Monkeys Skyping wrote:
There are at least two prominent phenomena in the EuroMOMO data.
1) There's a higher and arguably trending "background" excess death rate. When one takes cumulative deaths, summing a small increase in average weekly deaths over 52 weeks, it can be a big number. Cumulative counts accumulate small errors in the baseline as well as any real effect, so care must be used in interpretation. In particular the baselines are all interpolated from 2015-2019 baseline years, so trend errors are magnified as get further from the baseline years. Were there a background problem with vaccine side effects, this is plausibly what it would look like, but there are other factors that are at least as likely manifest.
2) There is a "spike" at the end of last year and into 2023. This is what one might expect from something like a bad winter flu season. It is particularly noticeable in England and Germany, both of which have reported a significant "tripledemic" spike in covid, influenza, and rsv cases, so some combination of these seems the most reasonable explanation of that artifact.
Thank you for the response. I didn’t actually look at the data as I didn’t post the video. Hard to characterize Campbell as a grifter, and I believe he is vaccinated with the primary series, but that’s not to say he doesn’t have an agenda. But I asked you specifically and nobody else, because I felt like you would at least try to accurately assess what’s actually reflected.
So I appreciate this thorough response, which was better than your last one, and I take your point about “cumulative” excess deaths. As far as EuroMomo sounding a cautionary tale about interpreting their data, some of it is because deaths aren’t registered in a timely manner, so the final count isn’t reflected as the data is reported, even though it’s reported in arrears.
You are very possibly correct that this is an uptick in Covid/flu/RSV, as well as heat-related deaths owing to the heat waves. But, I’ve also been told on this thread that there’s nothing unusual about flu/RSV this winter. I disagree but I digress. That there would be an uptick needs to be explained away as well.
Could be an artifact in the data, could be something else going on here. Presupposing it’s flu/RSV/Covid-22 doesn’t make it so.
