Great analysis and agree with your outlook.
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Great analysis and agree with your outlook.
Cool thread. Historical data had the best response. Ive been thinking about this since outdoor 2021.
My guess is almost identical to historical data's.
Imo, most likely is Sherry. He solo'd a 4:03 as a junior, and he's a miler at heart.
Sahlman, and to a much lesser extent the 3 NP juniors have a shot, but NP almost always focuses on the 3200 and I think this year theyll be focusing on it even more with so many guys that could get the record. I think they'll need multiple good mile races to try it at.
Harrison and martin looked really good for it last year but they did fall off quite a bit during XC. Rheinhardt really just needs a healthy, full season imo, whereas Martin really needs a jump in fitness.
Hough is in the same boat as the NP junior trio. More of a 3200 guy, not too fast last year in the mile. (Though he did say his main goal was to go sub 4)
Bergen is probably second most likely. 4:03 last year, hes at altitude, good school with good training, if anything maybe hes more likely than sherry or sahlman.
Izaiah Steury will turn 20 this spring and is ineligible for interscholastic competition in Indiana.
He is running some races unattached though. He will also be competing in college next year
Get Devan Kipyego in the right race and he'll do it.
These the current entries and mile PRs for brooks, wouldnt be too suprised if 1 or 2 more guys other than gary go sub 4
Gary Martin
3:57.98
James Donahue
4:02.50
Zane Bergen
4:02.64
Caleb Lakeman
4:04.46
Isaac Teeples
4:05.55
Charlie North
4:05.61
Aiden Emerson
4:06.10
Christopher Riley
4:07.21
Myles Hogan
4:07.53
Simeon Birnbaum
4:07.88
This aged…poorly. Sub-4 miles are now the norm, there will likely be 1-3 each year from now on. This year is especially strong, and we are already at 2 with a few more potentially possible.
Late May update: with 5 weeks left in the season, my list has been narrowed vastly.
Colin and Gary have already done it, they're off the list.
Gavin Sherry, my #1 prediction has lost the rest of his season due to an injury. Leo Young received a similar fate after a viral infection.
Reinhardt Harrison seems to have ended his own season without reason, after only racing a few good 800s in the Florida regular season. He's currently at altitude in Utah per his Instagram, so it appears he's given up on breaking 4 and is now base training for College.
Brosnan has stated Aaron Sahlman will be only running 800s the rest of the season, so he's out too.
Of my initial list that leaves: Zane Bergen, Lex Young and Riley Hough. Of these three I think Zane is the only one with a real chance this season. Maybe Lex, if that 3:47 was an off-day. Hough is just too slow-twitch to do it in the next month.
However that list was written in the middle of indoor. More names have appeared as possible sub 4's since then. James Donahue, Conner Burns, CJ Singleton, Marco Langon, and then a bunch of other 4:02-5 1600 guys in outdoor (Hanson, Kipyego, Lakeman, Caudillo, Teeples, etc etc)
Of these, I absolutely think James Donahue has a real chance, like Bergen. Burns, Langon, and Singleton are maybes, but still very unlikely. 3% chance for each. None of the other guys I mentioned really have a chance of doing it this season. Guys like Kipyego, Hanson, and Caudillo will have next year though.
My late May prediction: Donahue and Bergen both have a 40-50% chance of doing it this coming month. 4:02 in indoor is legit. It's within reach. I don't think anyone else will get it for the reasons mentioned above.
This has been Jonathan Commentor, baby. Predicting the future since 2011.
Really sad for Leo when we know that he ran 4 flat in his first and only attempt in March, running a good part of the race alone. He was pretty much a lock to do it in the right race, and that would have been incredible as an u18 athlete (born in 2005), only the third ever to do it I believe after Ryun in 1964 and Jakob in 2017.
Rheinhardt Harrison is on the start list at Music City Track Carnival.
Not that means anything... The competition isn't great, and it's in Nashville during the middle of the day in June. It promises to be a wonderful 95 degrees and 90% humidity. Last year boys were dropping like flies, including the Newbury Park boys and several other near 4:00. Classic Harrison going to a low comp meet with terrible weather so he and Tom Schwarz have a built in excuse... Not sure why he wouldn't go to Brooks.
Connor McCormick just ran an altitude 1:51r/9:03/1:54/4:06 quadruple at the Colorado State meet. He defeated Bergen in the 3200 and 1600.
He was also 15th at RunningLane.
Fastest HS distance guy no one's heard of.
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Prep Sub 4 wrote:
Strong Probability (>50% probability)
Colin Sahlman
Leo Young
Lex Young
Gavin Sherry
Riley Hough
Zane Bergen
Low Probability (1-49% probability)
Aaron Sahlman
Rheinhardt Harrison
Gary Martin
Larry Edwards
Jackson Barna
Kenan Pala
I think 5 will do it total.
