This is funny because, and Im not holding this against you two personally, what Ive heard from Hocker fans generally contradicts this.
All last year I kept hearing that Hocker is NOT a 3:35 guy and is actually good for 3:30 or 3:29 even though he has never run that.
Back to what you're saying, it doesnt make a difference what a runner has run before. Even if its someones first time running an event you can objectively assess how good the pacing was because we know what ideal pacing looks like generally in every event. It doesnt matter that Hocker's pb was 3:35 going into the olympic final. When you look at the splits from both his 3:35 race and his 3:31 race it is evident that his pacing was not good and therefore he could have run faster. If someone runs a 5k for the first time and splits a final 200m in 26 seconds what's that indicate? Bad pacing, not "wow what a good kick". If someone runs a 400 for the first time and positive splits over 4 seconds, what's that indicate? Bad pacing, not "gee you need to work on your kick".