Jakob will. He has his Olympic gold. Now he wants a WR or three. Look for very strong runs at 1500, 3000, and 5000 in 2022. Given his age, he should prioritize the 1500 then work his way up. I'm not necessarily predicting any WRs, but will go on record with predicting 3:26 high, 7:23, 12:39 and at least one gold in Eugene. If he can post a 1:45 or better 800 before Pre, we'll know it's game on for a 1500/mile WR.
Both have 3:27 ability in a near-perfect race. 3:26 might require absolute perfection with the pacing and the all-important segment from 900-1300. Jakob is likely to let Tim drive the action there so is he willing to sacrifice some chance of winning when he can hold something in reserve?
runner69 wrote:
High hopes wrote:
I doubt it. Finding another 2 seconds at their level is ridiculously hard. Has anyone ran sub-3:28 without any pretty credible doping allegations floating around them?
Lagat. There are noncredible doping allegations though.
Didn't Lagat have a positive A sample? His B sample cam back negative if I remember correctly. I wouldn't call that noncredible.
- 3:27 high = Very likely
- 3:27:30-3:27:50 : Likely
- 3:27:00-3:27:30 : Somewhat likely.
- 3:26:50-3:26:99 : Chances are good, but I can't say it's likely
- 3:26:30-3:26:50 : Chances are there, but for me, it's unlikely
- 3:26:00-3:26:30 : Little chances, I would be very surprised, I'm not expecting it
- Sub 3:26:00 : Very little chances, I really doubt it will happen this year
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Both have 3:27 ability in a near-perfect race. 3:26 might require absolute perfection with the pacing and the all-important segment from 900-1300. Jakob is likely to let Tim drive the action there so is he willing to sacrifice some chance of winning when he can hold something in reserve?
Both Tim and Jakob could have run around one second faster in Tokyo if they had been able to go directly to the front starting from the outer lanes as they do in Monaco. And with good pacemaking. So at least Jakob was already in 3:27 shape last season.
If Jakob - as usual - comes out one level up in 2022 he can certainly run 3:26 in a fast, well paced time trial.
I don´t know if Timothy can still improve. He is 26 years now and haven´t improved much the last years.
RoadWarrior77 wrote:
Just a hypothetical. Feel free to discuss.
The difference between "can they do it?" and "will they do it?" is substantial. Look at the 5k over the last 15 years. Slow, slow, slow, then boom 12:46. Then slow, slow, slow, boom 12:43. Then times were even slower than before for a bit; boom--Cheptegei runs 12:35. Of course the 1500 is vastly different from the 5000, but keep in mind how large the difference between a regular race and a perfect race can be, and you never know when you're going to see the latter until it hits.
I still remember that towards the beginning of Kiprop's career, he was seen as more of a "tactical racer". Not that his tactics were ever good, but the idea was that he was best in a slow race. I believe his PR was 3:31 for a while. Then he goes 3:29, 3:28, 3:26, and he's seen as a top-end-speed guy. Really, he likely always had abilities in the 3:26-3:28 ballpark, which is probably how he kept winning all those 3:31+ races with poor tactics.
Between the two of them, Cheruiyot and Ingebrigtsen have run 3:28 a total of six times. Maybe they've happened to have their top form and perfect conditions several times over the past couple years. But more likely, the lightning hasn't yet struck--and may never do so. If it does, I could see them both going 3:24.
rtkjnhtjt wrote:
runner69 wrote:
Lagat. There are noncredible doping allegations though.
Didn't Lagat have a positive A sample? His B sample cam back negative if I remember correctly. I wouldn't call that noncredible.
His A sample also came back negative when they didn’t F up the testing of it.
Kobbs Hessler wrote:
Jakob will. He has his Olympic gold. Now he wants a WR or three. Look for very strong runs at 1500, 3000, and 5000 in 2022. Given his age, he should prioritize the 1500 then work his way up. I'm not necessarily predicting any WRs, but will go on record with predicting 3:26 high, 7:23, 12:39 and at least one gold in Eugene. If he can post a 1:45 or better 800 before Pre, we'll know it's game on for a 1500/mile WR.
That 7:23 is a big call considering the all-time greats that haven't even got within 2 seconds of that, can't see it myself but you never know.
RoadWarrior77 wrote:
Just a hypothetical. Feel free to discuss.
If you talking about the wr or something close, I say very doubtful. 2.3 seconds is an eternity at this level. Tim has had many bites at the apple and no reason to think he’s going to level up at age 26. Jakob is a bit harder to predict, but I say no. Hocker will run 3:28 before either of these two run 3:26.
No, neither one of them is capable of going under 3:28. Let's be real, they're just a couple of 3:28 guys, not 3:26 guys and especially not 3:25 guys.
Nothing wrong with that, I love Timothy, but not every athlete is going to be a Cheptegei or a Kiplimo.
A lot of Letsrun posters overestimate the quality of the middledistance field right now by a lot (probably due to racism). Even with the help of supershoes and supertracks and superpacers, no miler is currently anywhere near being a threat to any world record. Theres huge leaps being made in a ton of disciplines thanks to talented athletes taking advantage of the new technology, but the 1500 is one of those events thats been lagging behind the rest.
