Why aren't excess death totals plumeting?

The extra million people weren’t all going to drop dead in the next year or two if not for COVID. Their deaths will be averaged out over the next 15 or so years. That’s only a deviation of ~1000 deaths or so a week. No quite a “plummet”

It's more complicated because demographics play a role. This year the oldest boomers turn 75. So there will be an increase in deaths and the death rate over the next 10 years even without covid.

2600 bro wrote:

The extra million people weren’t all going to drop dead in the next year or two if not for COVID. Their deaths will be averaged out over the next 15 or so years. That’s only a deviation of ~1000 deaths or so a week. No quite a “plummet”

15????

I thought they were all geezers on their death beds? Did MSM lie to me again???

age wave wrote:

It's more complicated because demographics play a role. This year the oldest boomers turn 75. So there will be an increase in deaths and the death rate over the next 10 years even without covid.

right but shouldn't there be a sharp decline in the immediate short term? extra boomer deaths will add what 50k a year? 100k? we just had a million people die a year or two early. 50k isn't going to offset a million.

real data wrote:

age wave wrote:

It's more complicated because demographics play a role. This year the oldest boomers turn 75. So there will be an increase in deaths and the death rate over the next 10 years even without covid.

right but shouldn't there be a sharp decline in the immediate short term? extra boomer deaths will add what 50k a year? 100k? we just had a million people die a year or two early. 50k isn't going to offset a million.

How do you define sharp decline? Like I said. 1 million excess deaths averaged out over 15 years won’t seem very sharp!

sharp as in.....1 million fewer deaths in 2022.

Omicron isn;t killing anyone, all those old people who died the last two years were going to die by now anyway....we should see a straight line down waaaaay belw average very very soon.

A HUGE portion of the old sick people who were going to die this year are already dead. Coroners probably going to need a bailout!

real data wrote:

sharp as in.....1 million fewer deaths in 2022.

Omicron isn;t killing anyone, all those old people who died the last two years were going to die by now anyway....we should see a straight line down waaaaay belw average very very soon.

A HUGE portion of the old sick people who were going to die this year are already dead. Coroners probably going to need a bailout!

Oh I see. You’re trolling. Making the point that if all those people were gonna die anyway we’d see a huge drop. But they weren’t. That’s the point of “excess deaths.”

We should see a large spike last year over trend, which was going up but not abruptly, post-covid or post-vaccine or post-pandemic, whatever, we should see a drop for the reason of recent excess deaths of the 1 foot in the grave people. We are ahead of the curve on the foot in the grave deaths. Unless there are additional causes of "excess mortality" death of all causes should drop below the recent years prior to Covid/Vaccines. At the worst it should return

near the trend line.

IDK - Are the vaccines causing an increase in deaths?

Inquiring minds want to know wrote:

IDK - Are the vaccines causing an increase in deaths?

oh sh!t! we should tell somebody!

LikeAnsweringQuestionsOnAmazon. wrote:

We should see a large spike last year over trend, which was going up but not abruptly, post-covid or post-vaccine or post-pandemic, whatever, we should see a drop for the reason of recent excess deaths of the 1 foot in the grave people. We are ahead of the curve on the foot in the grave deaths. Unless there are additional causes of "excess mortality" death of all causes should drop below the recent years prior to Covid/Vaccines. At the worst it should return

near the trend line.

weren't like 99.9% of them 'one foot in the grave' types? no way we should be anywhere near the trendline once we passed the pandemic.......we're talking about a million people, ....chart should look like a huge divot very very soon.

real data wrote:

LikeAnsweringQuestionsOnAmazon. wrote:

We should see a large spike last year over trend, which was going up but not abruptly, post-covid or post-vaccine or post-pandemic, whatever, we should see a drop for the reason of recent excess deaths of the 1 foot in the grave people. We are ahead of the curve on the foot in the grave deaths. Unless there are additional causes of "excess mortality" death of all causes should drop below the recent years prior to Covid/Vaccines. At the worst it should return

near the trend line.

weren't like 99.9% of them 'one foot in the grave' types? no way we should be anywhere near the trendline once we passed the pandemic.......we're talking about a million people, ....chart should look like a huge divot very very soon.

I agree, but was taking a conservative approach.

Oops I said 'conservative' ...thread jack incoming.

People were dying of comorbidities before, and they're still dying of comorbidities.

Were these shots supposed to get rid of comorbidities? If anything the 2 years of sheltering has likely made them worse. More fat, more diabetes, less overall health.

Does anyone have any liberal numbers for this question?

LikeAnsweringQuestionsOnAmazon. wrote:

real data wrote:

weren't like 99.9% of them 'one foot in the grave' types? no way we should be anywhere near the trendline once we passed the pandemic.......we're talking about a million people, ....chart should look like a huge divot very very soon.

I agree, but was taking a conservative approach.

how would it be anything even close to the trend line though if 90% + (unafialiated approach) were on deaths door? Still talking about a 900,000 person dip...that ain't gonna just blend in. It's gonna be a big 'ol "I told ya so" dip in the data. Soon. 900,000 doesn't lie.

real data wrote:

LikeAnsweringQuestionsOnAmazon. wrote:

I agree, but was taking a conservative approach.

how would it be anything even close to the trend line though if 90% + (unafialiated approach) were on deaths door? Still talking about a 900,000 person dip...that ain't gonna just blend in. It's gonna be a big 'ol "I told ya so" dip in the data. Soon. 900,000 doesn't lie.

Cheese and rice! I told you I agreed, what do you want?

Bad Wigins wrote:

People were dying of comorbidities before, and they're still dying of comorbidities.

Were these shots supposed to get rid of comorbidities? If anything the 2 years of sheltering has likely made them worse. More fat, more diabetes, less overall health.

Did you not understand the math? The ~500,000 excess people who died in 2020 only had a year or so to live. The ~500,000 excess people who died in 2021 also only had a year to live. That's one million people that would have started dying right about now...already dead and accounted for. So they can' die in 2022!

A huge percentage of the people that were going to die in 2022 from old age and health issues have already died. Hence the giant spike in deaths in 2020 and 2021. You can't die in 2022 if you already died in 2021!!

So there's no way the death numbers in 2022 can be anywhere even remotely close to the trend line. Not gonna happen.

There's no avoiding the dip. It's math.

real data wrote:

LikeAnsweringQuestionsOnAmazon. wrote:

We should see a large spike last year over trend, which was going up but not abruptly, post-covid or post-vaccine or post-pandemic, whatever, we should see a drop for the reason of recent excess deaths of the 1 foot in the grave people. We are ahead of the curve on the foot in the grave deaths. Unless there are additional causes of "excess mortality" death of all causes should drop below the recent years prior to Covid/Vaccines. At the worst it should return

near the trend line.

weren't like 99.9% of them 'one foot in the grave' types? no way we should be anywhere near the trendline once we passed the pandemic.......we're talking about a million people, ....chart should look like a huge divot very very soon.

If these people were 'foot in the grave'... why are there excess deaths at all? If they were already going to die this year the excess death baseline should include them. This is fishy. I blame Fauci