Millrose Men's 3000

rhimby wrote:

Wise Old Man wrote:

This looks like an NCAA all-star final over the last few years, and Hocker is simply too fast over the last 400 to lose to any of these guys at a pace any of them are capable of running now (7:37 or slower). Hocker wins with his kick at just under 7:40 and Beamish is 2nd and then the rest.

I agree, I think Hocker takes it unless he's really out of shape. None of these guys can run low 7:30, which is what it would take to run the legs off of Hocker. Beamish also has a sneaky kick, so I could see him in second and maybe challenging for first.

Thank you. Have we forgotten that Hocker has leveled up? This is an international B race with current and former college greats. Hocker is an international rising star. If he’s fit, he wins this with ease. You can debate if Hocker would beat Kerr in the mile, but this 3000 was a race Hocker probably would have won last indoor season and that was an eternity ago in his running life. Hocker is a major leaguer and the rest of these guys are AAA players with a few who might have a shot someday if things break their way.

1. Cole Hocker 7:37.6

2. Cooper Teare 7:38.8

3. Geordie Beamish 7:39.1

4. Luis Grijalva 7:40.8

5. Nico Young 7:41.3

6. Conner Mantz 7:42.0

7. Wesley Kiptoo 7:44.5

8. Drew Hunter 7:45.7

9. James West 7:46.2

10. Morgan Beadlescomb 7:47.0

11. John Gay 7:48.4

12. Sam Parsons 7:49.6

13. Charles Hicks 7:50.0

John Wesley Harding wrote:

1. Cole Hocker 7:37.6

2. Cooper Teare 7:38.8

3. Geordie Beamish 7:39.1

4. Luis Grijalva 7:40.8

5. Nico Young 7:41.3

6. Conner Mantz 7:42.0

7. Wesley Kiptoo 7:44.5

8. Drew Hunter 7:45.7

9. James West 7:46.2

10. Morgan Beadlescomb 7:47.0

11. John Gay 7:48.4

12. Sam Parsons 7:49.6

13. Charles Hicks 7:50.0

Very reasonable. I’d flip Teare and Beamish and have Nico beating Grijalva, but Hocker should be favored. If we knew they all were at peak readiness it would be a foregone conclusion. His talent level, even at this distance, far exceeds the others. This is probably true up through 5K.

I normally have strong opinions but not this time. I can see nearly every guy winning this.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

1. Cole Hocker 7:37.6

2. Cooper Teare 7:38.8

3. Geordie Beamish 7:39.1

4. Luis Grijalva 7:40.8

5. Nico Young 7:41.3

6. Conner Mantz 7:42.0

7. Wesley Kiptoo 7:44.5

8. Drew Hunter 7:45.7

9. James West 7:46.2

10. Morgan Beadlescomb 7:47.0

11. John Gay 7:48.4

12. Sam Parsons 7:49.6

13. Charles Hicks 7:50.0

Hicks top-6!

Hunter, Young, Beamish.

Drew has built really well over the past five months.

Wesley Kiptoo 7:38.77

Geordie Beamish 7:41.01

Cooper Teare 7:41.09

Cole Hocker 7:41.86

Conner Mantz 7:45.47

Luis Grijalva 7:45.75

John Gay 7:46.16

Eric Jenkins 7:47.41

Morgan Beadlsecomb 7:47.58

Drew Hunter 7:47.68

Nico Young 7:49.14

James West 7:50.97

Sam Parsons 7:51.03

Charles Hicks 7:51.96

I think that Nico's 4:02 was more of an outlier than the new norm. I just can't see him running into the low 7:40s and challenging the United States collegiate record. Maybe it's cause I'm not American. It's probably that. Kiptoo is going to take it out hard, as there'd be no one to stop him but Mantz. Eventually Mantz tires, leaving Kiptoo to win the race.

Final two laps for all athletes:

Kiptoo 60.18

Beamish 56.34

Teare 54.99

Hocker 55.71

Mantz 59.72

Gay 57.69

Jenkins 57.41

Beadlescomb 59.90

Hunter 56.78

Young 60.87

West 52.71 (he rabbits a lot of the time, and has shown that he can handle a fast 3K on multiple occasions. Don't forget he has a 1:48 indoor 800 to his name, that's equivalent to about a 1:46 outdoors. So he's got speed and I think that if he's near the rear of the race he's gonna finish well)

Parsons 62.67

Hicks 59.46

Hmm allow me to critique. I think you're giving Kiptoo too much credit. He only has the 5th best 5k in the field, and I think it's unlikely that he has the wheels to beat most of these guys over the shorter 3k distance. He only ran a 4:02 mile (at sea level) a few days ago.

