loblaw wrote:
Interesting that the women's field may likely be significantly smaller than the men's, especially given that US women's marathoning is stronger and deeper on the world level than the men.
Tokyo:
US Women: 3-17-DNF (hard to imagine an Alphine at decent health & fitness not finishing top 30)
US Men: 8-29-41
Doha WC '19:
US Women: 6-13-38
US Men: 23-38-46
London WC '17:
US Women: 3-11-37
US Men: 16-42-DNF
Rio '16:
US Women: 6-7-9
US Men: 3-6-33
Fewer women compete on the world level, and even in the United States there is a large lack of depth in women's running. Our top women are running 2:20-2:27:00 (several in this range)... Our top guys are running 2:06-2:10:59 (several in this range). 2:37 is 10 minutes slower than the relevant women runners. 2:18 is only 7 or 8 minutes from our relevant men's runners. 2:18 is 17 minutes off the world record, 2:37 is 23!!! minutes off the women's world record. I think these standards are pretty equal, it's just that there is less depth in women's running and so we may see fewer women in the field.
Look at any US championship road race. The time span from the winner to 10th place is massive compared to the time span from 1st to 10th for the men's races. Just this weekend at USATF half marathon champs the gap from 1st to 2nd for women was same as 1st to 8th for the men. So an 8th place runner on the men has just as much hope to become the champion the next year as a 2nd place woman. So similarly the 200th man has just as much hope to qualify for the olympics as the 130th woman (both not great odds).