sean Brosnan has said in interviews, he seems to think Aaron Sahlman has the most speed of the bunch and perhaps the most untapped potential. That's my vote.

As fast as Colin has run, his form just looks so wackadoo that I am hesitant to project him too much beyond where he is. Of course, I was wrong about Grant Fisher, whose stride and upper body always seem uneconomical to my eyes.

ever see nicos form in high school? vs now

Gavin Sherry. Ran 4:05 4:06 in high school only races. Throw him in with pros he’s running under 4. 4:01 1600 with no one else within a few seconds outdoors last year. Sure, not his best day getting third at nationals, but no one in New England has touched him in cross country for a few years on some of the country’s toughest courses.

Newbury Park are basically training like a pro group with a bunch of really fast guys. Gavin is training with his brother like a fast high schooler trains. Has more room to grow. Maybe he won’t have the fastest time at the end of outdoor, but he will be under 8:42 and 3:59 and in 4 years in college he will be the best all around runner of the class.

Nico just ran 3:56, which converts to around 3:38 for the 1500, as a 19 year old. And I think most people consider him to have the least amount of speed out of all the people on that list. It's easy to see Nico knocking off another 4 seconds at his peak when he's 23-24, and I can definitely see Colin Sahlman getting under 3:34 if he maintains a good progression as well.

Man I hope so, I’ll be rooting for him. He needs a big break this spring but I agree in the right race he should break 4. He’ll be a great addition to Stanford’s squad and should make an immediate impact

You've basically just described Hobbs Kessler last year

Are we also forgetting Tewalt. He had the U20 record until Wolfe broke it