Also you think West is going to close in 52 for third last???

Hocker 7:34.47 (4:08-5:10) -> moves at 2K, drops a 2:24 to close the race.

West 7:40.01

Young 7:40.06

Kiptoo 7:40.59

Teare 7:40.88

Hicks 7:46.93

Grijalva 7:47.08

Parsons 7:48.82

Mantz 7:51.33

Also rans....

Kiptoo beats Young by 10 seconds? Seriously??? This set of predictions is bonkers. Again, I remind you that this looks like a fantasy NCAA indoor championship for the last few years. One year ago Hocker won the championship pretty convincingly and right after doubling back. That was BEFORE he fully transformed into America’s best middle distance runner. The 3000 is comfortably within his range and he is flat out on another level from the rest of these guys if he’s fit and healthy. If so, he wins this race easily. Kiptoo is never going to beat a fit Hocker at 3K, never……

Kiptoo just ran 4:01 at sea level. Young ran 4:02 at altitude. I know that Kiptoo gets better as the distance gets longer but based on that result alone I would put Kiptoo a bit further down the list. Beamish beat him over 5,000m in December. Beamish has gotten sharper since then and he is more of a miler. Even if Kiptoo takes it out hard I don't see him running away from this field. Especially not after a 4:01. The 4:01 might be misleading. Maybe a workout or rust-buster. But if it was an honest effort I don't see him winning this race.

Wesley Kiptoo ran 13:14 5000m 2 months ago - indoors. That's just 2 seconds slower than Cooper Teare last summer, but also 4 seconds faster than Cole Hockers PB.

He might not beat Beamish, Hocker and Teare in 3k, but he surely will lead 2nd tier in this race.

Just reminding all of you that Hocker was 4th in the 5000 last year at NCAAs just 90 minutes after winning the 1500. He beat Kiptoo in that race by 12 seconds. Hocker is a world level talent and Kiptoo is a great college runner. There’s no comparison. Same really applies to Hocker and everybody else in this field. Hocker should be racing a 3000 against the likes of JI and Cheptegei. That’s his actual level.

Master of Lolly wrote:

Wesley Kiptoo ran 13:14 5000m 2 months ago - indoors. That's just 2 seconds slower than Cooper Teare last summer, but also 4 seconds faster than Cole Hockers PB.

He might not beat Beamish, Hocker and Teare in 3k, but he surely will lead 2nd tier in this race.

Hocker’s PB came 90 min after winning an epic 1500 and before his full blossoming as a world level talent before our eyes. Do you really think 13:18 represents Hocker’s 5K ability? If he fit, rested, and focused, he’s running << 13:10. Honestly, I’m pretty sure he’d beat Chelimo and Fisher if he cared to, but he shouldn’t because he’s even more competitive at the WC level in the 1500. He’s going to running 3:28 this summer for sure.

Anything less than 1st would be a disappointment for Hocker. He has publicly stated that he has his sights set on becoming the best middle distance runner in the world. Winning this race should be no problem for him.

te5n1k wrote:

i think hocker (if hes in shape) and beamish (ran a fast 5k a month or two ago and is more of a miler anyway) would be the favorites. then teare, nico and maybe hunter (even tho i question how his success recently on the roads will transfer over to the track). grijalva seems to be slower than nico over short distances right now and mantz is obviously on a good run, but 3k has never been his specialty. wouldnt be too shocked if one of them took it tho.

Agree, without Hocker, Beamish would be a heavy favorite. It will be interesting to see what kind of shape Hocker is.

jiggymeister wrote:

Garbage Truck Driver wrote:

The four with the most elite results are Beamish, Hocker, Teare, and Kiptoo.

Drew Hunter

3000m: 7:39.85

Yeah that's out of context. I stated that they were in the last year and all over 1200 points according to world athletics. Drew Hunter has done neither. He is also quite a bit of time away from a strong performance. He should not be considered a favorite to win. Hopefully he has a good performance this weekend.

Kiptoo will probably lead for 2400 then fade to 5th.

Beamish

Hocker

Teare

Young

Kiptoo

Mantz

Hunter hasn’t shown he is currently in shape to be top 5.

Has young ever beaten Kiptoo head to head?