Most anticipated races in Jan: Hocker - Millrose, Katir - Karslruhe, NP - Sundown Track?

ijijij wrote:

freekiprop wrote:

“if he doesn’t break the world record it’s a disappointment”

Yep. It sucks to be at the top…

only being excited by races where you think that there may be crazy progression seems strange. cheptegei probably won’t progress any further, so now every future performance from one of the best to ever do it is not exciting and disappointing

also i think your idea that katir has much more in him is odd. his prs are hardly behind jakobs. do you think he ends up better than jakob? and yes, who the hell cares that he improved in the 10k, he’s a 12:50 guy who ran 27:45.

freekiprop wrote:

only being excited by races where you think that there may be crazy progression seems strange. cheptegei probably won’t progress any further, so now every future performance from one of the best to ever do it is not exciting and disappointing

also i think your idea that katir has much more in him is odd. his prs are hardly behind jakobs. do you think he ends up better than jakob? and yes, who the hell cares that he improved in the 10k, he’s a 12:50 guy who ran 27:45.

Maybe you are right. We shall see in a couple of weeks.

…and unfortunately yes, seeing Cheptegei run 12:38 would not be too exciting. Seeing him break 12:30 on the other hand, that would be exciting.

Seeing Jakob break 12:40 (or 3:30 indoor) would also be exciting.

ijijij wrote:

why bother wrote:

Meh. I'm more interested in seeing where Ingebritsen is form wise coming into a new season than what Katir does. Katir has run insane times and looked like a running god multiple times last season but couldn't even win his own national champs vs a 13:20 guy, let alone have an impact in a race that matters in tokyo.

Until he shows up at a major champs I'm not going to get too excited about any times he runs.

Ya, agreed

Same feeling about the NP guys. I bet none of them even make the WC this year.

Who cares if Katir improved his 10K time by 73s a couple of weeks ago.

It does not show any kind of improvement. What future improvement can we really expect from him?

Katir has run 3:28, 7:27, and 12:50. All are bona fide world class times. And despite those performances in 2021 he was a total non entity at the Olympics who got beat by Justyn Knight and had Grant Fisher closing on him.

Him running another crazy time will be cool and fun, but still nothing new from him. The important bit is that since he's run super quick in the past and still fizzled out, so him running fast early in the year doesn't tell me much. When I say I'm more interested in Jakob's shape, it's because Jakob's form is generally consistent. And after strong openings, he has been top 5 in every global final he's been in so far. So if he opens with something crazy, that could show something for the rest of the year. If he bombs, that would be quite uncharacteristic of him.

So yes, Katir is fun to watch, but just him being on the start line doesn't de facto make that race a must watch.

(Also interesting how Jakob isn't exciting to watch because at 21 he can't improve his 3:28 /12:48 that much, but 24 year old Katir with 3:28/12:50 is a must watch because he could improve so much!

why bother wrote:

(Also interesting how Jakob isn't exciting to watch because at 21 he can't improve his 3:28 /12:48 that much, but 24 year old Katir with 3:28/12:50 is a must watch because he could improve so much!

Jakob can and will improve on his 12:48. However, I don’t believe that he will improve his 1500m by much. Maybe one day he will dip fellow 3:28. He is unfortunately racing the 1500m in Lievin.

Katir is 23 y.o. And 55 weeks ago his PBs were 3:36/7:44/13:50 and 29:51 (10km)

55 weeks ago, Jakob’s PBs were 3:28/7:27/13:02 and 27:54

That’s the difference

ijijij wrote:

why bother wrote:

(Also interesting how Jakob isn't exciting to watch because at 21 he can't improve his 3:28 /12:48 that much, but 24 year old Katir with 3:28/12:50 is a must watch because he could improve so much!

Jakob can and will improve on his 12:48. However, I don’t believe that he will improve his 1500m by much. Maybe one day he will dip fellow 3:28. He is unfortunately racing the 1500m in Lievin.

Katir is 23 y.o. And 55 weeks ago his PBs were 3:36/7:44/13:50 and 29:51 (10km)

55 weeks ago, Jakob’s PBs were 3:28/7:27/13:02 and 27:54

That’s the difference

you’re out of your mind if you think katir will be better than jakob. thinking he has room for improvement that jakob doesn’t is unfounded. especially after the olympics

i also seriously question how you even enjoy the sport if a 12:38 is not exciting just because the person has done that before. bekele hasn’t been exciting since 2005? eliud may never be exciting again? but mo katir running ncaa times in the 10k is the biggest spectacle on planet earth?

ijijij wrote:

Before we get to the track races, we will see today if Katir improves on his 10k PB

A 6s improvement on his current PB would bring him to #2 European all time. I doubt that he gets Wanders’ ER (27:13). That seems out of reach.

Unfortunately, no 10km today. COVID won the day…

Maybe he will be more fresh for his 3000m

ijijij wrote:

ijijij wrote:

Before we get to the track races, we will see today if Katir improves on his 10k PB

A 6s improvement on his current PB would bring him to #2 European all time. I doubt that he gets Wanders’ ER (27:13). That seems out of reach.

Unfortunately, no 10km today. COVID won the day…

Maybe he will be more fresh for his 3000m

how much will he improve in this 3000 because once again, same pr as jakob

freekiprop wrote:

ijijij wrote:

Unfortunately, no 10km today. COVID won the day…

Maybe he will be more fresh for his 3000m

how much will he improve in this 3000 because once again, same pr as jakob

At a minimum, I expect him to break the ER in two weeks. Perhaps dip under 7:30. We shall see…

indoors is more predictable wrote:

ijijij wrote:

Ok, outdoor meet. Got it.

I guess we have to look at LV’s 2 mile HSR of 8:28.4 or GF’s AHSR of 8:34.4 (or whatever the 3200m equivalent is) instead

Yup, it's outdoors:

https://www.sundowntrack.com/

Forecast is now calling for strong winds but little (if any) rain that day. "

Who else (other than NP) will be at Sundown?

dullard wrote:

Is it just me or is Hocker's progression in the 1500 just as sus as Katir's?

It's way more suspect,11 secs in 1 year in the 1500 is taking it too far,this bring the same year he only had 1 test, yet Katir was tested way more.

Now the AIU are looking at him his magical improvement will stop as USADA can't protect him anymore.