Kobbs Hessler wrote:
Jakob will. He has his Olympic gold. Now he wants a WR or three. Look for very strong runs at 1500, 3000, and 5000 in 2022. Given his age, he should prioritize the 1500 then work his way up. I'm not necessarily predicting any WRs, but will go on record with predicting 3:26 high, 7:23, 12:39 and at least one gold in Eugene. If he can post a 1:45 or better 800 before Pre, we'll know it's game on for a 1500/mile WR.
Me when I dont know anything about track
OozmaKappa wrote:
Kobbs Hessler wrote:
Jakob will. He has his Olympic gold. Now he wants a WR or three. Look for very strong runs at 1500, 3000, and 5000 in 2022. Given his age, he should prioritize the 1500 then work his way up. I'm not necessarily predicting any WRs, but will go on record with predicting 3:26 high, 7:23, 12:39 and at least one gold in Eugene. If he can post a 1:45 or better 800 before Pre, we'll know it's game on for a 1500/mile WR.
Me when I dont know anything about track
Lol. Your comically obsessive Jakob hate is well known here and appropriately discounted by everyone. Your mea culpa this summer will be hysterical, assuming you have the honor to do so.
I actually expect at least one of them to run 3:26 within the next Olympic cycle at some point. Both have had 3:28-3:29 runs that suggest they may be capable of more, especially at Monaco with a pacer going through in 1:49-1:50. I also think the 1500 is ready for a breakthrough. However I don’t believe either of them will hit a 3:24 or 3:25. Personally I expect one of the other young talents like Hocker, Kerr, Kessler, Etiang, or someone as yet unknown to break the record. These two are too close to their peak to do so.
Kobbs Hessler wrote:
OozmaKappa wrote:
Me when I dont know anything about track
Lol. Your comically obsessive Jakob hate is well known here and appropriately discounted by everyone. Your mea culpa this summer will be hysterical, assuming you have the honor to do so.
You literally just said you think Yakob in 2022 will:
1. Run 3:26
2. Run 7:23
3. Run 12:39
4. Win 2 (or more) gold medals at World Champs
I'm not even trolling when I say youre a delusional idiot. A double amputee could count with their fingers how many of your predictions will come true: 0. None of those things are happening.
Probably not this year. But I'd like to see both Tim and Jakob in a perfectly paced race where someone brings them through 800 in about 1:49-1:50 or even go further and bring them through 1100 in around 2:30 and lets see how fast they can get to sub-3:26
3:26/7:23/12:39 and 2+ World Gold?
Jakob has run 3:28.3/7:27/12:48 and has one Olympic gold and beat the best in the 5000m in the 12:48 easy win, plus he's 21. I don't see those goals as unrealistic at all for him. This is a World Champs year and he will probably be the favorite in the 1500 and 5000m, and if he wins just one, he'll have another in a couple years. He ran 3:28.32 in the Olympic final after rounds with no official pacers. He led the first lap. Dropping 1.4 seconds is highly, highly realistic. 12:39 is reasonable with a 12:48 guy who jogged it in at the end. 7:23 can surely be done by him if Getnet Wale can run 7:24 high indoors.
birdbeard wrote:
Morocco’s training groups were all pretty questionable. I would put money on El G doping. But who knows about anyone. I would like to think Lagat is clean, but watching some of his races as a young man at WSU it’s hard not to wonder how that guy ever got to be the 3:26/7:29/12:53, many time medalist and world champion that he became. I would be interested to hear what Lagat credits for his improvement. Working on form? Did he have injuries when younger? Did his training change?
Bernard Lagat tested positive for EPO, but the B sample came back negative. That's not quite fire, but that's a lot of smoke and there was certainly a lot of smoke about him being on HGH too in addition to EPO.
Gjert has already said that he thinks Jakob is at his peak due to the high mileage he has already run as a teenager and the toll that takes on his body. He said that if there are any improvements, they will come in very small increments and that the focus of Jakob's training will be holding his Olympic gold medal form through the next Olympic cycle, and possibly one more Olympic cycle after that. Jakob will be 27 in Paris 2028. Gjert has also said he can't see Jakob's career lasting until he is 30.
OozmaKappa wrote:
I'm not even trolling when I say youre a delusional idiot .
This is the issue with being a notorious troll; your word holds no weight.
Is this the first non-trolling post you've ever made?
And why do you hate Jakob? And always call him fat? Did he take your girl?
Wise Old Man wrote:
RoadWarrior77 wrote:
Just a hypothetical. Feel free to discuss.
If you talking about the wr or something close, I say very doubtful. 2.3 seconds is an eternity at this level. Tim has had many bites at the apple and no reason to think he’s going to level up at age 26. Jakob is a bit harder to predict, but I say no. Hocker will run 3:28 before either of these two run 3:26.
Tim’s best bite of the apple was in a weird pandemic year when his pacer took him out in 52-57…Last year he was hurt and training inconsistently yet could still run 3:28. With better pacing at his 2020 level and with health he can run 3:27. Mere 3:28 guys can’t solo within 1 second if their maximal performance like Tim did in Doha. Jakob ran very fast in Tokyo after the rounds and he also did even a little work in that race early on. Both guys will be thinking 3:27 in Monaco.