Who would make your list.
My names were off, but the prediction number may be spot on.
Oof a bad prediction looking back on it lol Harrison/Tinman haters go home devastated again
Wacky how much the outlook has changed in the past few months, and even the last week. Harrison broke 4 tonight, and Aaron Sahlman has moved to the Brooks mile. Gonna be an exciting few weeks :)
historical data wrote:
Here are the junior PRs of all sub-4:00 HS milers since Webb:
Hobbs Kessler: 4:08
Alan Webb: 4:03
Drew Hunter: 4:02
Reed Brown: 4:04
Matthew Maton: 4:03
Grant Fisher: 4:02
Michael Slagowski: 4:08
Leo Daschbach: 4:03
Lukas Verzbicas: 4:04
Of these 9 runners; 7 ran under 4:05 as a junior. So anybody over 4:05 as a junior is already looking at a pretty low chance of going under 4:00, no matter how well they run in XC.
6 of them were top 3 at a national meet in XC. 4 were national champions. I'll also note that Kessler had no real national championship to attend, and pre-injury, Daschbach was the only guy in the country who could hang with Nico Young, and a clear top 3 pick.
Lastly, 7 of them had 800 PBs under 1:52. 4 had PBs under 1:50. The other two were Fisher and Verzbicas, who never ran the open 800 as a junior or senior. They were also both 2-time Foot Locker champions, which none of the current crop can claim.
So now let's look at the contenders. Sherry is the top returner at 4:03 (converted from 4:01 1600). He was under 4:05 as a junior, so that's one box checked. He was also third at Eastbay this year, so he checks that box too. His current 800 PR is 1:54, set at a dual meet. This isn't ideal, but it shows potential for maybe a 1:50 performance this year, which would set him up great to run sub-4:00. If he does that, all he needs is the right race and I think he can do it.
Martin is the next returner, also at 4:03. His 800 PR is 1:53, which is solid. However, he ran it quite a bit more than Sherry, and set that mark in a competitive race. He also failed to place top 3 at a national meet, which is a big strike. Slagowski is really the only guy who was uncompetitive in XC who ever broke 4:00 and he had 1:48 speed and a ridiculous improvement curve. Martin has a chance, but I'm gonna predict a no for him unfortunately.
Next up is Bergen, also at 4:03. If I had to give my top pick for sub-4:00 this year, it would be him. 4:03 as a junior leaves him with only 4 seconds to drop, and his 1:51 at altitude as a junior indicates he has all the speed he needs. His only knock is that he was only 4th at XC nationals, but he was also 4th at BOTH meets. That's impressive enough to give him a great shot in my book.
The other big contender is Sahlman, at 4:04. The only other returner under 4:05, he was dominant outside of his season opener this fall, and clearly is a phenomenally talented distance runner, the best in his class right now. However, his speed is a little bit less impressive. 1:53 is fine, but he will need to improve a bit to break 4:00. However, he did run that a league meet, so it may be that has a 1:50 or so in there. If so, I think he also has a good shot.
Finally, I'll mention Rheinhardt Harrison. After his 4:01 as a sophomore, it seemed a foregone conclusion that he would break 4:00 in high school. However, his races since then have been very much a mixed bag. He ran 1:51 and 4:06 in March last year, and 8:47 in early April. Everything since has been a downward trajectory though. He was undefeated this fall, but he also never really attempted to race any national level meets. Still, he checks 2 out of 3 boxes and is not really a slouch in XC, just untested. If he can figure out how to peak correctly and get in the right race when he's ready for it, I think he has sub-4:00 ability.
Of the rest, the simple fact of being over 4:05 last year nearly automatically disqualifies them from the conversation. Hough and the Youngs were impressive enough in XC that maybe they will give it a scare, but their speed is extremely worrisome (Leo at 1:58, Hough at 1:59, Lex with no time). They have the strength, but I am doubtful of their ability to click off sub-60 quarters. I also don't think anyone else has any kind of shot. The next-best candidate is maybe Izaiah Steury (1:52/4:09, 8th at Eastbay) but he seems like a pretty clear-cut "good, but not good enough" type. Maybe someone will prove me wrong, but I doubt it.
This is interesting info. It helps size up Burns’ 3:58:xx effort.
Prep Sub 4 wrote:
Strong Probability (>50% probability)
Colin Sahlman
Leo Young
Lex Young
Gavin Sherry
Riley Hough
Zane Bergen
Low Probability (1-49% probability)
Aaron Sahlman
Rheinhardt Harrison
Gary Martin
Larry Edwards
Jackson Barna
Kenan Pala
I think 5 will do it total.
Who would make your list.
I think 5 just did it.