Would Newbury Park have won D3?

Ghost of Ward Cleaver wrote:

Engineer of Plates wrote:

Ian Lamere ran 9:39 in HS. He became a mulit time NCAA champ in D3 and ran 28:38 winning the Stanford 10k beating the best D1 runners. Some of these dummies are trying to have us believe that the NP guys could beat the college Lemere because their high school times are faster than HS Lamere.

Yep, and Tim Nelson only broke 10:00 once in high school and went on to run 13:57! My point is NP currently has four guys that broke 9:00 and their 5th ran 9:10. Those kids should be able to step into a D3 meet and be competitive even at 8k. Very few D3 teams get sub 9:10 talent as incoming recruits on a regular basis and to get five kids like that even at D1 would be a great incoming class.

I absolutely agree they can step in right now and be competitive. Maybe even come in top 3. But I also think you may need to adjust your expectations on D3 recruits a bit. Pomona had 4 sub 9:20 recruits this year (yes that isn't the same a 9:10's or sub 9:00's) but none of those even made it on the traveling team. The NP boys wouldn't be racing the first years on Pomona or MIT or Williams. They would be racing the Jr's and Sr's. who are now significantly faster than their HS performances.

I think you should list the real times here for people. Wartbug's 5th appears to be 30 seconds faster than NP's 5th.

NP should have 4 guys under 8:50, probably a few under 8:40 for the 3200m. It's not hard to imagine them having 4 runners in the top 15 on the 3k list indoors for D3. If you think they'd be 10th, you really aren't looking at the times and have a poor sense for ability.

Engineer of Plates wrote:

I think you should list the real times here for people. Wartbug's 5th appears to be 30 seconds faster than NP's 5th.

what's wrong with looking at Track PR's?

Their track times have already been posted above. They currently have better marks than the #1 ranked team and the team that actually won, when looking at those schools ALL TIME Lists!

Not sure which direction you are going with your last sentence?

Wartburg's outdoor 5,000 list in 2021:

14:00, 14:22, 14:29, 14:38, 14:50

I think NP would put 3 in front of Wartburg's 2, and 4 in front of 4 and that's a conservative projection. The 5th would be behind Wartburg's 5th but I don't think by that much. Nico ran 13:50 in high school, right? And they currently have at least 3 of him, and a 4th that's close. Compared to Wartburg, they are likely much better at the 5k on the track.

Ghost of Ward Cleaver wrote:

Engineer of Plates wrote:

I think you should list the real times here for people. Wartbug's 5th appears to be 30 seconds faster than NP's 5th.

what's wrong with looking at Track PR's?

Because we are talking about cross country? A completely different sport to track.

pollsrstupid wrote:

Ghost of Ward Cleaver wrote:

what's wrong with looking at Track PR's?

Because we are talking about cross country? A completely different sport to track.

5k on the track translates pretty well to 8k cross country.

Engineer of Plates wrote:

The thread is comparing NP to the current teams. NP would only finish about 10th in D3. This thread actually tarnishes their reputation when people realize that they are slower than a bunch of guys who didn't go D1.

We have a winner.

To answer the OP, the only thing that matters is what the NP guys are running today, and what the college guys are running today. Because if they raced, it would be "today" and what the college guys did four years ago is no more relevant than what the NP guys might do in four years. The race is "today."

AND, to answer the question, the race would take place at the college distance, not a high school 5K.

I wouldn't say that it would be a total bloodbath, but I would say it would be a clear beat down.

Pomona-Pitzer won with times of 24:01, 24:02, 24:04, 24:10, and 24:17 (and 24:18 and 24:32 for added measure). NP wouldn't get a sniff of that. In particular, the points that would be scored by NP's fifth man make this conversation laughable.

Newbury Park tempo's faster then those guys. Not even close. NP would win by 100 points

Reply to myself to add; this isn't a question about a dual meet. The question is whether NP would win D3.

The winning score was 80 points.

There is no reasonable argument that puts the NP fifth man inside the top 80 (24:41) and he would probably score something around 150 to 230 points (25:05 to 25:45). Or worse.

Why not have a 5k on the track? You really think NP would get crushed by many D3 teams comparing top five 5k times on a legit distance, which would need to be on a track because most should realize that many CC courses are not accurately measured.

The top 4 NP boys have run times that would convert pretty well to those times. Someone tell me what 13:38 for three miles converts to for an 8k?

RossiCheated wrote:

Reply to myself to add; this isn't a question about a dual meet. The question is whether NP would win D3.

The winning score was 80 points.

There is no reasonable argument that puts the NP fifth man inside the top 80 (24:41) and he would probably score something around 150 to 230 points (25:05 to 25:45). Or worse.

You are assuming Tom Sawyer is 8k and you know what happens when you assume, right?

I think we all know that the 5th guy kinda buries NP for this. The gap might get worse in an 8K.

I'll say they adapt to the distance and run great with the top 4 running between 23:43 and 23:57. That is 5-6-7-8 in team scoring 25 points which is the best top 4 in D3. However, their 5th is 45 seconds back in a 5K and doing some easy math for an 8K that stretches out to 72 seconds. Let's say that puts him at 25:02. That's 100 points and puts their team score at 125. 3rd place. Is 72 seconds gap too high? I really don't think so. We've already established the 5th runner is a good 3200m runner, so the move up to 8K is going to hurt him and expand the gap possibly more than 72 seconds. They're all running 60 mpw which is on the low end of guys in the field who have more mileage over years.

Another winner! You are correct. Looking at the guys who finished 79-80-81 in the race,

79 - 14:39 5k

80 - 14:22 5k

81 - 3:49 1500

I doubt even all of the top 4 NP guys would beat these 3 and the NP 5th is not even in the conversation.

I accept this answer.

Not me. You can go through the list of finishers and find many guys with better PRs than the NP guys who did not run well in a national meet environment in Kentucky in 40 degree windy weather. Several NP guys would have fared the same.

I'm going back to my original post and will leave it at that.

They actually should be able to beat many college teams at all levels...very few D3 teams get sub 9:00 3200 m kids as recruits and even many D1 programs rarely get sub 9:00 kids.

Yes 8k would be a stretch but this team is loaded with talent!

I do hope they run Foot Locker just to see how many they can qualify and see how those guys stack up against the rest of the country.